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It is OK Gulfer...you probably shut ole Tony up for a week.
To a large degree I agree with you about the state of the US...though I know that we will differ as to why.
On the other hand I think that has little to do with Las Vegas RE which is off in its own little cocoon...for good or ill.
I would give you my guess as to volume and direction. But Tony already smells a rat and is not about to offer an opinion. And the new guy does not know enough...
It is OK Gulfer...you probably shut ole Tony up for a week.
What pray tell did Gulfer say that would shut me up? That you told him to wait to buy? I assure you for every Gulfer there are multiple instances of you telling someone they were gambling by waiting, that prices would probably go up 10% in the next year, that there was no bubble in Vegas housing, yada, yada. I've long since assigned you the randomness of a Ouija board.
Quote:
To a large degree I agree with you about the state of the US...though I know that we will differ as to why.
On the other hand I think that has little to do with Las Vegas RE which is off in its own little cocoon...for good or ill.
Reminds me of the "RE is local" chant that you somehow thought would immunize Vegas from the RE bust. How'd that work out?
Quote:
I would give you my guess as to volume and direction. But Tony already smells a rat and is not about to offer an opinion. And the new guy does not know enough...
"Guess" is the operative word. I can imagine your reluctance after getting it wrong with a single day left in the month. I'm pulling for you though!
Actually Tony I lied. I knew there was no way your ego would allow you to shut up like you should have. And you did not disappoint me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano
What pray tell did Gulfer say that would shut me up? That you told him to wait to buy? I assure you for every Gulfer there are multiple instances of you telling someone they were gambling by waiting, that prices would probably go up 10% in the next year, that there was no bubble in Vegas housing, yada, yada. I've long since assigned you the randomness of a Ouija board.
How would you know that Tony? Consulted your Ouija board? You do a lot of that don't you Tony...
Quote:
Reminds me of the "RE is local" chant that you somehow thought would immunize Vegas from the RE bust. How'd that work out?"Guess" is the operative word. I can imagine your reluctance after getting it wrong with a single day left in the month. I'm pulling for you though!
There goes your vivid imagination again. I absolutely do believe Las Vegas is unique as are most RE markets. That you don't indicates your lack of knowledge of the field.
That the uniqueness is "good" is a value judgement you have formed. I would stick with "unique". But you know all. Or at least you are convinced you do.
And your rememberance as always is incorrect...but that is how you go is it not?
My guess however would be vastly closer than you will ever get...
Than again you have no intention of actually listing an opinion.
Actually Tony I lied. I knew there was no way your ego would allow you to shut up like you should have.
Well, I'd certainly hate to disappoint you, even if you are an admitted liar.
Quote:
How would you know that Tony? Consulted your Ouija board? You do a lot of that don't you Tony...
Because anyone that's spent the time to review your past prognostications and proclamations, quickly realizes that your nothing else if not a random generator. You are, as I've noted before; often wrong, seldom in doubt.
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There goes your vivid imagination again. I absolutely do believe Las Vegas is unique as are most RE markets. That you don't indicates your lack of knowledge of the field.
That the uniqueness is "good" is a value judgement you have formed. I would stick with "unique". But you know all. Or at least you are convinced you do.
And your rememberance as always is incorrect...but that is how you go is it not?
Blah Blah Blah. And for all its uniqueness, how did it fair during the RE bust?
Quote:
My guess however would be vastly closer than you will ever get...
Than again you have no intention of actually listing an opinion.
That is because you have no real understanding.
Duck duck duck
That you've acknowledged to the readers on this board that you're simply guessing is significant progress. Now everyone can choose how much weight to assign your guesswork.
I've offered my opinion on the Vegas housing market for the next couple of years. To ask me to guess along with you on what it does every month is moronic, which means you certainly won't be deterred from doing so. I imagine if your broker suggested that you add MSFT to your portfolio because he thinks it's going up over the next couple of years, you'd call him every day to ask what he thinks the price will be that day?
Quack Quack Quack
Last edited by tony soprano; 11-03-2009 at 10:24 PM..
I mean seriously guys. SERIOUSLY. Start paying attention to what's going on. This is not a drill. It ain't pretty, and it ain't something that's just going to solve itself. There's a good reason Bernanke is slashing interest rates like nobody's business, because the man can see what's coming and he's *panicked*. So far, mortgage rates have NOT responded to his cuts the way he hoped and have actually gone up. He's rapidly running out of bullets as he cuts down to near 0% -- then POP! Once the world sees he's out of ammunition, bye bye economy...
