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Okay well, that's fine, you and him are free to post whatever you want. Again, if you are trying to help people (especially in a time when people have lost significant portions of their portfolios and are waiting for it to come back) I just don't understand why you need to post this right now.
The reason why it was posted so many time in reference to you is that you continued to state we were wrong, you continued to argue an absurd concept. That’s why it went on so long.
well no one can predict the future , but we can look at the past .
University of Michigan Professor H. Nejat Seyhun analyzed 7,802 trading days for the 31 years from 1963 to 1993 and concluded that just 90 days generated 95% of all the years’ market gains — an average of just three days per year.
it is easy to catch the biggest days . just stay invested . the biggest are very early on
Your REAL problem here is that you have convinced yourself you can figure things other investors can't. There are lots of people who do that so the market will probably fall some more just on pure capitulation. The Great Shutdown is already priced in. Anything you personally can conceive of other people have too. I'm waiting for this to be liked to the crash of the Depression and the 75% off the highs come out. Who knows, if we get enough cash hoarders....then again you wait for that and you lock out your gains.
Still confused. Every Boglehead keeps telling me this. Maybe you can answer some questions for me?
- When you say The Great Shutdown is already priced in, every Boglehead is saying this as well, but how do you know this? Aren't you just speculating on this, just as I'm speculating that a lot of the effects of The Great Shutdown are not factored in and DOW 10000-15000 or something like that could happen?
- I agree with Bogleheads every other time in terms of recessions, bad cycles, bad news cycles, etc. But has anybody alive right now in the investing community lived through a time like this? This isn't 2008, everything wasn't shut down in 2008, in 2008 we had a financial market meltdown and The Government bailed it out to keep things going in that regard. Right now, we have stacks and stacks and stacks of problems on top of each other and they have already did a stimulus, Fed rate to zero, and a bail out...and it's still not working. So my question to you is this, are you seeing this 2020 situation as different or are you seeing it as a regular recession/market cycle and thus, I just need to keep holding forever and don't worry?
I guess one could also ask what facts one has to support a conclusion that someone will miss out on gains if leaving the market at this time.
History and psychology have paved a pretty decent path of information. The fact as we sit the market has always come back. If you get out now, do you get back in when the market declines 10% more? 30%? 60%? The more it declines the harder it becomes and the rebound is often mistimed. As I stated a few post up you have to be right twice here
The reason why it was posted so many time in reference to you is that you continued to state we were wrong, you continued to argue an absurd concept. That’s why it went on so long.
But I didn't say you guys were wrong per say Low E, I said that you guys were not factoring in that until a Sell button is hit, the losses aren't realized. Yes, the value decreases of the asset is still there, but I still have to hit Sell to realize them. It's just two different financial concepts/terminologies, but again, I never said you guys were wrong per say.
But again, I still don't get the purpose of discussing this right now when you know people are feeling PAIN right now. Beating into their heads that they have REAL LOSSES can further push people to panic man.
But I didn't say you guys were wrong per say Low E, I said that you guys were not factoring in that until a Sell button is hit, the losses aren't realized. Yes, the value decreases of the asset is still there, but I still have to hit Sell to realize them. It's just two different financial concepts/terminologies, but again, I never said you guys were wrong per say.
But again, I still don't get the purpose of discussing this right now when you know people are feeling PAIN right now. Beating into their heads that they have REAL LOSSES can further push people to panic man.
My memory is just fine. It went on forever because you were saying I was wrong and that I didn’t get it. You are panicking because you failed to have a plan and stick to it. Blame the person responsible not me
About cash hoarders, I thought I read before the Great Shutdown that there were a lot of people in cash, therefore the market would melt up. Where are these cash people?
About cash hoarders, I thought I read before the Great Shutdown that there were a lot of people in cash, therefore the market would melt up. Where are these cash people?
PE is sitting on trillions in cash
Buffet could go shopping
Those are different than individuals imo
Individuals were sitting in cash for a reason and face the same psychological shift dilemma. They wouldn’t need to make a huge shift in the midst of a panic to push cash back into the market, when does that occur? Maybe never
About cash hoarders ...Where are these cash people?
Sitting on their CD's, earning an insured 3% and biding their time.
Most of the reasons underlying their choice to be out of equities ... hasn't changed any.
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