Are we in a real estate bubble? (Boston, Lowell: for sale, apartment)

[Whatsnext75]

I realize no one knows for sure but thought I'd ask for opinions. We were in Cohasset over easter and driving down Jerusalem rd and all over the area there were a LOT of homes for sale. I know it's spring...but if you were living in a place like Cohasset where would you be moving up to? Downsizing maybe? It just seemed really strange to see so many people selling and made us wonder if people were thinking this is as high as it's going to get, let's sell now.

[Shrewsburried]

My parents are selling for the reasons you suggest. They bought a smaller home for dirt cheap when the market was deflated and now plan to cash out of their primary residence while the market is hot and prices are up. They're not expecting a major 'crash', at least in the short term, but given their timeline selling now is the least risky option - especially when they're floating two homes.

As for a bubble ... I suspect only if society collapses or interest rates bump big time. People seem to forget that when homes were being slashed and burned in places like AZ, FL, MI, home prices in greater Boston merely slid sideways. Wealth is concentrating in the major metros, so I suspect it would take something more than a recession to kill this market.

This said, I wouldn't want to be caught buying property in places like Lowell, Nashua, Hudson, etc. right before a market dump. These places will take a beating, just as they did in '08.

[mdovell]

Well how can everyone downsize? It's like when gas prices were high and you couldn't sell huge SUV's and a hybrid sold for more than blue book value.

Eh...Lowell made some significant strides.

Having said this I don't think there's a bubble with housing. Retail on the other hand is popping. We simply have way too much retail space in the USA. Having worked for a box store for 3.5 years the waste vs a online store is massive. I think there might be a restaurant one given the increases in minimum wage, health care costs, more people eating at home and services like blue apron. If they have a plan and willing to stick it out that's one thing. If it's just a hobby and they really don't know what they are doing that's something else.

[BostonTankah]

How about Salem?
Buying a 4 br 1 bath 1325 sq home on 5k sq lot.
Good enough bones. New water boiler/ furnace.
Will I lose or break even at 297k?

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Eh...Lowell made some significant strides.

Oh, for sure. I lived through those strides, but I'd be really hesitant to drop 400K+ on a modest home in Belvedere when the schools remain 'meh' and access to 95/Boston becomes increasingly worse. Same for Nashua, but unlike Lowell, it's doesn't have UMass stifling it's downtown development.

[Arya Stark]

I think no. What everyone seems to forget is that from 2000 until now people were leaving their homes and going to florida or assisted living or 55+. So there was a glut of to too great homes. But now... it is getting to the point where there is no stock the old person moving out group has stabilized. Leaving little places to live.

[Hockeygirl063]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Well how can everyone downsize? It's like when gas prices were high and you couldn't sell huge SUV's and a hybrid sold for more than blue book value.

Eh...Lowell made some significant strides.

Having said this I don't think there's a bubble with housing. Retail on the other hand is popping. We simply have way too much retail space in the USA. Having worked for a box store for 3.5 years the waste vs a online store is massive. I think there might be a restaurant one given the increases in minimum wage, health care costs, more people eating at home and services like blue apron. If they have a plan and willing to stick it out that's one thing. If it's just a hobby and they really don't know what they are doing that's something else.

And so many places have an online presence now. I do buy some online mostly from LL Bean. But still shop in an actual building for most stuff.

[Boston_Burbs]

What I am seeing now among my 30 "townie" peers is a generational wealth transfer. Parents are downsizing but carving off a portion of their proceeds to give to their kids to buy a place, adding an additional apartment to their home to live in, or sell their homes to their kids at a reduced rate.

Also there is the late 30s crowd that is leaving Boston where they were double income professionals for 10+ years who saw their condo go through insane appreciation with hefty down payments and high salaries.

But I look at the western part of the state where I grew up and the real estate is cheaper but not to the level of lost income and job security, at least in STEM fields. While the real estate is high in eastern MA I still think it is worth it for the high salary potential that exists in the Boston Metro.

[Whatsnext75]

So what could this exodus in cohasset be? It really seemed odd that there were so many homes on the market...and i couldnt understand why so many people would want to leave such a beautiful place.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by Whatsnext75

So what could this exodus in cohasset be? It really seemed odd that there were so many homes on the market...and i couldnt understand why so many people would want to leave such a beautiful place.

While beautiful, it's not the easiest place to commute in and out of. Perhaps now that prices have exceeded 2005 highs, sellers are looking to relocate.