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Well guys, I thought about it a bit and I did cancel the "Sell" transaction in Vanguard. It wasn't going to be processed until Monday anyway. So I'm still in the market.
Listen, I'll be perfectly honest with you here. I'm scared as hell. I've watched a month ago my account be at $171,000 to now at $118,000 and I'm afraid the thing is going to drop down even further before a recovery takes place. So I was thinking, why not just move some money out and wait until The Great Shutdown is over?
I'm thinking as long as The Great Shutdown is going on, it's going to keep going down and down and down and down. When it's over, then it will start back on the roller coaster ride up, not a consistent UP, but a ride up over time.
But it looks like to me it's going nowhere but continually DOWN until The Great Shutdown is over. So why ride it all the way down? I'm a big proponent of not timing the market, but at this point I'm honestly afraid we are going to DOW 15000 fast.
Well guys, I thought about it a bit and I did cancel the "Sell" transaction in Vanguard. It wasn't going to be processed until Monday anyway. So I'm still in the market.
Listen, I'll be perfectly honest with you here. I'm scared as hell. I've watched a month ago my account be at $171,000 to now at $118,000 and I'm afraid the thing is going to drop down even further before a recovery takes place. So I was thinking, why not just move some money out and wait until The Great Shutdown is over?
I'm thinking as long as The Great Shutdown is going on, it's going to keep going down and down and down and down. When it's over, then it will start back on the roller coaster ride up, not a consistent UP, but a ride up over time.
But it looks like to me it's going nowhere but continually DOWN until The Great Shutdown is over. So why ride it all the way down? I'm a big proponent of not timing the market, but at this point I'm honestly afraid we are going to DOW 15000 fast.
I know man..we all are. But I've done the market time thing. I was so stressed I couldn't sleep and I lost 10 percent of the way up...just flat out froze. If you are long term relax..it will come back. Also your dollars are nothing compared to others.
Remember , if this makes you feel better. As soon as there is a treatment and the numbers peak, every Tom, Dick and Harry who bailed on the market is gonna freak out and get right in. I wouldn't doubt if the market spikes 10 or 15 percent THAT DAY.... you want to miss that? You think you are miserable on the way down , missing on the way up is worse.
Only problem is this time after the initial spike there are other factors and well, it won't be V shape.
I gotta say, I just cannot wrap my head around the enormity and complexity of the economic rubble and wreckage which will need to be put right once we are through this ..... and then there is the fear it may happen again later.
Pulled some money out last week - enough to easily get through next ten years. Still, I'm thinking 73% of Jan. 1, 2020 portfolio which is what it will probably be after Monday's upcoming bloodbath - I should take it and run, wait this out and buy back in when I 'think' the dust has settled.
I am very old and remember 2008/09 well - but these are entirely uncharted waters.
I gotta say, I just cannot wrap my head around the enormity and complexity of the economic rubble and wreckage which will need to be put right once we are through this ..... and then there is the fear it may happen again later.
Pulled some money out last week - enough to easily get through next ten years. Still, I'm thinking 73% of Jan. 1, 2020 portfolio which is what it will probably be after Monday's upcoming bloodbath - I should take it and run, wait this out and buy back in when I 'think' the dust has settled.
I am very old and remember 2008/09 well - but these are entirely uncharted waters.
I have no idea how to think about this.
So then should I stay the course or move the monies to the side for a minute, and get back in after The Great Shutdown? I too am thinking this is like something we haven't seen in 100 years so I'm just honestly, not really sure right now. I'm a little stressed lol. Been drinking.
Well guys, I thought about it a bit and I did cancel the "Sell" transaction in Vanguard. It wasn't going to be processed until Monday anyway. So I'm still in the market.
Listen, I'll be perfectly honest with you here. I'm scared as hell. I've watched a month ago my account be at $171,000 to now at $118,000 and I'm afraid the thing is going to drop down even further before a recovery takes place. So I was thinking, why not just move some money out and wait until The Great Shutdown is over?
I'm thinking as long as The Great Shutdown is going on, it's going to keep going down and down and down and down. When it's over, then it will start back on the roller coaster ride up, not a consistent UP, but a ride up over time.
But it looks like to me it's going nowhere but continually DOWN until The Great Shutdown is over. So why ride it all the way down? I'm a big proponent of not timing the market, but at this point I'm honestly afraid we are going to DOW 15000 fast.
