[CuriousMike]

Originally Posted by Terri B

Bloomberg:
U.S. Economy: Pending Sales of Existing Homes Unexpectedly Rise
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide


"The pending-sales index is based on a sample of 20 percent of transactions in the multiple listing service used by real estate agents, while the existing-home sales report covers about 40 percent. The Realtors' data on pending sales go back to January 2001, and the group started publishing the index in March 2005."

Seems this article does reflect the rise in activity of Las Vegas, surprising to see that the other areas in the country are doing better....

Also from the same article.

Other measures are also showing sales may continue to decline. The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of applications for loans to purchase homes has fallen 13 percent since the beginning of May, ending the month at the lowest level in five years.

Ok, so sales are up...but loan applications are down. Oil and food prices rising along with unemployment.

Credit problems continue to deepen.

The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed - Telegraph

This uptick isn't sustainable. IMO, it's going to get worse.

[airics]

the loans apps are down because the banks have tightened up

[olecapt]

I too doubt the relationship between loan application and successful sales. May simple say there are far less unqualified people applying...which is good.

[Humboldt1]

I believe we are starting to see the beginnings of a double bottom. The first crisis was the credit crisis, which seems to be passing. I think there will be a brief uptick followed by more declines caused by macro declines in the overall US economy relating to increased commodity prices and a declining dollar and increased unemployment (only going to 6.5 percent from 5.5 currently). I think this second bottom should level out in the next 12-18 months.

Many posters on this thread seem to be cheering for Vegas market to come back and seem to be looking for anything to call for a market recovery. Be careful when you have the NAR declaring the market is picking up. Most analysts see more declines ahead as do I.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Humboldt1

I believe we are starting to see the beginnings of a double bottom. The first crisis was the credit crisis, which seems to be passing. I think there will be a brief uptick followed by more declines caused by macro declines in the overall US economy relating to increased commodity prices and a declining dollar and increased unemployment (only going to 6.5 percent from 5.5 currently). I think this second bottom should level out in the next 12-18 months.

Many posters on this thread seem to be cheering for Vegas market to come back and seem to be looking for anything to call for a market recovery. Be careful when you have the NAR declaring the market is picking up. Most analysts see more declines ahead as do I.

Ohh please...I could not care less what NAR wants or says. I work Vegas. Simple as that. Why would you raise NAR as an issue? Got no facts?

Let us be clear. In Realtor terms the market is back. In investors terms it may still be dropping. I do not get paid by how much the investor makes...I get paid for how many homes I sell.

Las Vegas unemployment is not going to get a lot worse...does not happen with a few ten thousands of new jobs coming on line.

The interesting thing is the percentage of cheap repos in the sold market continues to increase. Note that it is not REPOs...it is cheap REPOs.

Expensive REPOs are not doing much better than expensive nonREPOs.

Been woriking both the last couple of weeks. The low end is a wild ride. But the high end ain't doing much. Hmmm What is going on...

[Coop01]

Originally Posted by Humboldt1

I believe we are starting to see the beginnings of a double bottom. The first crisis was the credit crisis, which seems to be passing. I think there will be a brief uptick followed by more declines caused by macro declines in the overall US economy relating to increased commodity prices and a declining dollar and increased unemployment (only going to 6.5 percent from 5.5 currently). I think this second bottom should level out in the next 12-18 months.

Many posters on this thread seem to be cheering for Vegas market to come back and seem to be looking for anything to call for a market recovery. Be careful when you have the NAR declaring the market is picking up. Most analysts see more declines ahead as do I.

I would agree with you. Alt-A mortgages are starting to default and the peak is six months out. These mortgages are going to be much larger values. The real wild card if there is one is the election. Lots of things happen before an election. There might even be some significant movement downward in oil prices before then. I'd go so far as to predict "Happy days are here again" before the election. The value of my place has dropped 49% in three years based on a sale of the identical floor plan in my area last month.

