[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Prepare yourself for something along the lines of "you took my comments out of context...that was a different bottom...with different people".

No it is a good thread. Read it from the beginning. If you really want to play read the predecessor. After that you can have a considered opinion.

Otherwise you are simply taking out of context.

Tony and MNBNR are not into considered opinions.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

No it is a good thread. Read it from the beginning. If you really want to play read the predecessor. After that you can have a considered opinion.

Otherwise you are simply taking out of context.

Tony and MNBNR are not into considered opinions.

You still haven't been able to explain under what context did a Vegas housing bubble not exist in 2006?

Oh, wait a second - "It was a different bubble, with different people".

And kudos on calling the bottom in April 2008.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

You still haven't been able to explain under what context did a Vegas housing bubble not exist in 2006?

Oh, wait a second - "It was a different bubble, with different people".

And kudos on calling the bottom in April 2008.

Read the thread. It is all there.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

You still haven't been able to explain under what context did a Vegas housing bubble not exist in 2006?

Oh, wait a second - "It was a different bubble, with different people".

And kudos on calling the bottom in April 2008.

Hey I am curious though.

Where where you posting in 2004 to 2008. Be fun to see how you were doing in that time frame.

Given your market mastery and skill I am sure you will share those links with us all....

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Read the thread. It is all there.

Oh, I've read it. It's chock full of random generator goodness.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Oh, I've read it. It's chock full of random generator goodness.

and the link to your pronouncements during the period?

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Hey I am curious though.

Where where you posting in 2004 to 2008. Be fun to see how you were doing in that time frame.

Given your market mastery and skill I am sure you will share those links with us all....

Tony. I want to stay focused on the the current update on the real estate market.

MY accurate prediction on the Vegas market took me about 3 seconds to formulate. The foreclosures that the lenders are holding has been interrupted (a.k.a. lower supply) from entering the market. So a lot of the cheaper foreclosures has been absorbed. The perception is that the bottom has hit on the low end. Perception could mean reality if the sales volume continues and the supply gets absorbed at these levels. So with 3 more seconds of analysis, I predict the values will be up slightly in Nov as well as the sales (lot's of closings to hit because of the initial Nov 30th deadline). While I am at it, December will fall in volume and the average price will be the same as November.

People were trying to get the $8K credit and there was a sense of urgency to buy before then. Hence, the lower end homes have received multiple bids. It's real tough to get these things right.

While some may assume I was simply lucky, I do submit that I am no "ePro". In case you didn't know, RE Experts can be "specially certified for expertise in doing business over the Internet." See Abvout Us (It's the 5th bullet down).

I'm thinking that an "ePro expert" could get their 1 hour certificate yanked by the ePro Grand Poobah (Dr. Lawrence Yun) if they found out SOMEONE was banned from the reviewjournal.com site.

I didn't read the whole thread yet. But was he banned from making bad predictions year after year??? If he was, that's not fair: Weatherman get it wrong 1/2 the time and they still get paid.

But I will say this.... Jim (olecapt) does have a way of getting people to interact with him. Maybe it's taught in the ePro class.

[Kaiminani]

Instead of simply looking at the average selling price across the entire market, I think doing something like bining sales across ranges like under $100k, $100k-$300K,$300k-$600K and $600k+ would be a lot more indicative what's happening with the market. Failing that, at least knowing the standard deviation of the selling prices would be better. That's all presuming there are historical numbers to compare with too.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Kaiminani

Instead of simply looking at the average selling price across the entire market, I think doing something like bining sales across ranges like under $100k, $100k-$300K,$300k-$600K and $600k+ would be a lot more indicative what's happening with the market. Failing that, at least knowing the standard deviation of the selling prices would be better. That's all presuming there are historical numbers to compare with too.

Agreed. But even then you are not tracking the value of the home that increased and fell with time.

I prefer tracking cost per square foot. It has it's down sides as well.

[RCCCB]

I just wonder how long it remains prudent for financial institutions to hold onto all the inventory.
They have the accounting trick given them by the current administration called "Future Value", but I can't see the Enron styled accounting tricks being a permanent fix IMO.