And I better not hear someone try that old crap about real estate being local either, because that won't help us this time around. This will be GLOBAL. A set of dominoes are now in place, ready to fall, like we never dreamed existed. One pillar of the economy will yank out the next. Expect critical mass sometime this year and then it's anybody's guess how much pain we feel. I've been following the "macro" picture for two years running now and 2008 is the real deal. TRILLIONS of dollars in illusionary wealth are now vanishing. Get ready and pull yer heads out yer ass!
Yeah, call me Mr. Doom & Gloom... but common sense suggests no other likely outcome, save some economic miracle. Fat chance. Be ready for this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt on 3/3/08
Sorry Real Estate Remains Local.
Could we be heading into a global recession/depression? I would think it possible but a low probability.
I will start to really worry when the cranes on the strip shutdown. When those vast edificies underway become inactive monument to what was to be but is no more.
In the interim pass the grain of salt.
MNBNR, here's a perfect illustration of what I earlier characterized as the Olecapt shuffle. I point out how horribly wrong he was that Vegas was somehow going to be spared because "RE is local".
His first tact is to deny that he ever said it, at which point I quote his exact words. (see above)
Faced with his own words, he will say that I've quoted him out of context. At which point I include the other posts to provide the context. ( see above)
Next, he will say that no could have possibly seen it coming...well, except the guy that was telling him the problem was global and that Vegas wouldn't be spared.
Lather, rinse, and repeat for most all his failed projections. And they are many.
So, back to you Mr. Real Estate Remains Local; how'd that work out?
Let's take a look, shall we?
Median SFR 3/08 $243K
Median SFR 11/09 $138K
(-43%) Ouch!!
MNBNR, here's a perfect illustration of what I earlier characterized as the Olecapt shuffle. I point out how horribly wrong he was that Vegas was somehow going to be spared because "RE is local".
His first tact is to deny that he ever said it, at which point I quote his exact words. (see above)
Faced with his own words, he will say that I've quoted him out of context. At which point I include the other posts to provide the context. ( see above)
Next, he will say that no could have possibly seen it coming...well, except the guy that was telling him the problem was global and that Vegas wouldn't be spared.
Lather, rinse, and repeat for most all his failed projections. And they are many.
I can add in four more.
5. He asks for an example. When you give him the answer, he comes back and claims that you are ducking. Example: Houses that cost more to rebuild. The explanations don't sink in. (It happens EVERYWHERE and I explained why.)
6. If you point out obvious trends, he pulls out a personal example as if the entire market follows a specific home or neighborhood. Example: Spendy homes are not moving well across the country and have more to fall. Nope. Not in Vegas. The bubble has deflated.
7. In order to cover up his lack of understanding of the market, he claims Vegas is in its own cocoon. But he will pull out other trends from the rest of the nation when it helps him explain the same problem. He wants it both ways. Example: FL and AZ are the only areas in his mind that over built causing price erosion below rebuild costs
8. When he is out of his league, he accuses others as "not knowing much" or "dull" or "you have no real understanding". When pinned, he asks for other people monthly predictions while not offering his own.
Tony. Thanks for digging up that post. Dude66 was able to see the direction that Vegas was headed while our board's Vegas RE expert missed it.... again!
If you stick your head in the sand and only pay attention to what is happening on the street, you will get things wrong over and over and OVER again. Smart prognosticators look at other RE market trends to predict what can happen in their backyard. When you have a cockamamie view point that the lenders caused all of this and your market is completely unique, I'd expect people to get it wrong. Stir in the fact that agents are economically motivated to get convince people to buy and you get some interesting "advice".
IMHO, it's a great time to buy on the lower price points. Not so much as an investment (the jury is out on how quickly it will come back) but for a house to live in or retire in. Even if it goes down 10%, trying to time the exact bottom always involves part skill and part luck. At the same token, there is no rush to buy as plenty of REO's are coming and the prices will fluctuate around these levels for a while. Cash buyers are in better shape to wait because interest rates will have to go up longer term and the free subsidy will be gone which is propping homes up several thousands of dollars. The sales will probably cool on the lower end but the jury is out. The next several months of sales figures will tell the direction and the market is volatile; anything can happen.
On the higher end stuff we have a completely different situation. Vegas land was going for $500K an acre at the height of the bubble. Use your imagination where that might finally settle down at. Rebuild costs at these new lower building rates are a pretty good idea of where the final equilibrium will be in 3-5 years on the physical house. But the hyper inflated dirt price IMHO has a ways to go. So add in the price per sq foot of rebuild plus anticipated dirt price and you know where there is a real deal. There is no point at looking at what it sold for originally.
