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19% is a pretty big drop, statistically drops like that are pretty uncommon in the stock market. In the last 90 years (since 1929) there have only been 21 of them or an average of once every 4.3 years.
So, if the average is once every 4.3 years what is the likelihood that we're going to have back to back 20% declines, not likely at all.
Sure, anything can happen in the markets but statistically if you're waiting for another 20% drop you may be waiting for a LONG time... or on average in 2023, but the problem is that the market could essentially double by then and then drop 20%, which wouldn't work out too good...so timing it isn't very prudent.
There's a virulent strand in American culture, that insists that "safety is no accident". Wear your seat belt, obey the speed limit, stay sober, and you'll never be injured in a car-accident. Eat healthily, exercise, don't smoke, have regular medical checkups, and you'll remain healthy.
Invest regularly, diversify, avoid panic and be patient - and you'll never see your portfolio collapse.
The implication is that injury, disease, or poverty are a personal moral failing. It's from bad habits, bad judgment, hubris, stupidity. Inversely, success comes from good behavior, fortitude, wisdom. The American mentality can't conceive that sometimes - indeed, often! - even the best planning leads to nasty surprises. We have far less control over our futures, than we think. And we should take far less credit for our success, than we do.
Yes. If there’s one thing that defines American culture and attitude, it is the above. It’s been called the “just world hypothesis.” It basically boils down to the belief that “people get what they deserve.” And that attitude is reflected in our politics, economic ideology, and investment strategy.
if we end the year at SPX 3100 which is the popular consensus then mathematically it has to go down before it goes up as there are still 40+ trading days left and only 44 points up. My guess is it may go down 5% before it rockets up again... unless we overshoot and then drop back down.
Yes. If there’s one thing that defines American culture and attitude, it is the above. It’s been called the “just world hypothesis.” It basically boils down to the belief that “people get what they deserve.” And that attitude is reflected in our politics, economic ideology, and investment strategy.
That's why I invest in beer, tattoo's, and lottery tickets!
Let's maintain a spreadsheet of all the new "all time highs" and also the drops below the All Time Highs
I actually maintained a record of all the new all time highs my portfolio hit this year, today would be the 28th time it's hitting a new all time high. 2019 has been a good year if the next 2 months hold.
That's why I invest in beer, tattoo's, and lottery tickets!
You forgot piercings, cigarettes, and plastic facsimile testicles to be hung from the rear-bumpers of pickup trucks.
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