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That much is true, however, in today's environment, no individual analyst can gather and process enough actionable insight fast enough to increase odds appreciably. It would take literally a cadre of analysts to gather enough insight to make those critical distinctions. That cadre costs money, but with their insights collected together I believe a reliably profitable path can be traversed. The question is whether anyone putting together such a cadre would be willing to make that path open to the public. Answer: No. They charge a toll that research shows generally eats up the advantage plus a little.
i was watching charles royce on consuelo mac. his royce pennsylvania fund has taken honors for the 5,10,15,20,25, and last 30 year periods beating his index consistantly.
interesting concept he uses. basically he always seems to lag the 5 year time frame because he stays away from whats hot. eventually whats hot turns luke warm or cold and drags the indexes down.
he avoided financials the last few years so he is lagging once again the last 4 years but starting at 5 years he pulls ahead again.
even one of the best fund managers to date finds playing the short term can be very dangerouss and hazardous to your wealth over the long term..
they also hold their stocks for relatively long periods of time averaging about a 15-20% turnover.
i was watching charles royce on consuelo mac. his royce pennsylvania fund has taken honors for the 5,10,15,20,25, and last 30 year periods beating his index consistantly.
interesting concept he uses. basically he always seems to lag the 5 year time frame because he stays away from whats hot. eventually whats hot turns luke warm or cold and drags the indexes down.
he avoided financials the last few years so he is lagging once again the last 4 years but starting at 5 years he pulls ahead again.
even one of the best fund managers to date finds playing the short term can be very dangerouss and hazardous to your wealth over the long term..
they also hold their stocks for relatively long periods of time averaging about a 15-20% turnover.
Mathjak, that is 1 fund out of how many? 2500?
if the MAJORITY of funds were like that, this would mean something, however the OVERWHELMING majority of funds lose to their benchmarks over the long term due to high fees/survivorship bias/style drift/fund getting to large/etc, and as you know so well, you can't invest in the rear view mirror..
If you or anyone else can tell me with certainty who the next charles royce will be, then active proponents will be onto something. Otherwise, its a crapshoot.
The ones that have a fighting chance to exceed their benchmarks are funds that have lower fees and lower turnover...
People hate to hear this, but the facts are facts, and have to be repeated for new posters who think guys like him can be predicted and are the norm which is really not the case....
no, It is what it is. It is a comment about a particular manager and his short term views as an investment strategy and not a discussion of the usual index vs managed.
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-30-2013 at 05:43 AM..
It was a discussion about short term movements, but your post previously had nothing to do with that...it was about a certain fund manager who supposedly happened to outperform over long periods of time....how does that have to do w/short term trading? I didn't bring it up, you did.
charles royce's belief is many times you are better off forgetting about the short term moves and what is hot at that time. it certainly does fit into the discussion.
when analyzing technicals as some one mentioned all lights may be green at the moment but that may not be the best way to look at things.
charles royce has a different view of that which has led to his success..
charles royce's belief is many times you are better off forgetting about the short term moves and what is hot at that time. it certainly does fit into the discussion.
when analyzing technicals as some one mentioned all lights may be green at the moment but that may not be the best way to look at things.
charles royce has a different view of that which has led to his success..
He is no different than anyone else who advocates against worrying about the 'noise' in the market....which is the short term nonsense that goes on every day.
Many of us long term investors advocate that every day! Noise is predictable, you just will never know the degree to any certainty! Those who THINK they do are lying.
Lets not get crazy here....I mean really....companies like ie Vanguard advocate that every day...How is that a 'different view'? lol
no, vanguards view is not the same thing. as an example the indexes are loaded with financials which are exactly whats hot . in fact the hotter something is the more they dominate the index. royce's stratagy is exactly the opposite so no we are not talking the same thing.
royce is not talking avoiding the noise. he is talking about avoiding the stuff that is hot and what short term trading indicators indicate are a go.
totally different strategy.
again this is one managers view, i don't want another debate of indexing or not.
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-30-2013 at 07:28 AM..
no, vanguards view is not the same thing. as an example the indexes are loaded with financials which are exactly whats hot .
You are misleading readers.
Investors hold index funds not because they are loaded with financials (your example of hot stocks) but because they are diversified over 3000+ stocks.
Your statement implies index funds chase noise and hot stocks, which is far from truth.
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