MNBNR, here's a perfect illustration of what I earlier characterized as the Olecapt shuffle. I point out how horribly wrong he was that Vegas was somehow going to be spared because "RE is local".
His first tact is to deny that he ever said it, at which point I quote his exact words. (see above)
Faced with his own words, he will say that I've quoted him out of context. At which point I include the other posts to provide the context. ( see above)
Next, he will say that no could have possibly seen it coming...well, except the guy that was telling him the problem was global and that Vegas wouldn't be spared.
Lather, rinse, and repeat for most all his failed projections. And they are many.
So, back to you Mr. Real Estate Remains Local; how'd that work out?
Let's take a look, shall we?
Median SFR 3/08 $243K
Median SFR 11/09 $138K
(-43%) Ouch!!
Pass the grain of salt, indeed.
You can't read?
Originally Posted by olecapt on 3/3/08
Quote:
Sorry Real Estate Remains Local.
Could we be heading into a global recession/depression? I would think it possible but a low probability.I will start to really worry when the cranes on the strip shutdown. When those vast edificies underway become inactive monument to what was to be but is no more.
In the interim pass the grain of salt.
Nasty thing - Sometimes you catch the low probability.
You don't understand probability though do you?
Dude66 believed in the really apocalyptic view. He would suggest we have seen nothing yet.
Tony. Thanks for digging up that post. Dude66 was able to see the direction that Vegas was headed while our board's Vegas RE expert missed it.... again!
If you stick your head in the sand and only pay attention to what is happening on the street, you will get things wrong over and over and OVER again. Smart prognosticators look at other RE market trends to predict what can happen in their backyard. When you have a cockamamie view point that the lenders caused all of this and your market is completely unique, I'd expect people to get it wrong. Stir in the fact that agents are economically motivated to get convince people to buy and you get some interesting "advice".
IMHO, it's a great time to buy on the lower price points. Not so much as an investment (the jury is out on how quickly it will come back) but for a house to live in or retire in. Even if it goes down 10%, trying to time the exact bottom always involves part skill and part luck. At the same token, there is no rush to buy as plenty of REO's are coming and the prices will fluctuate around these levels for a while. Cash buyers are in better shape to wait because interest rates will have to go up longer term and the free subsidy will be gone which is propping homes up several thousands of dollars. The sales will probably cool on the lower end but the jury is out. The next several months of sales figures will tell the direction and the market is volatile; anything can happen.
On the higher end stuff we have a completely different situation. Vegas land was going for $500K an acre at the height of the bubble. Use your imagination where that might finally settle down at. Rebuild costs at these new lower building rates are a pretty good idea of where the final equilibrium will be in 3-5 years on the physical house. But the hyper inflated dirt price IMHO has a ways to go. So add in the price per sq foot of rebuild plus anticipated dirt price and you know where there is a real deal. There is no point at looking at what it sold for originally.
My 2 cents.
Are we done yet olecapt???
You still have been unable to find a single US metro area where homes are selling below replacement costs. You assert they are "everywhere" but can't find a single place. You duck.
You talk much about the RE Market but faced with the simple choice of what is happening now you duck.
YOu continue to encase your ducks in increasingly large verbage. Does not change the outcome. You are simply ducking in more words.
You still have been unable to find a single US metro area where homes are selling below replacement costs. You assert they are "everywhere" but can't find a single place. You duck.
You talk much about the RE Market but faced with the simple choice of what is happening now you duck.
YOu continue to encase your ducks in increasingly large verbage. Does not change the outcome. You are simply ducking in more words.
I guess we are not done yet.
See post #1865. Olecapt shuffle Technique #5:
5. He asks for an example. When you give him the answer, he comes back and claims that you are ducking. Example: Houses that cost more to rebuild. The explanations don't sink in. (It happens EVERYWHERE and I explained why.)
Re-read my previous posts s-l-o-w-l-y. Then tell me what is so hard to understand. I can re-write and take out the three syllable words if that will help.
My next months predictions were wrapped up in humor but they are my predictions. Sales up slightly and median values up slightly. That includes Vegas, Phoenix, Naples, as well as MN. Vegas is not on an island. The forces are at play are the same in most market places. Vegas happens to be in a worse shape than the rest.
I'll dummy down my verbage you from now on.
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