I think all of us are scared or at the very least concerned. I don't even have close to as much money in the market as you and have a very long time horizon but I'm concerned as well. My strategy is to play the percentages. Since I don't have time to become an expert in the market I'm a buy and hold investor, even in times like this. Not sure if you watch baseball but that's a game where managers will often play percentages. Ex. runner on first with no out. Next batter sacrifices the runner to second because over thousands of scenarios that produces the most number of average runs (not saying it's true, just an example). Same with buying and holding or investing in index funds. It won't always work for the better but it will more often than not.
I'm thinking as long as The Great Shutdown is going on, it's going to keep going down and down and down and down. When it's over, then it will start back on the roller coaster ride up, not a consistent UP, but a ride up over time.
But it looks like to me it's going nowhere but continually DOWN until The Great Shutdown is over. So why ride it all the way down? I'm a big proponent of not timing the market, but at this point I'm honestly afraid we are going to DOW 15000 fast.
You are absolutely correct - barring some white knight event, this is our trajectory going forward for a significant period of time. Shutdown of everything for three-four months. Unthinkable.
Frankly, I think your prediction of 15,000 is too generous. This can go to 10,000 if it lasts long enough. That's my fear. With years of recovery to even get to even.
You are absolutely correct - barring some white knight event, this is our trajectory going forward for a significant period of time. Shutdown of everything. Unthinkable.
Frankly, I think your prediction of 15,000 is too generous. This can go to 10,000, easy, if it lasts long enough. That's my fear. With years of recovery to even get to even.
This is my exact fear. But it's like people are telling me that if I move the monies out until The Great Shutdown is over, I might miss a huge UP day. But I'm wondering, is a huge UP day (that isn't followed immediately by a huge down day) possible during this Great Shutdown?
That's just why I'm confused here? Why is it seeming one way or the other? Why is it seeming you are an Active Trader timing the market, or you are a Buy/Hold/Never Look At Your Portfolio For Forever Investor?
Why isn't there like a group in the middle, that buys, holds, and sort of "watches" for CLEARLY major market crisis events and moves out of equities until it calms down? No, I'm not talking about a bad news report or a recession or business cycle. I'm talking about if we are CLEARLY headed into the financial credit meltdown of 2008, or if we are CLEARLY in the middle of The Great Shutdown....isn't it clear as day stocks are going down? And if I ride it all the way to the bottom, won't it take longer to recover?
This is my exact fear. But it's like people are telling me that if I move the monies out until The Great Shutdown is over, I might miss a huge UP day. But I'm wondering, is a huge UP day (that isn't followed immediately by a huge down day) possible during this Great Shutdown?
That's just why I'm confused here? Why is it seeming one way or the other? Why is it seeming you are an Active Trader timing the market, or you are a Buy/Hold/Never Look At Your Portfolio For Forever Investor?
Why isn't there like a group in the middle, that buys, holds, and sort of "watches" for CLEARLY major market crisis events and moves out of equities until it calms down? No, I'm not talking about a bad news report or a recession or business cycle. I'm talking about if we are CLEARLY headed into the financial credit meltdown of 2008, or if we are CLEARLY in the middle of The Great Shutdown....isn't it clear as day stocks are going down? And if I ride it all the way to the bottom, won't it take longer to recover?
That's what I'm not understanding here.
Well, this is the MOTHER of all market crises, imo. Whoever thought an entire economy would be shut down for months? We've never been here before.
During the financial crisis, Dow peaked at 14,164 on 10/09/07 - Dow bottomed at 6,469 on 10/09/09 - a 54% drop.
To date, in 2020, Dow has lost 35%, going from 29,551.42 on 2/12/20 to 19,173.98 on 03/20/20.
I got out of the market in Feb. 09 (avoiding another six months' downdraft) and reinvested in 5% CDs for a few years. I missed the quick bounceback, but shortly thereafter I lost my job. I would have been SICK if my retirement fund had lost 50% of its value at the age of 67.
And, yes, the old adage buy and hold usually is best. But even old and experienced money managers don't know what to make of this. They publicly admit on CNBC there is nothing in our history to compare it to. That is what is scary.
Bill Ackman, a man who has made and lost billions, made a comment on CNBC on last Monday's Halftime Report. They replayed it later. His voice was shaking. He said he wakes up with nightmares about this. The market went into a tizzy after these comments, so he's walked them back somewhat. And been criticized by other financial people for being so reckless.
In our current situation, stay the course is probably not the smartest - because it is going lower. There may be a relief rally or dead cat bounce along the way.
