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Old 03-19-2020, 07:15 AM
 
5,989 posts, read 6,793,295 times
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It's true. The "Bye Bye Boomer" virus is really gonna be the end of the Silent generation, and the remnants of the Greatest generation. Also, some of the boomers, all our people in nursing homes, lots of our sick and vulnerable.

It won't be the revolution that the Black Death was for European society, but honestly, it will solve a lot of problems for the younger people. They'll inherit, they won't have to support the elderly.
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Old 03-20-2020, 11:08 AM
 
30,084 posts, read 18,698,166 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heart84 View Post
I think you did the smart thing. Upside before the election (well before) is probably in the 28-29K range. I think once it hits that range there will be a substantial downturn before the election. As Selden would say "THEY" want a reset sooner than later. Lots of bad debt and malinvestments out there. Trump is the easiest person in the world to blame it all on. He bragged it was all him on the way up, so on the way down......

This reset has been in the making for multiple administrations now, but "THEY" know that Trump will be the easiest candidate to blame it all on and have the average mouth breather in the public go along with the narrative. I think the only question before the election is does it get bad or REALLY bad. Much better buying opportunities ahead. Aside from a few beaten down individual stocks I am long the dollar and UUP right now.
What exactly is going to drive the market higher with an anticipated 25% drop in GDP, massive increase in unemployment, cratering corporate earnings, and generally a nationwide suspension of commerce for a month?

What in the world do you think would drive a market 50% higher in this immediate environment?
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Old 03-20-2020, 11:10 AM
 
30,084 posts, read 18,698,166 times
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Originally Posted by parentologist View Post
It's true. The "Bye Bye Boomer" virus is really gonna be the end of the Silent generation, and the remnants of the Greatest generation. Also, some of the boomers, all our people in nursing homes, lots of our sick and vulnerable.

It won't be the revolution that the Black Death was for European society, but honestly, it will solve a lot of problems for the younger people. They'll inherit, they won't have to support the elderly.
Don't hold your breath.

The worst case scenario is 2 million deaths in the US. I don't think it will eliminate a generation like a 30-40% reduction in the population from the Black Plague.
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Old 03-20-2020, 11:25 AM
 
545 posts, read 193,299 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
The worst case scenario is 2 million deaths in the US. I don't think it will eliminate a generation like a 30-40% reduction in the population from the Black Plague.
Well, we are at 223 deaths (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) so some how we got 1,999,777 deaths to go in the US right? When are they all going to start tallying?

Dude this was a dumb idea and you know it. Come on man.....if we get 300,000 people INFECTED with this virus that would be a shock.

- I think we might might get a total of 100,000 to 300,000 infected in the country worse case. And this is without a Great Shutdown. With The Great Shutdown, you might see a minor dent, but not that much. Overall, I don't see no more than 100,000 to 300,000 people infected when this thing is all said and done.

- From those 100,000 to 300,000 people, you will see 2,000 to 6,000 deaths! That's it!

- But from The Great Shutdown, with all of the mental health problems, bankruptcies, job losses, business shutdowns, etc., expect to see over 100,000 people have died over complications from this!

This is just flat out a blunder. A blunder, a blunder, a blunder!
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Old 03-20-2020, 11:30 AM
 
3,372 posts, read 1,569,939 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
What exactly is going to drive the market higher with an anticipated 25% drop in GDP, massive increase in unemployment, cratering corporate earnings, and generally a nationwide suspension of commerce for a month?

What in the world do you think would drive a market 50% higher in this immediate environment?

Record easing everywhere by central banks. Record liquidity injections. And a race to zero or negative rates. They just announced they are conducting $1 trillion daily repo operations for at least the rest of the month. Helicopter money is near too. Add to that a likely $3-$4 trillion more in easing operations over the next month or so. That is on top of the $1 trillion+ they have already pledged.

All of this record liquidity will provide one last adrenaline shot. But after that adrenaline wears off...... TIMBER!!!
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Old 03-20-2020, 11:34 AM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,599 posts, read 17,334,751 times
Reputation: 37373
Quote:
Originally Posted by parentologist View Post
It's true. The "Bye Bye Boomer" virus is really gonna be the end of the Silent generation, and the remnants of the Greatest generation. Also, some of the boomers, all our people in nursing homes, lots of our sick and vulnerable.

It won't be the revolution that the Black Death was for European society, but honestly, it will solve a lot of problems for the younger people. They'll inherit, they won't have to support the elderly.
It's kinda looking like they won't inherit much. Downturn has a long way to go, I think.

And maybe this will save Social Security, between all the dead seniors and all those fat college kids hanging at the beach. Fat kids don't draw Social Security.



I'm retired; I can say that.
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Old 03-20-2020, 11:34 AM
 
3,372 posts, read 1,569,939 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post

And if things "get REALLY bad", by what reasoning ought we to be "long the dollar"?
From a question I received back in April 2019 at the start of this thread. Cash is KING when things "get REALLY bad."
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Old 03-20-2020, 11:36 AM
 
2,609 posts, read 2,301,322 times
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The majority of my stocks are Apple and Amazon, and they are both holding up. I don’t plan to cash out, I can live without ever withdrawing this money. We will have to see how this plays out. But eventually the economy will come back to life.
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Old 03-20-2020, 11:38 AM
 
492 posts, read 235,301 times
Reputation: 613
Quote:
Originally Posted by heart84 View Post
Record easing everywhere by central banks. Record liquidity injections. And a race to zero or negative rates. They just announced they are conducting $1 trillion daily repo operations for at least the rest of the month. Helicopter money is near too. Add to that a likely $3-$4 trillion more in easing operations over the next month or so. That is on top of the $1 trillion+ they have already pledged.

All of this record liquidity will provide one last adrenaline shot. But after that adrenaline wears off...... TIMBER!!!
When they blow the trumpet that everything is ok. Remmeber though just like with parabolic rises comes that fast decline we can get a sharp bounce back. The fall has been parabolic. Just be patient. Real estate reset comes next, job losses, all bad stuff. This is a time to figure out where and who will the leaders be next. Do some critical thinking for crying out load.
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Old 03-20-2020, 11:43 AM
 
545 posts, read 193,299 times
Reputation: 464
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnDABaptist View Post
When they blow the trumpet that everything is ok. Remmeber though just like with parabolic rises comes that fast decline we can get a sharp bounce back. The fall has been parabolic. Just be patient. Real estate reset comes next, job losses, all bad stuff. This is a time to figure out where and who will the leaders be next. Do some critical thinking for crying out load.
Correct! If they got on TV on Saturday and said: "We have this under control and are testing efficiently, with healthcare system resources organized. There will be more confirmed cases and some unfortunate deaths, but we as a country have this under control. We are now asking for a gradual lift in the shutdowns in chunks over time where over the next 2 weeks we will have everything back up and running. We will start by turning back on our schools starting April 1st."

If they did that, the stock market next week would soar like never before in history! Now, will the DOW gain all 10,000 points back immediately to get back to 30,000 highs, probably not, but a solid 5,000 bump in a short period of time is something that I would predict!
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