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This doesn't explain why you comment only when the market is up, its sorta funny. And this is where you pretend to know how much I make...but you are right I don't have a "job". I own a business.
A business that apparently doesn't keep you very busy. If it did ... you would understand why people can't constantly post on these boards like you do.
I post when I have a chance to whether the market is up or down. The market was down 25 points yesterday yet here I am so ... enough with this nonsense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
Again I ask, how does it make me look like a fool when I never made any short term predictions? You seem to have a reading comprehension problem, I have stated repeatedly that I have no predictions on the short term movements of the market rather I think the market will slowly decline and stagnate over the coming years.
Yet you never miss a chance to criticize, say I'm wrong, claim I don't know what I'm talking about, etc. yet ...
With my very first post which started this thread ... I stated the Dow would bounce between 8-9K ...
Which is exactly what has been happening. The reading comprehension problem is yours, not mine. Read the first post on this thread.
You're going to have to wait years to call mine "foolish"...
Isn't that convenient. You're too chicken to make any real predictions but you'll be the first to jump on anybody else who does ... even when they're right.
With my very first post which started this thread ... I stated the Dow would bounce between 8-9K ...
I never suggested this wouldn't occur short term, its only been a few weeks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheri257
Isn't that convenient. You're too chicken to make any real predictions but you'll be the first to jump on anybody else who does ... even when they're right.
Yes, I'm "too chicken". Its as if you get your lines directly from team Bush. I don't make short term predictions because they are worthless. I don't have the sort of information available to even come close to making such predictions even remotely accurate.
What I have critiqued you about is essentially risk management, not your particular predictions about the short term movements in the market. What you are doing is gambling plain and simple...
Sheri's prediction of moving between 8000 and 9000 appears to have been relatively accurate. Other predictions of falling to 5000 appear to have been flawed. The market is definitely stabilizing. Look at the daily range, look at the VIX, look at the option volume. This is a much more orderly market than we had in mid October and mid November.
Two things. 1. I happen to think Sheri's prediction of 10,000 by mid May is probably dead right. However, we disagree on what that means for right now. I think buying calls on the side is a good idea, but I'm not sure it's the time to get long broad market ETFs. In a way, I day trade BECAUSE I'm risk averse. I get nauseous if I hold things overnight or for more than a few days lately. Bouncing between 8000 and 9000 to me means buying dips and selling spikes, while Sheri's strategy is buying dips and holding. Fair enough, I just can't handle being long for the dips, AND I think there's money to be made in the meantime -- the money can be making money on ups and on downs rather than just waiting for the rise.
In addition, I'm much more bullish on commodities than I am the broad market. I'm looking at UDN, GLD, USO, and DBC, all 1X commodity and currency plays, while I'm day trading leveraged 2X ETFs, pumping 27% of my gross income into a government income fund (FGOVX), and putting brokerage profits and after-tax savings into a super steady muni fund called ATOIX. Overall I feel like I'm taking a pretty conservative if unconventional approach.
2. The time to revisit this thread is not in December, it's in May. Just hold off, Sheri didn't say much about what would happen in December other than that we'd stay in the 8000 to 9000 range.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheri257
The market was down 25 points yesterday...
Most US equity indices were UP yesterday -- S&P 100, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Wilshire 5000, Russell 3000...
My gamble is doing fine, thank you very much. It would really help if you guys could actually the read the posts sometime.
No, so far it isn't doing anything at all. Also, you didn't start to talk about "buying the dips"....until the market crashed after your delightful bottom call.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
Sheri's prediction of moving between 8000 and 9000 appears to have been relatively accurate. Other predictions of falling to 5000 appear to have been flawed. The market is definitely stabilizing.
Firstly her predictions were wrong. The market dropped to 7500 a few days after she called bottom. As far as I know 7500 is not between 8000 and 9000. Secondly, claiming that predictions of the DOW falling 5000 are flawed because they haven't happen yet is just silly. Nobody gave a time frame and I have rather explicit stated my predictions are long term not short term. Yet, you suggest we should "lay off sheri" and wait until may. Sorta funny really....
The market is definitely stabilizing? Why because it hasn't see big drops in the last few weeks? Are you serious? The market had the same behavior during the summer....and what happen later?
Anyhow, the markets will bottom when the suckers have been bleed. There is still a lot more blood to be extracted....including yours. I'll have the hummer and sickle waiting for you = )
Firstly her predictions were wrong. The market dropped to 7500 a few days after she called bottom.
Fair enough. Buying AT the bottom would be better than buying NEAR the bottom. Nonetheless, buying at 8500 when it hits 10,000 six or eight months later is still getting in near the bottom. That is the main takeaway from Sheri's thinking in my opinion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
Secondly, claiming that predictions of the DOW falling 5000 are flawed because they haven't happen yet is just silly. Nobody gave a time frame and I have rather explicit stated my predictions are long term not short term.