I'm probably selling, but not Monday, which will be a bloodbath. There may be some uptick during the week. There was a significant uptick last week Tuesday after Monday's rout.
Worse comes to worse, it's not out of the realm trading will be suspended at some point. I don't see how this can go on - because the turnaround is at least three or four months away.
Yes, in today's scenario, there doesn't appear to be any logic whatsoever in riding this down another 20% or more. I heard a very credible female money person say she thought there could easily be another 30% drop. Not out of the realm because we have no idea where we are or where we are going.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 03-21-2020 at 09:06 PM..
Well, this is the MOTHER of all market crises, imo. Whoever thought an entire economy would be shut down for months? We've never been here before.
During the financial crisis, Dow peaked at 14,164 on 10/09/07 - Dow bottomed at 6,469 on 10/09/09 - a 54% drop.
To date, in 2020, Dow has lost 35%, going from 29,551.42 on 2/12/20 to 19,173.98 on 03/20/20.
I got out of the market in Feb. 09 (avoiding another six months' downdraft) and reinvested in 5% CDs for a few years. I missed the quick bounceback, but shortly thereafter I lost my job. I would have been SICK if my money had lost 50% of its value at the age of 67.
And, yes, the old adage buy and hold usually is best. But even old and experienced money managers don't know what to make of this. They publicly admit on CNBC there is nothing in our history to compare it to. That is what is scary.
Bill Ackman, a man who has made and lost billions, made a comment on CNBC on last Monday's half-time report. They replayed it later. His voice was shaking. He said he wakes up with nightmares about this. The market went into a tizzy after these comments, so he's walked them back somewhat And been criticized by other financial people for it.
In our current situation, stay the course is probably not the smartest - because it is going lower. There may be a relief rally or dead cat bounce along the way.
I'm probably selling, but not Monday, which will be a bloodbath. There may be some uptick during the week. There was a significant uptick last week Tuesday after Monday's rout.
Worse comes to worse, it's not out of the realm trading will be suspended at some point. I don't see how this can go on - because the turnaround is at least three or four months away.
So everything you just said are my EXACT.....exact....concerns.
And literally everyone I talk to (who are many Bogleheads) are telling me to just stay the course and don't worry about it. They aren't treating this Great Shutdown like it's a different situation. They are just going on with business as usual and even adding more monies.
I'm honestly torn on what to do right now.
- One part of me says do what Jack Bogle always said, stay the course, focus on the long term, and stay in the market as the UP days you don't want to miss in terms of growth.
- Then another part of me says, the market is going to bleed all the way down to DOW 15000 (or lower) due to major major sections of our economy flat out shut down. Even States shut down. I couldn't predict this situation so it's not my fault as I'm not trying to TIME any markets. But just get out and put the money on the side for now to avoid the further roller coaster ride down. When The Great Shutdown is lifted, put the monies back in. Worse case, I would only be out of the markets for no more than 2 or 3 months. I'm thinking the rest of the month and April will be BLOOD BATHS.
So which side do I listen to here? Bogleheads are saying the second side is just my fear talking and that I'm making an irrational emotional decision.
So everything you just said are my EXACT.....exact....concerns.
And literally everyone I talk to (who are many Bogleheads) are telling me to just stay the course and don't worry about it. They aren't treating this Great Shutdown like it's a different situation. They are just going on with business as usual and even adding more monies.
I'm honestly torn on what to do right now.
- One part of me says do what Jack Bogle always said, stay the course, focus on the long term, and stay in the market as the UP days you don't want to miss in terms of growth.
- Then another part of me says, the market is going to bleed all the way down to DOW 15000 (or lower) due to major major sections of our economy flat out shut down. Even States shut down. I couldn't predict this situation so it's not my fault as I'm not trying to TIME any markets. But just get out and put the money on the side for now to avoid the further roller coaster ride down. When The Great Shutdown is lifted, put the monies back in. Worse case, I would only be out of the markets for no more than 2 or 3 months. I'm thinking the rest of the month and April will be BLOOD BATHS.
So which side do I listen to here? Bogleheads are saying the second side is just my fear talking and that I'm making an irrational emotional decision.
Why are you fixated on the bottom? Even if this drags out for a few months it will eventually end and the market will go back up. Yes, it could takes years but don't you have a long-term horizon? Just ride the roller coaster otherwise you'll just lock in losses and miss out on future gains.
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