[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

I called a botton very gingerly but very clearly this spring. YOu can go back and see how it was done. Just produce the similar assertions from the other periods.

This doesn't look particularly ginger to me. http://www.city-data.com/forum/11587830-post1879.html You'll notice it also contains another failed 10% YoY price increase prognostication. <on edit> It looks like you're talking about sales volume vs. price. We're back down to one 10% YoY price increase prognostication.

Taking singular comments out of context is your stock in trade. That is because you have nothing else.

Translation - you can't come up with any context in which there wasn't a Vegas housing bubble for the very simple reason that you were epically wrong.

A different bubble with different people.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

This doesn't look particularly ginger to me. http://www.city-data.com/forum/11587830-post1879.html You'll notice it also contains another failed 10% YoY price increase prognostication. <on edit> It looks like you're talking about sales volume vs. price. We're back down to one 10% YoY price increase prognostication.Translation - you can't come up with any context in which there wasn't a Vegas housing bubble for the very simple reason that you were epically wrong.

A different bubble with different people.

As I thoiught. Gave it up. Can't substantiate anything you say.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

As I thoiught. Gave it up. Can't substantiate anything you say.

All anyone has to do is click on the link. I understand the denial phase but your intarweb record doesn't lie.

Originally Posted by olecapt on 4/9/2008

Price is actually up a little bit at the moment over March. Nothing significant though.

Looks like we are at the bottom.

Maybe that too was a different bottom with different people.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

All anyone has to do is click on the link. I understand the denial phase but your intarweb record doesn't lie. Maybe that too was a different bottom with different people.

Well let us contrast your quote with Olecapt actually suggesting a botton has arrived...

Your quote..

Originally Posted by olecapt on 4/9/2008
Price is actually up a little bit at the moment over March. Nothing significant though.

Looks like we are at the bottom.

And then Olecapt suggesting a bottom has arrived...

OleCapt - The Bottom has Arrived...

The olecapt walks out on the plank..whips out his saw and begins cutting between he and the boat...

It appears the end is upon us. We are in the valley. We prophesy that the resale prices of Single family residences in Las Vegas will go up in May over April.

For those more conservative than Olecapt...it could be a seasonal variation.

But Olecapt thinks not. There is more than one variable in play and a couple say we are turning the corner.

Now the mythical 22,000 bank owned could appear in the next week. Or interest rates could pop up a point...or City Center could be destroyed in an earthquake (or imploded by a consortium of bankers)...but short of a catastrophe it appears the numbers suggest an end of the downward trend.

Now remember no one...including olecapt...should announce such a thing without months of data...but by then all would have noticed.

So olecapt stands on the end of the plank and saws away...

Won't it be fun to arguue about how long until we get back to 2004?

Why Tony I bet even you can detect a difference...then again...maybe not.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Why Tony I bet even you can detect a difference...then again...maybe not.

Well, in the muffed bottom call you made some 18 months ago, you say-

Looks like we are at a bottom.

In your more recent guess you say

It appears the end is upon us.

and

...but short of a catastrophe it appears the numbers suggest an end of the downward trend.

So, essentially you replaced "looks" with "appears." Bold, very bold.

How'd that May over April SFR price increase prophesy work out?

[Fastrudy]

Can we start a new thread called "Olecapt vs. Tony Soprano"? It would do a world of good for the viability of this forum. They can duke it out on their own thread! This would leave the Real Estate thread for those interested in Real Estate, and Tony & OleCapt questioning each others predictions in a serparate thread, which will probably only be read by two people. It sure would free up the Real Estate thread, however.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Fastrudy

Can we start a new thread called "Olecapt vs. Tony Soprano"? It would do a world of good for the viability of this forum. They can duke it out on their own thread! This would leave the Real Estate thread for those interested in Real Estate, and Tony & OleCapt questioning each others predictions in a serparate thread, which will probably only be read by two people. It sure would free up the Real Estate thread, however.

OK - Hate to leave the field to such. But the old physics teacher speaks true.

[airics]

Originally Posted by fastrudy

can we start a new thread called "olecapt vs. Tony soprano"? It would do a world of good for the viability of this forum. They can duke it out on their own thread! This would leave the real estate thread for those interested in real estate, and tony & olecapt questioning each others predictions in a serparate thread, which will probably only be read by two people. It sure would free up the real estate thread, however.

amen.....

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by olecapt

YOu have not figured it out yet? The NOD numbers are meaningless and have been right along. The system is at a stable state handling around 3000 foreclosures a month. That is what it can handle and that is what is occuring. The foreclosure are down month over month and year over year. The banked owned inventory is down year over year.

It may continue for months or years. But it is stable for the forseeable future where it is.

Ok, from your own mouth here:

Fact 1: Inventory of foreclosures is stable and will be for months or years.

Fact 2: Not sure the exact number, but its high and you've quoted it I believe in the 40-60% range. Anyway, what I'm looking for is the percentage of these foreclosures that are sold to investors.

Fact 3: You predicted bottom.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Why waste the bytes. Nonsense is nonsense. YOu have no idea how it actually works. It is far easier in this market and many others to sell four 100K homes than one 400k home. It is always easier to list and sell three 200K homes than one 500K home. You simply don't understand the business.

Try something you know something about...

Let's see if I understand this complex market called real estate sales.

A hypothetical. I fly into Vegas and specifically want to buy a SF home. Say I'm looking at a $400K price range. We talk for an hour and I let you know my specifics. I ask to set me up with 10 showings from the MLS portal that you built.

Same drill as before but now I want a $100K home. How is the supply on that $100K price range with my specifics by the way?? We visit 10 homes as well.

So you are saying you want to pick up 4 people at the airport and spend 4 days driving people around, write up 4 offers, coordinate 4 closings, work through 4 different personalities of listing agents and buyers. Basically juggling 4 times the items versus working with that one person who is buying a $400K home??????

Is that what you are saying???

Hint: A $400K homes are "harder" to sell because currently there are less buyers. They are just as easy to list, process, show, etc. Putting it another way, with all of this volume, are agents on average making more of less than in 2005???


Please educate me how I'm wrong. If you could; please also explain why NAR jumps on all good information in the housing sector as well and spins it to their liking.

Real Estate is full of people who change careers. I've always found from personal experience that sales are not for everyone. It's about being street smart versus say engineering smart. They tap a different part of the brain. Ole.