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Old 03-22-2020, 03:34 PM
 
106,756 posts, read 108,973,015 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambitious994 View Post
2000 - 2012 I'm showing with dividends is 1.61% CAGR. I'm using Money Chimp, what calculator are you using? CAGR of the Stock Market: Annualized Returns of the S&P 500

And yes, you could have done a long term jumbo CD around this time (let's say in 2005) Historical CD Rates - JCDI Blog | Jumbo CD Investments, Inc. you could have found one for 5% per year.
I used portfolio visualizer
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Old 03-22-2020, 03:36 PM
 
Location: minnesota
15,864 posts, read 6,337,059 times
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So are you selling tomorrow?
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Old 03-22-2020, 03:38 PM
 
86 posts, read 148,991 times
Reputation: 199
OP
I understand your panic and how you feel. I've been having a hard time dealing with the reality of this whole situation and trying to quell my panic attacks. Since my job pretty much went away for the time being, I spent ALL of last week immobilized, in a state of high anxiety, checking the CV stats every few hours and watching the news.

Out of self-preservation, I had to stop watching the news. It was feeding my fears. I finally read an encouraging article by a journalist that put things in perspective, FOR ME, about this whole CV situation, and it made me feel so much better. I'm just going to stick with that and read it again when I get fearful. Also, for the last two days, I've been getting out and walking and enjoying the day and my health and being alive instead of stuck in my chair worrying, and I finally think I'm coming out of my dark place.

Look, you have to make the ultimate decision yourself, and be responsible for it. I personally feel from reading your posts that you want to get out but you want someone to guarantee the results. No one can tell you or guarantee what's going to happen!!

Go with your gut feeling, make your decision and move on. I've noticed that a lot of times, I feel better after I've finally made a decision and taken action on something that's been causing me anxiety. This too shall pass, and your decision will not make or break you, whether it's right or wrong.

Go outside and get some exercise, and while you're at it, notice what you have. You can walk, talk, see, hear and your brain works. You already have so much more than some people. At any minute those things can be taken away from you in an instant, and suddenly your hold-or-sell dilemma will seem so trivial.

Now, I'm going to take go out and take my own advice because it's beautiful out there today!
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Old 03-22-2020, 03:43 PM
 
106,756 posts, read 108,973,015 times
Reputation: 80218
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambitious994 View Post
2000 - 2012 I'm showing with dividends is 1.61% CAGR. I'm using Money Chimp, what calculator are you using? CAGR of the Stock Market: Annualized Returns of the S&P 500

And yes, you could have done a long term jumbo CD around this time (let's say in 2005) Historical CD Rates - JCDI Blog | Jumbo CD Investments, Inc. you could have found one for 5% per year.
The difference I believe is while money chimp reflects dividends being paid it does not reinvest them which reduces the balance being compounded on with every payment ....portfolio visualizer adds the dividends back in reinvested.

The proper comparison is reinvesting dividends not just counting dividends. You can use vanguard vfiax s& p fund in portfolio visualizer..

Using the Dow Jones calculator shows the Dow with dividends reinvested from 2000 to 2012 was up 3.65

https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/

Last edited by mathjak107; 03-22-2020 at 03:59 PM..
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Old 03-22-2020, 04:02 PM
aax
 
710 posts, read 499,347 times
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Just pull it all out and then rebuy when it hits 15000. We know that's the bottom so its a no brainer. Easy peasy.
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Old 03-22-2020, 04:04 PM
 
18,122 posts, read 15,704,019 times
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OP,

You are not emotionally-equipped to be in stocks at this point in your life, maybe not ever. The stock market is not for everyone, that's for sure. Put your money into a CD and call it a day.
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Old 03-22-2020, 04:07 PM
aax
 
710 posts, read 499,347 times
Reputation: 560
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank Purlin View Post
Market timing isn't that difficult.

I went 100% stocks in 2009. Of course I didn't catch the exact bottom, but I bought low.

I went 0% stocks in 2018. I didn't catch the exact top, but I sold high.

NO chance I would buy at today's prices. We are going far lower. I'll ignore the coming sucker's rallies.
Meh.
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Old 03-22-2020, 04:10 PM
 
Location: minnesota
15,864 posts, read 6,337,059 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timingiseverything View Post
I don’t get why it’s heresy to speculate a down market going backwards.
Is that what we are talking about? I thought we were talking about someone who has already lost money getting out then being able to get back in. I'm reasonably sure this isn't the bottom but then again what do I know?
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Old 03-22-2020, 04:12 PM
 
106,756 posts, read 108,973,015 times
Reputation: 80218
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timingiseverything View Post
Even 3.65% isn’t that great compared to a CD or something. Might as well just put the money toward a mortgage or car. Not sure how it compares to gold.
That includes the lost decade for stocks..why are we cherry picking only 2000 to 2012 for what purpose..bonds beat stocks ...what is there to compare ....move a year or two in each direction and you get totally different results ,so really ,who cares
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Old 03-22-2020, 04:13 PM
 
18,122 posts, read 15,704,019 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timingiseverything View Post
I don’t get why it’s heresy to speculate a down market will go further backwards. People speculate about it going up all the time.
Are you missing the fact the OP is flip-flopping, whipsawing, and acting like a drowning man looking for a life preserver? Speculating is all well and good as a game, but OP's behavior suggests he is not handling uncertainty in the stock market.
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