[las vegas drunk]

The fake recovery continues....

Home prices go up in Las Vegas for the first time in years - KTNV ABC,Channel 13,Las Vegas,Nevada,News,Weather,Sports,Entertainment,KTN V.com,Action News .:. (http://www.ktnv.com/Global/story.asp?S=12457761 - broken link)

[sheriwx]

I can't help but feel that April's statistics can't really be trusted because it was the month of the tax credit expiration, when many rushed to buy in order to get that credit, perhaps inflating prices a little over what they should have been.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by sheriwx

I can't help but feel that April's statistics can't really be trusted because it was the month of the tax credit expiration, when many rushed to buy in order to get that credit, perhaps inflating prices a little over what they should have been.

Well maybe. But it was the expiration of the opportunity to go to contract. The actual close of the rebate is June 30.

You will have to wait until July to see what it looks like without the rebate effect.

I also see some weird goings on but I am not sure yet. I will write about them shortly once I am sure the data is correct.

[macno0b]

I'm moving to vegas and will buy a house in the next few months. I will be buying a single family house with 4bds up and 2baths up. I look around zillow.com and see that they are around $150-$200k in Henderson and Summerlin

Do you guys think housing market won't go down anymore in Vegas?

What would be the best area that is close to UNLV and the strip?

This will be my first home buying experience. Are there any readings/warnings/tips you guys recommend for me?

Is there anything else I should be aware of in buying a house in Vegas?

Thanks,

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by macno0b

This will be my first home buying experience. Are there any readings/warnings/tips you guys recommend for me?

You might want to start in the 242 page thread titled Current Update on the Real Estate Market Part II that you just posted in.

[Boompa]

Originally Posted by macno0b

I'm moving to vegas and will buy a house in the next few months. I will be buying a single family house with 4bds up and 2baths up. I look around zillow.com and see that they are around $150-$200k in Henderson and Summerlin

Do you guys think housing market won't go down anymore in Vegas?

What would be the best area that is close to UNLV and the strip?

This will be my first home buying experience. Are there any readings/warnings/tips you guys recommend for me?

Is there anything else I should be aware of in buying a house in Vegas?

Thanks,

Housing should never fall much below construction cost anywhere.
Zillow has become a real disappointment, they are off on my neighborhood by $50k from what they are selling for.

[strato58]

Originally Posted by Boompa

Housing should never fall much below construction cost anywhere.
Zillow has become a real disappointment, they are off on my neighborhood by $50k from what they are selling for.

I guess what is really falling are the land values....

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by Boompa

Zillow has become a real disappointment, they are off on my neighborhood by $50k from what they are selling for.

Has become? Haven't people on City-data been saying that Zillow values should not be trusted at all for at least the past 3 years?

[mresort]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Well maybe. But it was the expiration of the opportunity to go to contract. The actual close of the rebate is June 30.

You will have to wait until July to see what it looks like without the rebate effect.

I also see some weird goings on but I am not sure yet. I will write about them shortly once I am sure the data is correct.

Do you notice a significant drop of your potential buyers who want to schedule showing of houses after the tax credit expired on 4/30?

If it is the case, I guess the recent upbeat may level off a little bit after June.

However, I still don't think the tax credit is a deal breaker for those buyers. About half of new homeowners are cash buyers, and most of them are investors who are not qualified for the rebate anyway.

[Slim10]

Originally Posted by Boompa

Housing should never fall much below construction cost anywhere.
Zillow has become a real disappointment, they are off on my neighborhood by $50k from what they are selling for.

Good point. There are a lot of houses that have been selling at below 50% of construction cost ($40-50 psf). New home sales numbers across the country reflect this. Until new home sales recover, there won't be a true recovery. And new home sales won't recover until existing home prices go past construction cost. No one will build to make a loss. No new homes = no new supply. No supply = price increase.

$80-125 per sq ft is the average construction cost. Its a matter of time before prices go up to that level. It probably won't go up to 2007 levels ($150-200 psf) but it will creep up to the lower end of the avg construction cost which more accurately reflect home prices.

Remaining at 20-25% of 2007 levels is unsustainable unless 1/2 the population moves out (creating more supply).

I'm extrapolating 1-2 years to clear remaining inventories and maybe 2-5 years to recover to pre-2003 levels. Zillow is a good indicator of how under-valued existing home prices are.