THEN PUT YOUR MONEY ON IT. I can list for you a dozen different ways to profit nicely from a market move to DJIA 5000.
My strategy is to make money no matter which direction it runs in and to not be long equities over a long term. What's your strategy? Do you ever contribute any investment ideas or anything other than vague bearish doom and gloom?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
The market is definitely stabilizing? Why because it hasn't see big drops in the last few weeks? Are you serious? The market had the same behavior during the summer....and what happen later?
Yes, it is stabilizing (has stabilized) by measures used to measure stability and volatility. Yes, I'm serious. It is stabilizing. Did I say volatility won't increase again at some point in the future? NO! Right now, the VIX is way down, as is the average intraday range. That equals a more stable, less volatile, more orderly market. These facts are not in question. The market is dealing more rationally with news.
Sometimes communicating with you is akin to talking to a schoolboy or my elderly grandmother...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
Anyhow, the markets will bottom when the suckers have been bled.
Nice and vague. What on earth does this actually mean? You say this, but you won't make money on the way down and you probably won't make money on the way back up either. Congratulations.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid
There is still a lot more blood to be extracted....including yours.
Haha, I'm doing quite well, thank you very much. I am not long equities as stated several times. As of this Saturday, I'm hardly holding anything except for some long term GLD calls, ATOIX in my non-retirement savings, and FGOVX in my 401K. What are you doing? I'm considering going long commodities. Tell me why you think my "blood" will be "extracted."
Firstly her predictions were wrong. The market dropped to 7500 a few days after she called bottom. As far as I know 7500 is not between 8000 and 9000. Secondly, claiming that predictions of the DOW falling 5000 are flawed because they haven't happen yet is just silly.
Ok so ... in the last five weeks the Dow dropped below 8,000 for all of three days. November 19-21, to be precise.
Other than those three days ... it's been bouncing between 8-9K, as I predicted, for the last five weeks since I started this thread on November 17.
Again, it looks like you're having a problem with reading comprehension. Winkelman's prediction was as follows ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winkelman
New closing lows today on all indexes. That is a major bearish signal. Looking at the charts if we break 7800, we are going to 5000.
As you have just pointed out, the Dow broke 7800 briefly getting down to 7500 in November... yet it didn't get down to 5,000 as Winkelman predicted.
With the exception of three days out of the last five weeks ... I've been right on the money.
Winkelman hasn't been right once.
Naturally ... you're going to criticize me and not him ... for no other reason than to be a jerk, I guess.
But you certainly don't have much credibility with these arguments.
Yes, it is stabilizing (has stabilized) by measures used to measure stability and volatility. Yes, I'm serious. It is stabilizing. Did I say volatility won't increase again at some point in the future? NO! Right now, the VIX is way down, as is the average intraday range. That equals a more stable, less volatile, more orderly market. These facts are not in question. The market is dealing more rationally with news.
This is my point exactly so ... thank you.
As for Humanoid, don't worry too much about him. If the Dow got up to 20K by spring ... he'd still criticize and pontificate about how wrong we were since we only predicted that it would get up to 10K.
He's completely missing the point ... which is to make money.
THEN PUT YOUR MONEY ON IT. I can list for you a dozen different ways to profit nicely from a market move to DJIA 5000.
I'm perfectly aware how I can gamble on the equity markets. But why would I bother when I can put the money to better use? Furthermore, I'm undecided to what the major indexes will decline. I have not made a prediction on these matters, I've only suggested that its completely within the realm of possible events that the DOW collapses to 4000~5000.
I'm going to put my money into things that I can predict with much better probability than the equity markets, namely business.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
What's your strategy? Do you ever contribute any investment ideas or anything other than vague bearish doom and gloom?
Whats my strategy? Put my money to productive use and not gamble with it. Also, my suggestion at this point should be obvious, namely stay out of the equity markets and stay largely in cash.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
These facts are not in question. The market is dealing more rationally with news.
The markets aren't driven by "news", the sooner you realize that the better. There are numerous studies on this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
Nice and vague. What on earth does this actually mean? You say this, but you won't make money on the way down and you probably won't make money on the way back up either. Congratulations.
There really is nothing particularly vague about it. There are numerous rather large bubbles that are collapsing, when bubbles collapse they bleed all the pseudo-wealth that was created during their formation. There are no free lunches and you can't get something from nothing.
I will think about investing in equities if they go back to their traditional role in the market economy rather than the current Ponzi Scheme.
Anyhow, I have no interest in making money on the way down or on the way up (although ahem.....I don't think there is going to be a way up...).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
What are you doing? I'm considering going long commodities.
I'm investing in a business, most of my extra cash in my name is in CD's at 4~5%. I have some money market, bonds and stocks (very little) in a retirement account, but I don't contribute much to retirement accounts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
Tell me why you think my "blood" will be "extracted."
Because you are trying to make money without adding anything productive to the economy. Ultimately, that is doomed to fail.
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