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I believe that the suburbs have basically stopped growing at least at the speed that they were growing. But do I think that the suburbs are finished? No, the suburbs will always be alive. Many people like the lifestyle of living close to a large national known city but feel as if they live in suburban sprawl or a bedroom community. And usually when you think of suburbs you think of "white flight". Just because white flight is not happening anymore or you could say that it is not a thing that is going on anymore, does not mean that the suburbs are finished. Even in my suburban city I see more diversity, mainly new wealthy Asian immigrants, and with this new wave of people will bring a new start to the suburbs.
The suburbs may be CHANGING! But they are not ENDING!
I don't think you will see an end to suburbia. Look at the growth in areas such as suburban Raleigh, Charlotte, Northern VA. What might happen is some of the more exurban areas might see a bit of a decline, as well as areas which offer rather poor transit options to the city its a suburb of.
This dude loves posting these things about the downfall of the 'burbs, but he's forgetting that LI doesn't really apply to the video because a) it's a lot older and follows a relatively urban model of development by today's suburban standards, especially in Nassau and western suffolk. b) it's slightly more city-ish than most other suburbs, whereas a lot of other 'burbs are completely overrun by big-box, Costco and chain restaurants, LI has a lot of locally-owned alternatives in its shopping centers and Main streets that LIers still shop and eat at regularly c) most LI towns are developed on a full semi-grid system rather than the "artery with one-road-access neighborhoods" you see in exurbs and western cities--this saves you gas and cuts down on traffic d) most importantly, LI has one of the best (not to mention the busiest) suburban public-transportation commuting options available in the nation with the LIRR. e) NYC is not an abandoned donut hole like many other cities like Buffalo and Detroit--suburbanites in the NY metro don't have a shrinking central city to feel guilty about when growth radiates farther out.
and not to mention, lastly f) LI has grown over the decades to become its own region of NY state, and have its own identity. Everyone knows what you're talking about when you say you're from "the Island." Many local news sources identify a place like "Freeport, LI" instead of the NY used for the other suburbs. Quite a feat, haha.
Yeah I kind of agree with Andy. It's only been a short time...but I see it as very different here from the other "burbs" I have lived in (Westchester county, the suburbs north of Salt Lake City, and just outside Honolulu). It is pretty clear that Suffolk County feeds off NYC the way many many other suburbs do.
It is pretty clear that Suffolk County feeds off NYC the way many many other suburbs do.
Is it different in Nassau county?
Well, having lived on LI for almost 60 years I can tell you that western Suffolk County today is pretty much just like Nassau County was forty years ago. And so I expect that 40 years from now, eastern Suffolk will resemble today's western Suffolk. I also agree with Andy in that Long Island is not a "typical" American suburb and that it very much has its own identity and can't be put in the same stereotype/classification as any other USA suburban area.
Yeah, LI doesn't really have McMansion exurbs--there are a few areas in that style but it's not nearly as bad. Nassau County sure isn't going anywhere though we need to work more on smart growth. Some of Suffolk might see some pressure, though, as the sprawl is worse there and it's harder to get around.
[quote=Andysocks;4790215] NYC is not an abandoned donut hole like many other cities like Buffalo and Detroit--suburbanites in the NY metro don't have a shrinking central city to feel guilty about when growth radiates farther out.
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Very true, NYC, Chicago, and D.C. are really the three metro areas were the suburbs were successful for everyone, including the city. Where Detroit (for sure), Cleveland, and Buffalo has that "donut hole" affect as you mentioned and the city greatly declined and weakend when the suburbs were being developed.
Not speaking of NY specifically but of cities and suburbia, generally - I think if people move back to the cities or closer to the cities, they will have a hard time unloading McMansions because retirees who aren't tied to jobs, and can live in suburbia (no need for commuting) just fine, don't need or want those really big expensive suckers. I also think if you have oil heat, lots of luck with selling your suburban house. I'd be thinking people with one level ranch homes (3 bedrooms or less), no oil heat, would have no trouble selling their homes to retirees if that's the population shift.
And wouldn't retirees come back to Long Island to be near their city-living families if it was once again affordable to live on LI in retirement?
I'm guessing an exodus of working families to the cities/near the cities would probably cause suburban property tax to fall (if ever) or stay the same in suburbia - retirees don't need schools or lots of roads. They're also not a high crime demo so if they're the main demo left living in suburbia, you don't need a big police force. That being said, they need services so some young families (but not the ones that can afford McMansions) would still live in suburbia to be near their service industry jobs meaning it won't be Senior Town. I think that's a good thing.
The LI shoreline could be totally developed for tourism (and not just for the rich like the Hamptons). Working people in the city will be looking for a nearby vacation destination when airline prices are out of reach due to fuel prices. That will also mean more tourist-related service jobs on LI. It will also mean more businesses to pick up the tax burden which will again, give the retirees a break on taxes.
The shoreline won't be developed because it's parkland, and I for one would oppose any efforts to change that.
I don't see LI as a seniors paradise. Suburbs attract, and will continue to attract, families who want the space and yards. If anything, seniors (and other childless groups) are the prime targets for living in the city themselves--no need to drive, close to great medical facilities, smaller living units.
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