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Hey, y'all. I predicted this downturn. Just forgot to post it on the day I predicted it. I've had all my money in CDs for 20 years and converted from Canadian dollars to US dollars in January 2013. Who's laughing now?
Sarcasm is what they use after they've been proven wrong
I figured this out a long time ago. The small percentage gains that one might get with true, active investing wasn't worth the time or aggravation. Better to just work and save.
Right, I've been trying to tell these guys that for nearly a year now. Who the hell wants to go through a 20 - 30 year boom cycle, bust cycle, boom cycle, bust cycle, cycle, cycle, cycle....just to at the end of the day earn 1% - 2% more than what the Long Term CD rates during the time period were?
When you are going through a bust, your money is GONE. You have to wait until the next boom cycle comes along before it comes back.
But here's the kicker, are we going to see another boom period with a DOW 18k ever again? This is why those saying to "buy, buy, buy" when the DOW was at 18k made literally no sense, did you really think we would ever see DOW 20k lol?
Right, I've been trying to tell these guys that for nearly a year now. Who the hell wants to go through a 20 - 30 year boom cycle, bust cycle, boom cycle, bust cycle, cycle, cycle, cycle....just to at the end of the day earn 1% - 2% more than what the Long Term CD rates during the time period were?
When you are going through a bust, your money is GONE. You have to wait until the next boom cycle comes along before it comes back.
But here's the kicker, are we going to see another boom period with a DOW 18k ever again? This is why those saying to "buy, buy, buy" when the DOW has at 18k made literally no sense, did you really think we would ever see DOW 20k lol?
The only one who makes meaningful money is the broker and those running the funds.
Now, I hate to tell everybody I told you so on this forum, but I had been preaching that the Stock market was over-valued (it still is) and once the Fed began to increase the fed funds rate back to normal levels, the HIGH DEMAND for stocks would drop off and people would start balancing back out into fixed income areas such as bonds and even CDs.
I told you this.
This is why the mantra of "throw money in a fund, hold it there for 20 years and it will magically go up" is complete and utter non-sense. The people who make the REAL MONEY with the market are those who strategically manage and time the market, you know, they do things that the financial advisers tell you NOT to do because they want to fool you into giving your money over to them for management.
Even at 15,600 (where the DOW is as I type) that's STILL over-valued. There's been nothing going on in this economy that justified a 18,000 DOW...I TOLD YOU THIS.
The real value of the stock market right now should be about 10,000 - 11,000. If you are looking for a buying opportunity, I wouldn't buy any stock until it goes under 12,000 give or take. Putting money in RIGHT NOW is just asking for a loss.
But of course nobody here is going to listen to me
300% in gains since 2008 have to level out and regress closer to the norm at some point .
all time frames do .
even the fact gains sucked since 2000 are offset by the fact longer term the years leading up were the greatest in history , 17 years averaging almost 14% .
even after leveling out , long term all time frames still did better then most anything else .
leveling out the gains have always been a part of investing and always will be .
I am so happy jotucker and richrf finally found each other, it's a match made in heaven and I think they will have many years of happiness together!
Definitely refreshing to find someone who's economic and investing acumen goes beyond 60/40 and 50/50. It was getting to a point where I was praying for some new ideas like 40/60.
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