[airics]

gas $12-$15 a gallon? come on.. the truckers are already contemplating a strike at $4.79

[dano]

[quote=dude66;3839767]I'm gonna disagree with you on that. An analyst on CNBC today flat out predicted $12-$15 gallon gas is coming:

HIRSCH: There's no single thing that's going to solve this problem because it's as massive as one can possibly imagine. And the prices that we're paying at the pump today I think are going to be the good old days because others who watch this very closely forecast that we are going to be hitting $12 and $15 per gallon. And then, after that, when world oil production goes into decline, we're going to talk about rationing.

I think this is a little too dire. Once gas starts approaching $10/gallon there will be a variety of other alternatives that will be economical to invest in and produce. I also don't understand the houses as shelter and not an investment concept.

[gulfer]

What I find interesting is that when Gas was 2.50 per gallon people said the sky is falling. Now at 4.00 a gallon the world is IMPLODING!!! 1.50 per gallon, 15 gallons a week = about 90.00 more a month. Are we all that strapped that this alone completely erodes our net worth.
Make no mistake, our government should do more. But when you talk about 5.00 or 6.00 per gallon I think you are going to see telecommuting become very common in a lot of professions, major and I mean major government programs that to assist in developing more alternative fuels, hybrid vehicles (tax breaks - subsidies - tax write offs, etc..), solar and wind powered electricity and such.
Our country will make it work, we just need to vote out the people in that serve thier own interests and the interests of thier lobbiest. Yes friends, that day is coming. The average American has about all they can take. I for one can't wait to see it!!!

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by gulfer

What I find interesting is that when Gas was 2.50 per gallon people said the sky is falling. Now at 4.00 a gallon the world is IMPLODING!!! 1.50 per gallon, 15 gallons a week = about 90.00 more a month. Are we all that strapped that this alone completely erodes our net worth.
Make no mistake, our government should do more. But when you talk about 5.00 or 6.00 per gallon I think you are going to see telecommuting become very common in a lot of professions, major and I mean major government programs that to assist in developing more alternative fuels, hybrid vehicles (tax breaks - subsidies - tax write offs, etc..), solar and wind powered electricity and such.
Our country will make it work, we just need to vote out the people in that serve thier own interests and the interests of thier lobbiest. Yes friends, that day is coming. The average American has about all they can take. I for one can't wait to see it!!!

It is amazing. $4 gas the cars get smaller. Prius gets more popular. Hell Europe has been running on $7/8 a gallon right along. Europe has not collapsed.

Makes the French look smart. You use oil only for mobility. Everything else based on nuclear or other. One adopts to the reality.

At some point shale oil becomes recoverable. The Canadians have more oil there then all the reserves of the Middle East.

Has some interesting shifts...favors the compact cities of the east over the sprawl of the west I would think. Then again places like Nevada have virtually unlimited land for solar exploitation. And nothing is as good as watts per square meter in any of those techniques.

No real crisis..just another reordering of things.

[bosozoku]

Originally Posted by airics

crashed - do you have an mls number - there was a house at aliante that i had looked at too, it was cheap.. dont remember exactly - but it had a mold problem also

i think that house was going for around 143k.. i was gonna offer 190k, but also saw the mold inside...i just backed out.

[airics]

Found it... it was on divers loons mls 821792, i will keep checking assessors to see the sale price bet it was over 200k.. original asking was 159... the bank took the first offer so i bet it was substantial

[dmilll]

Originally Posted by olecapt

It is amazing. $4 gas the cars get smaller. Prius gets more popular. Hell Europe has been running on $7/8 a gallon right along. Europe has not collapsed.

Makes the French look smart. You use oil only for mobility. Everything else based on nuclear or other. One adopts to the reality.

At some point shale oil becomes recoverable. The Canadians have more oil there then all the reserves of the Middle East.

Has some interesting shifts...favors the compact cities of the east over the sprawl of the west I would think. Then again places like Nevada have virtually unlimited land for solar exploitation. And nothing is as good as watts per square meter in any of those techniques.

No real crisis..just another reordering of things.

$7 + for a gallon of gas is not the end of the world but it will sure cut deeper into many peoples disposable income. I wonder how many people from CA and the surrounding areas will continue to make the drive to Vegas if prices go up that far.

Since we are on the subject…

With the current technology available, Nuclear may be a viable option but I just don’t see anything moving that will help in the short term. With all the red tape and lawsuits from the NIMBY (not in my backyard) lobby, there hasn’t been a new nuclear power plant or oil refinery built stateside in the last 30 years. Solar may also be a solution but I think it’s a case of lots of promise but not quite ready for prime time.

I read somewhere that Shale Oil is hard to extract but can be done for profit if oil is somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 per barrel. With the current state of ANWAR and Gulf drilling, how long will it realistically take to get these deposits online?

There may be no real crisis now but the Valley economy is still largely dependant on tourism and the disposable income these people bring. IMO, the signs at least short term do not look very promising…

[ClarkGrisowld]

Originally Posted by dude66

Not likely. How can the national economy rebound when it's entirely dependent on a commodity (oil) that is relentlessly getting more expensive every day? It just hit $133/barrel today(!)

And the Fed doesn't share your view, either:

May 21, 2008

Fed sees slower growth, higher unemployment in '08

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday sharply lowered its projection for economic growth this year, citing blows from the housing and credit debacles along with zooming energy prices. It also expects higher unemployment and inflation.

Fed sees slower growth, higher unemployment in '08 - Yahoo! News (broken link)

Because that doesn't contradict what I said....3-6 months takes us right up to the end of the year. Turning the corner refers bottoming. And plenty of markets people don't exactly think the feds are geniuses.

And there are plenty of other driving factors to the economy besides energy prices, and it has proved remarkably resilient to energy. This latest downturn has been driven by credit far more than energy prices. I believe we are in recession now and I expect it to be fairly short and shallow. Rate cuts take about 12-18 months to have an effect, which is about the timeframe we are in. In 3-6 months, I expect those cuts to start taking effect and starting a rebound. It will probably be another rather soft rebound, and, yes, between now and then we'll see some more job cuts and an uptick in inflation. I don't buy the doomsday scenarios. We are in another cyclical downturn and one I expect to be rather brief and shallow.

Nothing about that fed statement is inconsistent with my views. Just a few weeks ago, bulls were already speculating we'd turned the corner with the market up some 11% from it's lows (and the stock market will usually lead the general economy by 6-12 months) and some good data. Now, we get some bad data and the bears are weighing in again.

And oil has a GIGANTIC speculative premium built into it. I don't believe in shorting momentum plays as this can easily go another $20 higher, but it's a screaming short right now. For crying out loud, T Boone Pickens was short oil and natural gas back in February, and I think he was saying something like $60 or $80 a barrel. Now he comes out and says $200 a barrel before long. He knows his stuff, but those are price targets based on speculative markets and not fundamentals.

[crashed]

Originally Posted by airics

crashed - do you have an mls number - there was a house at aliante that i had looked at too, it was cheap.. dont remember exactly - but it had a mold problem also

I don't as it has already closed. But no house in my neighborhood is going for over 200K. The one next door has lowered the price 3 times and now it is down to 190K, not sure if that one is in contract or not.

[WOHR]

The Europeans are paying between $8 and $10 a gallon now.