[08grad]

[Jeers McGee]

Howard Hughes n Caesar's say its OveR. It's gonna be a debacle.

[nickydim]

Just saw a real estate report on the local news saying things are solid and the next year they are expecting values go continue to grow. Maybe not at the 10% like the last couple of years.

[Merrily Gather]

It still has some ways to go. Unemployment is down. Interest rates are being cut. Consumer confidence is high even though it dropped in June. People are more likely to take out loans when this happens. It also depends on the election. Trump will probably be reelected. The rich tax cuts will repeat.

Opinions differ on when something will happen. Some say we're at least two-three years out from a bust. Others say we'll know by summer of 2020. While others say that we're at the end of an extended boom period, longest running bull market in history, and that the start of the recession is already here. They can only predict a few months out with any certainty.

[homerboy]

For those who were in Vegas during the 2007-2008 crash, what happened to the businesses and casinos?


Did you notice small businesses and casinos closing down? Or did they all hung in there and weathered the storm?

[Dom Cobb]

Housing (Real Estate) is one of the most simple markets to understand.

Net migration into Las Vegas continues to increase YoY and there is a finite supply of (usable/buildable/desirable) land here. Within that, you have most land sold to large developers who then parcel out neighborhoods and build individual homes. That is a micro oligopoly that controls the prices to a certain degree.

Prices are a function of the elasticity of the demand of houses in relationship to the supply
of houses.

People who own houses are compelled to sell for various reasons, but if they sell they either are back into the market for buying at a higher price or renting. Rents are increasing faster than home prices;

https://news3lv.com/news/local/las-v...me-values-drop

Las Vegas has a large population of baby boomers who by in large are moving here to age in place;

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...pulations/amp/

Diversification of the Las Vegas economy since 2009 and people working remotely means more people will continue to move
Here for tax and business purposes.

So on the supply side, there won’t be enough to meet demand AT the prices individuals want. The other factor to consider is that landlords own a ton of houses here.

However, large companies are buying homes for investment purposes.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...un-supply/amp/

Do I see prices growing 10% indefinitely? No. Do I see a crash, No.

[SoHoVe]

There is no reason to expect anything like what came before...things may slow down at some point but people won't have the subprime mortgage realities to deal with which were a major factor in the implosion of the housing market.

With that being said after witnessing what happened before I would be leary investing in ANY housing market when prices are inflated. Right now I don't think prices are ridiculously high as much as simply recovered to about where they should be.

[luckydogg]

According to this article, LV is currently in the top 10 cities for where millennials are moving to in the US. Then you have all the people fleeing California due to the high cost. LV is in huge demand and not sure this is going to change anytime soon.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mille...141638782.html

[ddrhazy]

Probably we've plateaued. Enjoy the stability for now.

[JonathanLB]

Originally Posted by Dom Cobb

Housing (Real Estate) is one of the most simple markets to understand.

Net migration into Las Vegas continues to increase YoY and there is a finite supply of (usable/buildable/desirable) land here. Within that, you have most land sold to large developers who then parcel out neighborhoods and build individual homes. That is a micro oligopoly that controls the prices to a certain degree.

Prices are a function of the elasticity of the demand of houses in relationship to the supply
of houses.

People who own houses are compelled to sell for various reasons, but if they sell they either are back into the market for buying at a higher price or renting. Rents are increasing faster than home prices;

https://news3lv.com/news/local/las-v...me-values-drop

Las Vegas has a large population of baby boomers who by in large are moving here to age in place;

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...pulations/amp/

Diversification of the Las Vegas economy since 2009 and people working remotely means more people will continue to move
Here for tax and business purposes.

So on the supply side, there won’t be enough to meet demand AT the prices individuals want. The other factor to consider is that landlords own a ton of houses here.

However, large companies are buying homes for investment purposes.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...un-supply/amp/

Do I see prices growing 10% indefinitely? No. Do I see a crash, No.

Yeah good analysis, I agree. The mistake some locals make - and I know I take heat for saying this - is the assumption that there’s not a significant portion of people moving to Vegas who don’t care about the local economy and don’t rely upon it. Both of my aunts and both of my uncles were retired, they had pensions or later social security and in some cases multiple out of state rental properties providing income. No Vegas jobs. My other friend who moved to Vegas bought a $1 million home in Summerlin (coming like so many from Los Angeles) and put $500,000 into the remodel. He runs a conservative Internet source and makes his money nationwide, independent of the local economy. My Long Beach real state agent is nearing retirement and her husband and her are moving to Vegas because their money goes further. Both have a good deal of money saved from a lifetime of success in SoCal. I run a company that’s nationwide and independent of any local economics - we have shot in 42 states plus DC. That means everyone I personally know doesn’t rely on anything about the median income in Vegas or whatever the economy is doing at a micro level.

As long as Vegas remains a good buy for many people in expensive West Coast cities, the housing market will be robust. Will there be some downturns? Of course, that’s the nature of economics really. It’s not a straight line up no matter what market segment. But the trend will be up.

As it stands now I think the next few years are going to be mundane in most markets, maybe 1-4% gains that basically match inflation and not much better than that. But a stable market will be fine and won’t hurt anyone, it just won’t make your house a big winner as an investment. My win isn’t hoping my house appreciates, it’s saving on property taxes and income taxes from where I came while also having a luxury home compared to an average suburban home. I’m just basically getting a lot more for my money, so I didn’t expect when I bought it was a particularly good or bad time to buy. Neutral, really.

I do think you’re going to continue to see something in every major city that will tick off the liberals, though. They keep showing Millennials want to live in big cities and have an active urban lifestyle. The reality is cities are not for poor people. They’re for middle class to upper middle class. Small towns and mid-level cities (200,000 people or so) are more friendly for those without much money and a low income. If everyone wants to live in a big city, it’s going to be expensive to do so or other sacrifices have to be made - roommates, smaller houses, townhomes, more meager accommodations. It’s just the reality of market forces.