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Prognostication is fun, no? Our friends at Vanguard try their hand at making prognosis, or at least at assuaging the delicate constitutions of skittish investors, with a quarterly publication, such as this one, for the ensuing decade (yes, decade): https://advisors.vanguard.com/insigh...R:307676059743 .
Highlights:
* Expect US value to strongly outperform US growth. Indeed, for growth the prognosis is another lost-decade.
* Largely the same performance across US small-mid-large cap. So, what matters is value vs. growth, and not size of the company.
* Expect substantial out-performance by ex-US global equities, vs. US equities.
* All bonds will struggle even to just beat inflation.
* US REITS will have comparable cumulative performance to that of US equities.
I agree with the value tilt. Nearly everything I've purchased since the November election can be considered part of the value camp. I don't expect US growth to have such a horrible "lost decade" as 2000-2009, but I do expect value will be better over the next 5-10 years.
Agree with the bond assessment.
No strong opinion on REITs. I no longer own any REITs, mainly because I dislike how they are incorporated. IMO it's better to give companies the freedom to retain or distribute free cash flow as they choose.
No real opinion on global equities. I suppose someday they will have their time in the sun, but personally I don't see any need for foreign equity exposure.
* Expect substantial out-performance by ex-US global equities, vs. US equities.
well, ex-US is sucking even now, when is this so called outperformance that you speak of going to materialize? They have been saying that for years now, ex-US continues to have terrible underperformance.
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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Advice / Observations seem about a qrt too late (behind as usual).
Yes... we can all see (hear) this. I wonder if Vanguard Perspectives and Fidelity Insight subscribe to Yahoo Finance!
Maybe there is only ONE Finance writer for these big name companies who are so good at forward (?) looking research and trends.
Not sure how it would sell it's expertise if they just told the truth... "We really don't know what is gonna happen". Or they could just publish their results of PAS for various wealth thresholds and strategies.
Prognostication is fun, no? Our friends at Vanguard try their hand at making prognosis, or at least at assuaging the delicate constitutions of skittish investors, with a quarterly publication, such as this one, for the ensuing decade (yes, decade): https://advisors.vanguard.com/insigh...R:307676059743 .
Highlights:
* Expect US value to strongly outperform US growth. Indeed, for growth the prognosis is another lost-decade.
* Largely the same performance across US small-mid-large cap. So, what matters is value vs. growth, and not size of the company.
* Expect substantial out-performance by ex-US global equities, vs. US equities.
* All bonds will struggle even to just beat inflation.
* US REITS will have comparable cumulative performance to that of US equities.
Opinions???
Who knows?
It makes sense that value would outperform growth for quite a while now, but it hasn't happened for any sustained period of time yet.
Same for equities outside the U.S. But it hasn't happened for over a decade.
Prognostication is fun, no? Our friends at Vanguard try their hand at making prognosis, or at least at assuaging the delicate constitutions of skittish investors, with a quarterly publication, such as this one, [B]for the ensuing decade (yes, decade)[/b]: https://advisors.vanguard.com/insigh...R:307676059743 .
Highlights:
* Expect US value to strongly outperform US growth. Indeed, for growth the prognosis is another lost-decade.
* Largely the same performance across US small-mid-large cap. So, what matters is value vs. growth, and not size of the company.
* Expect substantial out-performance by ex-US global equities, vs. US equities.
* All bonds will struggle even to just beat inflation.
* US REITS will have comparable cumulative performance to that of US equities.
Opinions???
“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future'” - Yogi Berra
Or Like Vanguard founder John Bogle said: "Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack."
Then you have to hope there is a needle in it .you could pay more buying the haystack then the needle is worth too.
Everyone’s definition of buying a hay stack is different too ...are we talking buying a fund for every asset class or just an s&p fund or are we taking a total market fund ?
You can take good diversification and turn it into diworsification all to easily.
Confusing a portfolio with wish washy assets that move one way at one time and another way another time yet it is the same economic condition is an example .
So I am not big on buying the hay stack .. i am big on matching assets to economic outcomes , not each other
Were all lovers to have been serenely faithful and sated, all nations settling their disputes without war, all college-exams passed with well-directed and straightforward study, and all deaths quietly in a comfortable old age, then we'd have no material for novels, poems or paeans to human creativity. Uncertainty redeems us all; without it, ought I even ever write?
If I only spoke with knowledge that was true and certain, my mouth would find usage only for breathing and eating (this being a family-friendly forum). Alas, words! We'll know eventually, won't we?
Then you have to hope there is a needle in it .you could pay more buying the haystack then the needle is worth too.
Everyone’s definition of buying a hay stack is different too ...are we talking buying a fund for every asset class or just an s&p fund or are we taking a total market fund ?
You can take good diversification and turn it into diworsification all to easily.
Confusing a portfolio with wish washy assets that move one way at one time and another way another time yet it is the same economic condition is an example .
So I am not big on buying the hay stack .. i am big on matching assets to economic outcomes , not each other
Yes, all fair points.
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