[Humboldt1]

They just released May foreclosures numbers and things appear to be getting worse.

Lehman Brothers economist Michelle Meyer said in a report Thursday that U.S. home sales are likely to hit bottom at the end of this summer, but said a recovery in sales is likely to be "feeble." Home prices, she wrote, are still expected to fall another 10 percent by the end of 2009.

Basically, from a realtor's perspective you may see bottom (sales volume-wise) late this summer. For everyone else, it is all about price which is not expected to bottom until late 2009. Buyers who can wait should unless they find the right foreclosure or short sale opportunity.

When do you folks think will be the best time to get a short sale or foreclosure? I am being told 4th Q 2008, but am not sure if that is too soon. Your input is appreciated. Thanks.

BTW, my accountant owns several investment properties (SFR) in Vegas and has got me interested in looking to buy a foreclosure or short sale for investment purposes, though I may just stick with Chicago investment real estate. Either way, your market is a great barometer for what I see happening in Chicago in the coming months.

[airics]

the prices on the foreclosures (under 250ish) actually are up 1% in vegas, and pendings are up too... i would not mess with the shortsales, too hard to work.

[CuriousMike]

More on the credit crises.

RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert - Telegraph

The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.

A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.

Thornburg Mortgage going down.

Thornburg Survival in Doubt, Gets SEC Subpoenas - Real Estate * US * News * Story - MSNBC.com

Thornburg Mortgage, the jumbo mortgage lender that lost $3.31 billion in the first quarter, said on Wednesday it has received subpoenas from U.S. securities regulators and its survival remains in doubt.The disclosures reflect further problems for the Santa Fe, New Mexico-based lender, which was on the brink of bankruptcy in March before raising $1.35 billion of capital.


Thornburg specializes in mortgages above $417,000, which often go to buyers of larger homes who have good credit.

It proved vulnerable when investors stopped buying such loans, and it failed to cover $610 million of margin calls from its lenders.

[CuriousMike]

Housing: It'll get worse


Hard hit cities are set for more steep home-price losses. - Jun. 12, 2008

Yep, I concur sirs.

The index, which tracks the sale price of specific homes as they are sold and resold over the years, is considered to be one of the most accurate home price indicators.


"The people who are putting their money where their mouths are," said Perna, "are betting on more losses."


Specifically, Case/Shiller investors are betting that Las Vegas prices will fall an additional 22% by November 2009.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by CuriousMike

Housing: It'll get worse


Hard hit cities are set for more steep home-price losses. - Jun. 12, 2008

Yep, I concur sirs.

What the F*** is a Case-Shiller Investor? Some idiot doomsday jerk?

Spare me. We may not yet have seen the bottom but we are close.

Case-Shiller is a reporting technique...it has nothing to do with investors and does not project futures.

That task is left to the Doomsday jerks.

[bumpercar]

And they are based directly on the Case-Shiller indexes.

Originally Posted by olecapt

What the F*** is a Case-Shiller Investor? Some idiot doomsday jerk?

Spare me. We may not yet have seen the bottom but we are close.

Case-Shiller is a reporting technique...it has nothing to do with investors and does not project futures.

That task is left to the Doomsday jerks.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by bumpercar

And they are based directly on the Case-Shiller indexes.

Yes...and Casinos make lines on any number of interesting things...but has that got anything to do with reality? Do you think it is really important to determine whether the total point count in the next NBA season will be odd, even or divisible by three? You likely can get a line on any of those.

Try betting 00 on a roulette table. Works the same way

[bumpercar]

Like any derivative they can be used as naked bets to speculate but investors also use them to hedge their exposure to RE and RE-derivative investments.

Originally Posted by olecapt

Yes...and Casinos make lines on any number of interesting things...but has that got anything to do with reality? Do you think it is really important to determine whether the total point count in the next NBA season will be odd, even or divisible by three? You likely can get a line on any of those.

Try betting 00 on a roulette table. Works the same way

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by bumpercar

Like any derivative they can be used as naked bets to speculate but investors also use them to hedge their exposure to RE and RE-derivative investments.

Ohh..Kindly explain to us poor folk exactly what set of circumstances would require a hedge against local Real Estate prices rising in Las Vegas?

[bumpercar]

with plans to build a subdivision. His future profit is based on known factors like carrying costs, construct costs, and marketing costs but also big unknown factors like prevailing house prices at the time of build-out. Buying a hedge against future residential prices allows allows him to set a price collar and lock in a price/profit. If housing prices are down at build-out he can sell the houses for less than projected and recoup the difference in the gain from his futures contract. It's no different than an OJ producer buying futures to lock in a price for his crop.

Originally Posted by olecapt

Ohh..Kindly explain to us poor folk exactly what set of circumstances would require a hedge against local Real Estate prices rising in Las Vegas?