How can you consider $500,000 to be "affordable housing"? (Long Beach: lenders, house)

[Beth56]

Originally Posted by jemarqu

Thanks for the question.

These numbers are from zillow.com. There have been substantial gains in the last 2 years so I will take a 10 year number over the 5.

10 year gains:
Pasadena 298.5%
La Canada 294.0%
North Hollywood 327.9%
Long Beach 289.2%
Los Angeles Co. 277.3%
San Bernardino Co. 290.2%
Riverside Co. 304.1%
California 240.3%

Even the entire country went up over 120%.
United States 121.7%

Perhaps these were the 10 year gains. We were speaking about 5 year gains per your quote below.

"With housing increases of 280% in a 5 year period, the fear of a tremendous drop (up to 50%) is real."

I'm sure if you want to go back a little further, say 1975, you will see the gains probably in the 500 percent area. I remember houses selling for $35,000 in a market where they are now $2M.

[Beth56]

Originally Posted by PacificKamikaze

My wife is from Tokyo and native Japanese find our housing prices cheap.

According to a friend of mine who buys international properties, California prices aren't that high compared to the rest of the world. Just like gas I guess.

[jemarqu]

Originally Posted by Beth56

Perhaps these were the 10 year gains. We were speaking about 5 year gains per your quote below.

"With housing increases of 280% in a 5 year period, the fear of a tremendous drop (up to 50%) is real."

I'm sure if you want to go back a little further, say 1975, you will see the gains probably in the 500 percent area. I remember houses selling for $35,000 in a market where they are now $2M.

The 5 year period is from 2000 to 2005. There is no seven year data.

[Hawkeye48]

A half a million dollar house is only affordable if you are pulling in the big bucks. Personally, if I had that kind of money, I'd buy a nice 3000 square foot house somewhere in the middle of Iowa and retire.

[jemarqu]

Originally Posted by Hawkeye48

A half a million dollar house is only affordable if you are pulling in the big bucks. Personally, if I had that kind of money, I'd buy a nice 3000 square foot house somewhere in the middle of Iowa and retire.

The problem is the people who were out buying the 500k homes couldn't afford them. That is why the foreclosures of August 2007 are 300% higher then August 2006. Once the rest of the "teaser" loans reset we should expect even more foreclosures.

U.S. home foreclosures soar in August - Yahoo! News (broken link)

I included a source in case Beth didn't believe me.

[Beth56]

Originally Posted by jemarqu

The problem is the people who were out buying the 500k homes couldn't afford them. That is why the foreclosures of August 2007 are 300% higher then August 2006. Once the rest of the "teaser" loans reset we should expect even more foreclosures.

U.S. home foreclosures soar in August - Yahoo! News (broken link)

I included a source in case Beth didn't believe me.

Hey, I have no problem with the foreclosure information. My problem was strickley with some of the housing gain info you provided.

[jemarqu]

Originally Posted by Beth56

Hey, I have no problem with the foreclosure information. My problem was strickley with some of the housing gain info you provided.

I still believe that my 280% in 5 years (2001-2006) holds true in many areas of Southern California. My 10 year data reflects the bubble that occurred during 2001 to 2006. Last year actually shows a drop in most areas and there were no substantial gains from 1997-2000.

The real price increase took place when the Feds started dropping rates after 9/11.

[jemarqu]

Then again if you don't believe in the real estate bubble there is nothing I can say to convince you otherwise.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by jemarqu

Then again if you don't believe in the real estate bubble there is nothing I can say to convince you otherwise.

This is sort of interesting....


YouTube - Dr. Housing Bubble - Real Homes of Genius


Doctor Housing Bubble Blog

[Beth56]

Originally Posted by jemarqu

I still believe that my 280% in 5 years (2001-2006) holds true in many areas of Southern California.

This is the area where you and I differ. I bought this rental home in July of 2000 and it has not appreciated 280%, nor have any properties in my area. And as I said, I live in a very expensive and desireable area at the beach. I am fairly aggressive in my daily research of the market. In order for me to agree with your percentage, I would have to go back several more years which is fine. But not in the timeframe you have suggested. I have lived here for over 50 years and am very familiar with my area. I hope this helps. I certainly don't wish to say you don't know what you are talking about. We just do not agree. Beth