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Old 08-28-2010, 05:07 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,452,676 times
Reputation: 498

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Quote:
Originally Posted by JM95 View Post
The cap has buried (drowned?) more homeowners than the local cemetery.
Cap is often wrong - but never in doubt!
Exactly
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Old 08-28-2010, 07:25 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,264,428 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
Exactly
Where has Tony been the last two hours?

Tearing through the archives trying to find a couple of olecapt recommendations that were wrong or damaging. Probably been over to the old RJ files...but nothing there either is there Tony?...

Too bad Tony...too bad...
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Old 08-28-2010, 09:25 PM
 
Location: Paranoid State
13,044 posts, read 13,906,591 times
Reputation: 15839
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
... And I feel no real need to gloat over your many wrong calls...
There are very few people who could make a call on what happened in our financial markets & real estate markets (linked, of course) over the last several years. In fact, anyone who did call the market right was probably lucky rather than smart.

But then again, as the old saying goes, "I'd rather be lucky than smart."

Jimmy Cayne, for example, lost over $1 Billion on Bear Sterns stock, riding it all the way into bankruptcy. As Chairman & CEO of Bear Sterns, he was not unsophisticated... yet he lost over a billion dollars. And he was not the only one.

I received an unsolicited offer of $4.8 Million on my 5300 sf home (w/ 1800 sf garage/shop) in the foothills above Silicon Valley at the peak of the bubble. I turned it down (how dumb was I??? I wanted an even $5 mil). I ended up selling 8 months ago for $3.2 Million. Over a million & a half in paper loss over a period of about 3 years. (OK, not a loss -- my basis was about $1.2 Mil). I am not asking for sympathy; I'm just saying lots of people cannot forecast the future.

There is no need to dump on anyone who is wrong about their forecasts. The aggregate of forecasts tends to be right -- just not any specific forecast.
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Old 08-28-2010, 11:02 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,452,676 times
Reputation: 498
Quote:
Originally Posted by SportyandMisty View Post
There are very few people who could make a call on what happened in our financial markets & real estate markets (linked, of course) over the last several years. In fact, anyone who did call the market right was probably lucky rather than smart.

But then again, as the old saying goes, "I'd rather be lucky than smart."

Jimmy Cayne, for example, lost over $1 Billion on Bear Sterns stock, riding it all the way into bankruptcy. As Chairman & CEO of Bear Sterns, he was not unsophisticated... yet he lost over a billion dollars. And he was not the only one.
John Paulson made ~$4 billion personally, and over $15 billion for his fund, shorting the housing market. Nor was he the only one. You don't make that kind of money by dumb luck. It simply doesn't happen...outside of a lottery ticket.
Quote:
I received an unsolicited offer of $4.8 Million on my 5300 sf home (w/ 1800 sf garage/shop) in the foothills above Silicon Valley at the peak of the bubble. I turned it down (how dumb was I??? I wanted an even $5 mil). I ended up selling 8 months ago for $3.2 Million. Over a million & a half in paper loss over a period of about 3 years. (OK, not a loss -- my basis was about $1.2 Mil). I am not asking for sympathy; I'm just saying lots of people cannot forecast the future.

There is no need to dump on anyone who is wrong about their forecasts. The aggregate of forecasts tends to be right -- just not any specific forecast.
I'm not sure how long you've been reading this particular forum, but I assure you the aggregate of his forecasts are sorely lacking. You may want to start here are work your way forward -
https://www.city-data.com/forum/las-v...te-market.html
That thread only goes back to early 2008. If you were to register at the Las Vegas Review Journal forum his horrifically wrong calls go back as far as 2006. I encourage anyone and everyone in this forum to do so if for no other reason than the entertainment value.

Who hasn't been wrong before? No one. I have no expectations for anyone to be perfect in their forecasts, including myself. I only began posting up his failed prognostications (and trust me, they are legion) when I noticed him constantly telling people who had taken a cautious stance on housing, that they didn't know what they were talking about. In the fullness of time, we learned exactly who didn't know what they were talking about.
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Old 08-28-2010, 11:19 PM
 
1,347 posts, read 2,452,676 times
Reputation: 498
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Where has Tony been the last two hours?

Tearing through the archives trying to find a couple of olecapt recommendations that were wrong or damaging. Probably been over to the old RJ files...but nothing there either is there Tony?...

Too bad Tony...too bad...
Here I am Cappy! Shoot, it doesn't look like I even have to post your horrendous track record any more. Heck, in less than 24 hours there were four people who pointed out (five if you count me ) your bad calls. It appears my work here is done.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/15654481-post2835.html

https://www.city-data.com/forum/15655466-post2837.html

https://www.city-data.com/forum/15665031-post2848.html

https://www.city-data.com/forum/15665177-post2849.html

Now, why don't you try exhibiting a bit of integrity and go make good on your lost bet?

Last edited by tony soprano; 08-28-2010 at 11:34 PM..
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Old 08-29-2010, 08:31 AM
 
11,179 posts, read 16,055,690 times
Reputation: 29946
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheriwx View Post
Oh please. Cap has done nothing more than offer his opinion on where things were headed. If people chose to buy or not to buy based solely on the opinion of one internet realtor on a forum, they are idiots. Saying OleCap is responsible for people choosing to buy a house in a down market is ludicrous. So he guessed wrong. Who cares. We're all wrong sometime or another.
Well said.
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Old 08-29-2010, 08:38 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,264,428 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony soprano View Post
Here I am Cappy! Shoot, it doesn't look like I even have to post your horrendous track record any more. Heck, in less than 24 hours there were four people who pointed out (five if you count me ) your bad calls. It appears my work here is done.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/15654481-post2835.html

https://www.city-data.com/forum/15655466-post2837.html

https://www.city-data.com/forum/15665031-post2848.html

https://www.city-data.com/forum/15665177-post2849.html

Now, why don't you try exhibiting a bit of integrity and go make good on your lost bet?
Could not find a single one Tony?

Thought not...Now strike a blow for your integrity and admit oldcapt made no bad recommendations to anyone.
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Old 08-29-2010, 09:13 AM
 
Location: Nebuchadnezzar
968 posts, read 2,065,697 times
Reputation: 348
I appreciate Olecapt's view and also Tony Soprano's counterbalance. Unfortunately, their back and forth has devolved into personal and petty flames.

Olecapt has provided some invaluable information. He seems knowledgeable about neighborhoods, the in's and out's of Las Vegas real estate, and has recommended resources when needed. Olecapt not participating would be a loss to the forum.
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Old 08-29-2010, 09:33 AM
 
Location: Nebuchadnezzar
968 posts, read 2,065,697 times
Reputation: 348
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt View Post
Could not find a single one Tony?

Thought not...Now strike a blow for your integrity and admit oldcapt made no bad recommendations to anyone.

I try to be complimentary, then you do this. Geez!
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Old 08-29-2010, 10:19 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,756 posts, read 38,264,428 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swigchow View Post
I try to be complimentary, then you do this. Geez!
Truth Swigchow?

It is your position that I should abandon truth to make Tony feel better?

This interchange is and remains venomous. Tony routinely claims thats outlooks and predictions are somehow recommendations to buy or sell. They are not. He routinely questions integrity and honesty.

Sorry...I just don't take that kind of BS.
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