Are there signs of people leaving Boston for cheaper parts of the state yet? (to rent, mortgages)

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

The median male salary is $89k. The median female salary is $66k. The housing market pricing is aligned with dual income couples. Looking at transactions where Irfox is buying/bought on Redfin, I see 2 bedroom condos that sold this year in the $400s. With a good credit rating, the median dual income couple at ~$150k with a respectable down payment can buy into that market. Interest rates are really low.

If you’re in the forever alone crowd or married trailer trash Barbie, you need to be pretty high income. The usual complete your education, launch your career, then marry your socioeconomic equal, and stay married is the recipe for success.

Right but the "median" household is not a dual income couple, nor is the poster that reply was originally made to. Also, those in the first time homebuyer age categories (20s and 30s) are assumed to bring home considerably lower salaries than the medians you referenced for all adults. Especially when you add on kids or student loans, most did not get a chance to save a significant down payment. Homebuying just isn't happening for most in Greater Boston, it's become a luxury.

[Bridge781]

I think many people who aren’t dual income would have problems buying a house they want

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by massnative71

Right but the "median" household is not a dual income couple, nor is the poster that reply was originally made to. Also, those in the first time homebuyer age categories (20s and 30s) are assumed to bring home considerably lower salaries than the medians you referenced for all adults. Especially when you add on kids or student loans, most did not get a chance to save a significant down payment. Homebuying just isn't happening for most in Greater Boston, it's become a luxury.

The homeownership rate for Suffolk County is 35%, for Middlesex and Essex around 67%, and for Norfolk about 75%. While it seems the median household income can’t afford a house, the median household seems to own a house anyway.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOWNRATEACS025025
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOWNRATEACS025017
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOWNRATEACS025009
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOWNRATEACS025021

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

The homeownership rate for Suffolk County is 35%, for Middlesex and Essex around 67%, and for Norfolk about 75%. While it seems the median household income can’t afford a house, the median household seems to own a house anyway.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOWNRATEACS025025
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOWNRATEACS025017
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOWNRATEACS025009
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOWNRATEACS025021

Because the "median household" bought before the housing prices lost all sense of reason. You can only wonder how many of these same people would be stuck living with roommates had they been starting out today.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by simplexsimon

You all in on gold or international or both?

I've been long gold (via backed ETFs and large cap miners) since Q4 of '18. Shed some weight recently. I wouldn't personally touch it now ... I'm no Schiff.

Most of my portfolio is standard issue stuff ... FAANG heavy ETFs, etc. My active trading is small as a portion of my IRA and largely involves selling covered options to collect premiums.

[FCMA]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

To this point, I know a senior automotive tech on a single income (temporary until wife returns to the labor force) who just bought a $470K home ... albeit with a healthy 20%+ down payment. His income is just short of median + OT

The automotive tech was smart enough to pursue a trade that likely paid his way to train. Any university debt? That’s a huge obstacle to saving for many under 40 who didn’t have a passion for or a robot-like focus on the bling areas of study, and had supportive boomer parents who saved enough waiting tables to buy a house in the city when they graduated from Northeastern in the 70s who encouraged them to study what they enjoy. Turns out that was the exact opposite of the correct advice (pursue STEM or a trade, nothing in between) and oh well some will simply never own anything here.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by FCMA

The automotive tech was smart enough to pursue a trade that likely paid his way to train. Likely no university debt. That’s a huge obstacle to saving for many under 40 who didn’t have a passion for or a robot-like focus on the bling areas of study, and had supportive boomer parents who saved enough waiting tables to buy a house in the city when they graduated from Northeastern in the 70s who encouraged them to study what they enjoy. Turns out that was the exact opposite of the correct advice (pursue STEM or a trade, nothing in between).

It's an intuitive assumption, but his reckless use of credit during his enlisted years resulted in a sizeable debt burden.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by massnative71

Because the "median household" bought before the housing prices lost all sense of reason. You can only wonder how many of these same people would be stuck living with roommates had they been starting out today.

The median household income also skews by age (https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...cket-1967-2018), so it’s not reasonable to take the median income for everyone but then only talk about the people who are buying right now. Well over half of the people outside Suffolk County own. I’d be interested to see how those numbers skew with age cohort and how that has changed of time. With the exception of a brief bubble in 2001-2010, the ratio of house price to income ratio has seen only modest gains since 1980 (it jumped from about 4 to about 5) in the Boston Metro area.

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/pr...istoric-highs/

It’s certainly getting tougher to buy a house, but it hasn’t gone from easy to impossible.

If you think about it, without a big change in population or in the amount of housing, the occupancy rate probably won’t change much. If there are enough houses for 60% or 70% of the people, the price will just move to whatever that 60% or 70% can afford. With increasing incomes, decreasing interest, and greater willingness to overspend on housing, that can mean a big increase in prices.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

If you think about it, without a big change in population or in the amount of housing, the occupancy rate probably won’t change much. If there are enough houses for 60% or 70% of the people, the price will just move to whatever that 60% or 70% can afford. With increasing incomes, decreasing interest, and greater willingness to overspend on housing, that can mean a big increase in prices.

I agree in the short, but in the 10+ year timeline the coming demographic shift should create a demand gap which can only be closed with larger scale immigration. The current refi hoard will also stay put if and when rates rise, further stifling demand.

We're effectively at or near peak housing demand for the next decade or two ... large portion of Boomers aging in place and Millenials hitting home buying age ... simultaneously. The admission pressures currently being seen in higher ed should create similar demand issues in the housing market.

[mdovell]

Of course there is this https://www.patriotledger.com/news/2...discrimination

Now I heard rumors about some of this years ago from someone that told me that she knew someone that had trouble getting a house in Marshfield because...she's Indian.

When I mentioned it to people in the area they tried to say that it isn't true or that it would be illegal..well yeah it's illegal. but then again there's no media in much of the state so the argument that people would find out is slim to none.

Of course racism or not but the lack of diversity holds places back. People of color represent nearly a third of the population. Factoring out that, the fact we don't really have immigration and the massive retirements of baby boomers drain significant labor resources. Let's not also remember that in order to be on local boards and committees usually requires residency which then have a say in local hiring. Then many are not in Metco and which then gets to the last resort....the 40B. Then that hits the roof as they have no say in the process. Now with COVID with people working from home you bump into more at home vs if they were at some other office. Police are not funded let alone prepared fir domestics. Also to note with respect to couples buying houses that's fine but if there's divorce (and half the time there is) it makes it complicated. then again otherwise you'd have people trapped in bad marriages.