The REOs will clear out and that will keep the Realtors busy at least on the lower end of the market. There are enough suckers out there to nibble in this market for possible rental units. It will be painful but it will eventually recover but it will never be like it was in the past 7 years.

Las Vegas has other problems, notably water to sustain much more growth. Lake Mead is 103 feet below normal. The lowest in 43 years and the IPCC says 18 out of 19 reports say this drought is just the beginning. U.S. Southwest Drought Could Be Start of New Dust Bowl
Illustration: Lake Mead's water level 103 feet below normal - Las Vegas Sun The level will probably slowly rise again but at some point there will be a ground swell of anti-growth residents that are fed up with crime and the cost of water.

Some one will find the Nevada equivalent of the Delta Smelt in Lake Mead and the 9th circuit Federal Court will limit the amount of water that can be drawn off which will compound an already severe problem. Look for lawsuits when LV trys to acquire water from other counties. The fight has always been about water in the west.

[MR77]

My agent took me out last weekend to look at houses. My price range is between 160 and 180K. Everything we looked at was a foreclosure and each house was the same story, the tenants got kicked out and they trashed it before they left. Only one or two were actually move in ready. I dont get what kind of satisfaction one gets by leaving the water running so the entire upstairs is destoryed... too bad the banks cannot go after people for doing that. Guess there is nothing left for the bank to take. It should be a criminal offense.

Now that the agent knows what Im looking for, Im pretty confident she is going to find something perfect for me. Looks like there is a lot out there.

[ClarkGrisowld]

Dead cat bounce. Testing a bottom, at best.

I don't see the fundamentals. Vegas is clearly a market driven by the macroeconomy much more so than other cities, but obviously it will lead the larger economy. I only see the overall economy getting worse - treading water might be optimistic. Maybe you have a pick-up in volume, but I think it's temporary. I don't see the catalyst, and you can't make a claim the market has turned without making a strong case for the catalyst. If I'm an investor, I'm in absolutely no hurry to bottom feed until I see a potential catalyst forming on the horizon.

And OLECAPT, I appreciate your posts, but you should attach a disclaimer that you are a realtor. I know you don't hide it, and you actually clearly said it in one of your recent posts. But 99.9% of the population does not talk about a market turn in terms of volume, and other than a desperate seller or motivated buyer (lease is up), buyers think of bottoms and market health in terms of price. I understand your perspective, but only a realtor talks about market bottoms in terms of volume.

[CuriousMike]

Originally Posted by olecapt

I too doubt the relationship between loan application and successful sales. May simple say there are far less unqualified people applying...which is good.

Loan apps down 13% since the beginning of May. In one month!

I don't see how that can be a good thing.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by ClarkGrisowld

Dead cat bounce. Testing a bottom, at best.

I don't see the fundamentals. Vegas is clearly a market driven by the macroeconomy much more so than other cities, but obviously it will lead the larger economy. I only see the overall economy getting worse - treading water might be optimistic. Maybe you have a pick-up in volume, but I think it's temporary. I don't see the catalyst, and you can't make a claim the market has turned without making a strong case for the catalyst. If I'm an investor, I'm in absolutely no hurry to bottom feed until I see a potential catalyst forming on the horizon.

And OLECAPT, I appreciate your posts, but you should attach a disclaimer that you are a realtor. I know you don't hide it, and you actually clearly said it in one of your recent posts. But 99.9% of the population does not talk about a market turn in terms of volume, and other than a desperate seller or motivated buyer (lease is up), buyers think of bottoms and market health in terms of price. I understand your perspective, but only a realtor talks about market bottoms in terms of volume.

I am also a retired high level engineer with many many years of doing high level analysis.

You cannot have a sustained dead cat bounce. Whatever is happening is continuing.

In terms of volume the peak of the REPO cycle is on us. It is going to be with us for a long time. But it is with us.

I always touch on volume, price and inventory. All indicate we are at or near bottom. All could be wrong. Attempts to ascribe local behavior to macro drivers are generally unsuccessful.

You are free to wait as long as you want. But the market is also free to do whatever it wants.