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If we keep taking the course we are on, things dont look good for LI, unless you like SoCal and Los Angeles.
Rich areas on the north shore of Nassau, and NW Suffolk as well as the Hamptons will get richer. Everything else will probably turn ghetto. I see the biggest areas of decline in central Nassau, following the LIRR mainline from Mineola on east through Ronkonkoma. Property values will drop as more flophouses move in, congested roads, and noisy skies will also aid in the decline of these areas.
The congestion in Suffolk, particularly Lake Grove will grow worse and spread eastward across the remainder of the county.
Of course it wouldn't have to be this way, if we stopped overdevelopment, McMansions, knockdowns, and enforced housing codes. But the political slime only cares about getting more $$ and not the quality of life.
In 2020, the Westbury area will be no different from those wonderful places like Rosedale and South Jamaica. Lake Grove will be like Roosevelt Field is now. And whatever's left of the Pine Barrens will be beset with dumping and illegal activity that makes ATV's look tame. Just look at SoCal, with drug gangs operating IN parks.
Anyone who is expected to make payments of 70% of net pay on a house - should have their heads examined. The mortgage lender should have their license revoked. Carrying that mortgage, results in P&I of $2,500, add another $900 for taxes and we haven't even started talking about insurance, heat and electricity. Don't forget about food to keep the family ALIVE!!!
And don't forget $150 or more a month of PMI.
That's the part that some people still don't get. 100K income and a 425K house is just not sustainable. I suspect that many of the houses selling now are the result of the 8K tax credit..what happens when that dries up also?
And then there is the infamous "second wave" of foreclosures that we keep hearing about, due the second half of this year.
That's the part that some people still don't get. 100K income and a 425K house is just not sustainable. I suspect that many of the houses selling now are the result of the 8K tax credit..what happens when that dries up also?
And then there is the infamous "second wave" of foreclosures that we keep hearing about, due the second half of this year.
The wave is coming, more like a tsunami. FHA just announced they are raising the fees it requires to be paid to it. Let's not forget, that FHA just has 0.5% of capital reserves set aside versus the 2.0% required by law. Not only will the homeowners need another bailout, but so will FHA.
This will clearly impact the "rosy" future we all expect.
30 years ago, my boss sold a 4 bed, 2 bath colonial in Alexandria ( a high end neighborhood just a stone's throw from the potomac) to buy a one bedroom in manhattan.. and he paid more for the one bedroom apt in manhattan. He then sold his apt in manhattan to move to NY suburbs, and paid a little more.
After 30 years, the equation is still similar. Why should it be any different 30 years now?
Quote:
Originally Posted by dman72
I think that LI will remain expensive relative to the rest of the country, but I don't agree that banged up 425K 4 bed 2 bath will float..it barely is now, and there isn't some great boom of jobs coming. A family making 100K combined as the previous poster mentioned, probably won't get a mortgage on a house for 425K unless they have 100K down, and most people don't. Banks cannot and will not give people 4 times their annual income in mortgage in a shaky economy. You can live 60 miles from DC and buy a 4 bed 2 bath that is less than 10 years old on for less than 300K now. Look it up.
The owner can list there 4 bedroom high ranch for $425k..someone might even offer 425K..but will the deal close? Will the bank appraise it that high?
30 years ago, my boss sold a 4 bed, 2 bath colonial in Alexandria ( a high end neighborhood just a stone's throw from the potomac) to buy a one bedroom in manhattan.. and he paid more for the one bedroom apt in manhattan. He then sold his apt in manhattan to move to NY suburbs, and paid a little more.
After 30 years, the equation is still similar. Why should it be any different 30 years now?
Well, if he moved from a sketchy part of Alexandria (yes there are) to Manhattan to a huge house in Garden City, that might explain it. Anecdotes.
My neighbors have their house on the market...4 bed/2 bath Cape w/garage. Really nice house. Listed around 450K. Within 2 weeks of listing they had accepted a strong offer. Everything is moving along smoothly and then the bank said no on the mortgage because it didn't appraise high enough. Place is still on the market.
My neighbors have their house on the market...4 bed/2 bath Cape w/garage. Really nice house. Listed around 450K. Within 2 weeks of listing they had accepted a strong offer. Everything is moving along smoothly and then the bank said no on the mortgage because it didn't appraise high enough. Place is still on the market.
It came in pretty close from what I heard, but still below what the bank would allow. I don't know any of the fine details, like down payment info and total amount they were looking to mortgage etc, so that could have factored in as well. I was told the appraisal was the deal killer.
It came in pretty close from what I heard, but still below what the bank would allow. I don't know any of the fine details, like down payment info and total amount they were looking to mortgage etc, so that could have factored in as well. I was told the appraisal was the deal killer.
Which may explain why the house near my parents isn't sold yet. Very nice house, but wayyyyy overpriced in that area.
It's nice to think that LI is "special" for its proximity to the city. It is to some extent when you're talking about very specific areas. But, people STILL either don't get it, refuse to believe it, or just need too much money to break even everywhere. Prices are still way over inflated on a broad scale all across the Island.
When that next wave of foreclosures hit this year, you better hope you don't have to sell your house anytime soon as you watch your neighbors ruin what little value you think you have right now.
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