Are we in a real estate bubble?

[wror]

By the end of this century, I have this vision, all of Route 495, inclusive inward to Boston, will be urban boroughs. Like you see around New York City now.

100 years ago a good number of the towns around Boston,within 128, were farming areas. Your already seeing a good number of towns within 495 that were farming towns 50 years

In the 1950s and into the early 1960s, BROCKTON housing had one of the highest property values in New England. Look at the slumcity today.

So yes, there will be a housing bubble

[Whatsnext75]

When do you ?think it would happen

[MrLinderman]

Originally Posted by NewfieMama

I know for a fact that if I (as a woman in my 30s), asked my parents to give up any of their retirement investments so I could buy a house, they would whole-heartedly laugh in my face. And I love them for that. Then again, they bought me Dave Ramsey's books when I was a teenager and I still live by his simple debt-free formula, so discussions about money/saving/living modestly were very common in my house.

I happened to notice how many houses were for sale on Jerusalem Rd. the other day--I work in the area and it's a pretty drive, so I sometimes take it if I'm going to lunch in Cohasset. I figured most people were trying to get their house on the market to get top dollar BEFORE the summer months. If I were buying a multi-million dollar beach house, I'd want to get in it ASAP and enjoy it during prime summer months!



I think towns like Hingham, Cohasset, Scituate and Norwell will always appeal to those who have school-aged kids who want a little more space and access to beaches. Norwell obviously doesn't have beaches, but it does have large, 2+ acre lots, which has its own appeal. The commute is part of the equation, but many don't think an hour door-to-door is so bad (my husband is one of them). I had a tough time doing it with kids, so I moved my job to the 'burbs and have a 15-minute commute. I have many friends who like taking the train or boat because it's relaxing and they can get things done or read. I have other friends who changed their hours to avoid rush hour. I do have two friends in Milton and they love it, but it's a more urban vibe and I don't think people in the Hingham/Cohasset/Scituate/Norwell area are looking for that.

I think an hour door to door is a breeze these days, but unless you're leaving at 6am, those towns, especially Scituate and Cohasset would be much closer to 2 hours than 1 each way. If I'm not HOVing with my wife, an hour is slightly above average commute for me from Quincy.

[Whatsnext75]

Yeah...traffic makes soo much of a difference. People make it seem like it's no big deal but it is. Even milton to downtown boston in rush hour (and vice versa) is brutal.

It's inevitable though...not going away

[gf2020]

Originally Posted by dpm1

We have a household income greater than the median in almost all towns in greater Boston as well as significant cash reserves. Seems pretty solidly middle class to me.

If that's true then you should be shopping with a budget greater than $300K. You said yourself, we "are feeling pretty dejected about the market." Even that house in Hyde Park posted above, sold for $409K, and it is a completely original 1600 sq ft 1955 colonial.

[mdovell]

"I think towns like Hingham, Cohasset, Scituate and Norwell will always appeal to those who have school-aged kids who want a little more space and access to beaches. Norwell obviously doesn't have beaches, but it does have large, 2+ acre lots, which has its own appeal. The commute is part of the equation, but many don't think an hour door-to-door is so bad (my husband is one of them). I had a tough time doing it with kids, so I moved my job to the 'burbs and have a 15-minute commute. I have many friends who like taking the train or boat because it's relaxing and they can get things done or read. I have other friends who changed their hours to avoid rush hour. I do have two friends in Milton and they love it, but it's a more urban vibe and I don't think people in the Hingham/Cohasset/Scituate/Norwell area are looking for that."

Uh....The problem I see with many of these places is frankly demographically they are the same and so are the buildings. I've worked in Norwell for awhile and can attest that traffic is an issue during lunch. Without being that specific Hingham has some serious political issues. They might not get much for state aid but still.

[escape_mass]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Oh, for sure. I lived through those strides, but I'd be really hesitant to drop 400K+ on a modest home in Belvedere when the schools remain 'meh' and access to 95/Boston becomes increasingly worse. Same for Nashua, but unlike Lowell, it's doesn't have UMass stifling it's downtown development.

Then you would be missing out on a terrific city with good upside potential on a real estate purchase.

Generally, having a college increases a city's desirability--Lowell has UMass Lowell and Middlesex Community College, both well regarded and expanding. They tend to bring start-ups, investment in supporting infrastructure and act as an anchor for surrounding businesses. See Macom's recent announcement for expansion in Lowell. MACOM breaks ground on big Lowell expansion (VIDEO) - Lowell Sun Online

Schools vary across the city, with success stories (LCCPS Charter School level 1 MCAS for last 4 years) but also some that should be improved. Big push right now to either re-build the high school or build a new campus.

Belvidere is a nice area, with homes ranging from $250K to $Million+, but generally a better value than homes closer to Boston. Many of the older homes have beautiful moldings, hardwood floors, high ceilings for the same price point that a modest home in other areas would go for.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by escape_mass

Then you would be missing out on a terrific city with good upside potential on a real estate purchase.

Generally, having a college increases a city's desirability--Lowell has UMass Lowell and Middlesex Community College, both well regarded and expanding. They tend to bring start-ups, investment in supporting infrastructure and act as an anchor for surrounding businesses. See Macom's recent announcement for expansion in Lowell. MACOM breaks ground on big Lowell expansion (VIDEO) - Lowell Sun Online

Schools vary across the city, with success stories (LCCPS Charter School level 1 MCAS for last 4 years) but also some that should be improved. Big push right now to either re-build the high school or build a new campus.

Belvidere is a nice area, with homes ranging from $250K to $Million+, but generally a better value than homes closer to Boston. Many of the older homes have beautiful moldings, hardwood floors, high ceilings for the same price point that a modest home in other areas would go for.

My issue with UMass is, while it has it's very real upsides, it continues to plunder the downtown area which should be serving and attracting working professionals. Most recently, they purchased the Perkins Lofts to convert to dorm rooms, which effectively pushed out the downtown's wealthiest young professionals (it's stripped the city of significant tax revenue).

As for Belvidere, yes, it's an awesome neighborhood. I rented a foursquare abutting the country club and it was a completely pleasant existence with zero crime and good walking/biking access to the downtown restaurants. This said, I was living in Lowell during the '08 crash and, while the city has made much progress since then, I don't see RE fairing much better in another downturn. Certainly the small post-war homes selling for 340k+ will see notable depreciation, considering only a few years prior they were 220-260k and have seen minimal improvements.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by NewfieMama

I know for a fact that if I (as a woman in my 30s), asked my parents to give up any of their retirement investments so I could buy a house, they would whole-heartedly laugh in my face.

Mine as well.


I grew up in a household where my dad would tell our dog to get a job to pay for his food. Nothing came unearned.

[MrLinderman]

I bet you there is a loneliness factor too when it comes to some of these parents giving up retirement savings to help a kid buy a house. The parents want the kid close by, and probably (Maybe naively) think of it as a way to get a foot in the door to moving in with their children down the line. I bet you it would be especially true for a widowed and/or divorced parent. Hell, when my wife and I have kids, my mother would literally give me her house if it meant she got to be a live in grandma/babysitter. I'm already losing my hair fast enough, so I don't want to rip the rest of it out, so it's a no go thankfully.

It's the parents who give their special snowflake everything then subsist on rice and beans and catfood in a slummy senior housing apartment that confuse me. Like your kid needs your money because you've never taught them to be a grown-up, so your solution is to give them more money?