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Old 11-15-2007, 07:37 AM
 
20,793 posts, read 61,351,943 times
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It's mid-November and no snow--heck, we still have green grass and roses on our rose bushes. Shouldn't we normally have snow on the ground right now? With all your weather data, when is the average first measurable snowfall for the Twin Cities?

A related note--and big snowstorm potential in the near future--anything winding up in the Pacific???
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Old 11-15-2007, 08:35 AM
 
Location: E ND & NW MN
4,818 posts, read 11,013,102 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by golfgal View Post
It's mid-November and no snow--heck, we still have green grass and roses on our rose bushes. Shouldn't we normally have snow on the ground right now? With all your weather data, when is the average first measurable snowfall for the Twin Cities?

A related note--and big snowstorm potential in the near future--anything winding up in the Pacific???

Golfgal

I found this web site of data compiled by someone from the twin cities area which looks at data back to the late 1880s....it has a wealth of info for anyone....
Minneapolis-St. Paul Yearly Temperature, Precipitation, and Snowfall Graphs

As for upcoming outlook....long range models typically have a very difficult time handling the strong Pacific Jet that is currently slamming into the Pac NW and B.C. They have difficulty beyond about day 4 in handling the strentgh of these systems and tend to create storms from them in the long range (days 5 onward) when in fact nothing does form. Thus...we try to look at trends in the models and not one particulary model run. The trend is for a possible storm to affect parts of midwest Thanksgiving day period into the weekend....but again track and timing are very uncertain. It would appear the farther south you are in Minnesota and down into Iowa and over into Wisconsin the better chc of anything wintry. Overall....our local office climo expert does expect this milder and drier than normal pattern to persist into early December and then possibly a long term pattern change to a more stormier pattern the second or third week of December.

Now...our database that I am able to query for the airport goes back to 1946.
I sent a data query for MSP airport for first and last dates of certain snowfall.... Now the columns might get messed up so hope you can read it ok...


Last and first dates of snowfall of greater than 0.5 inch

Average Apr 6 Nov 14

by year (1946-present) Last date First date

1946 | May 11 Nov 10
1947 | Apr 17 Nov 7
1948 | Mar 6 Nov 20
1949 | Apr 14 Nov 16
1950 | Apr 29 Nov 8
1951 | Apr 7 Oct 30
1952 | Apr 9 Nov 25
1953 | Mar 15 Nov 21
1954 | May 2 Nov 26
1955 | Mar 21 Oct 29
1956 | Apr 7 Nov 15
1957 | Apr 10 Nov 8
1958 | Apr 6 Nov 23
1959 | Mar 12 Oct 12
1960 | Mar 25 Nov 17
1961 | Apr 16 Nov 21
1962 | Apr 12 Nov 23
1963 | Apr 22 Dec 2
1964 | Apr 13 Nov 25
1965 | Apr 25 Nov 26
1966 | Mar 23 Nov 9
1967 | Mar 20 Dec 9
1968 | Feb 28 Nov 16
1969 | Mar 28 Oct 12
1970 | Apr 13 Nov 3
1971 | Apr 2 Nov 22
1972 | Apr 21 Nov 30
1973 | Apr 9 Dec 4
1974 | Apr 4 Nov 26
1975 | Apr 9 Nov 9
1976 | May 2 Oct 18
1977 | Apr 4 Oct 10
1978 | Apr 20 Nov 12
1979 | Mar 23 Nov 8
1980 | Apr 9 Nov 28
1981 | Apr 4 Oct 24
1982 | Apr 20 Oct 19
1983 | Apr 14 Nov 9
1984 | Apr 30 Nov 27
1985 | Mar 31 Nov 9
1986 | Mar 18 Nov 10
1987 | Mar 1 Nov 17
1988 | Apr 23 Nov 5
1989 | Mar 17 Nov 3
1990 | Apr 16 Nov 3
1991 | Apr 12 Oct 31
1992 | Apr 10 Nov 1
1993 | Mar 31 Nov 4
1994 | Apr 28 Nov 27
1995 | Mar 7 Nov 1
1996 | Apr 14 Nov 15
1997 | Miss Nov 2
1998 | Mar 18 Dec 20
1999 | Mar 9 Nov 23
2000 | Apr 13 Nov 8
2001 | Apr 3 Nov 27
2002 | Apr 28 Nov 6
2003 | Apr 5 Nov 4
2004 | Mar 17 Nov 28
2005 | Mar 18 Nov 15
2006 | Mar 16 Dec 21
2007 | Apr 11 Miss

-------------------------------------------------------

First and last dates of snowfall greater than 2 inches....
Average Mar 15 Dec 2

by year (1946-present) Last date First date and days between

1946 | May 11 Nov 10
1947 | Jan 30 Nov 7
1948 | Mar 6 Jan 23
1949 | Apr 14 Dec 9
1950 | Apr 25 Nov 22
1951 | Apr 7 Nov 3
1952 | Mar 22 Nov 25
1953 | Mar 15 Mar 12
1954 | May 2 Nov 26
1955 | Feb 18 Oct 29
1956 | Mar 28 Nov 15
1957 | Apr 10 Nov 18
1958 | Nov 18 Nov 23
1959 | Feb 10 Nov 5
1960 | Jan 2 Feb 18
1961 | Apr 16 Dec 9
1962 | Apr 12 Nov 23
1963 | Apr 22 Dec 8
1964 | Apr 13 Nov 27
1965 | Mar 28 Jan 2
1966 | Mar 23 Nov 11
1967 | Mar 20 Jan 12
1968 | Jan 27 Dec 19
1969 | Mar 28 Dec 6
1970 | Mar 19 Nov 26
1971 | Mar 15 Nov 23
1972 | Apr 21 Dec 5
1973 | Feb 25 Dec 4
1974 | Apr 3 Dec 18
1975 | Mar 27 Nov 20
1976 | Mar 5 Dec 3
1977 | Mar 17 Oct 10
1978 | Mar 13 Nov 17
1979 | Mar 23 Nov 21
1980 | Apr 9 Feb 21
1981 | Feb 21 Nov 18
1982 | Mar 19 Dec 27
1983 | Apr 14 Nov 9
1984 | Apr 30 Dec 14
1985 | Mar 31 Nov 22
1986 | Mar 13 Dec 2
1987 | Jan 29 Nov 29
1988 | Feb 8 Nov 5
1989 | Mar 17 Nov 21
1990 | Feb 23 Nov 3
1991 | Feb 23 Oct 31
1992 | Mar 21 Nov 1
1993 | Mar 9 Nov 25
1994 | Apr 28 Nov 27
1995 | Mar 6 Nov 26
1996 | Mar 25 Nov 20
1997 | Miss Nov 13
1998 | Mar 18 Jan 2
1999 | Mar 9 Dec 19
2000 | Feb 13 Nov 16
2001 | Mar 13 Nov 27
2002 | Apr 28 Feb 3
2003 | Mar 12 Nov 24
2004 | Mar 6 Jan 22
2005 | Mar 18 Nov 25
2006 | Mar 16 Dec 31
2007 | Mar 1 Miss

Last edited by Kamsack; 11-15-2007 at 08:39 AM.. Reason: to include web site link
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Old 11-15-2007, 02:07 PM
 
20,793 posts, read 61,351,943 times
Reputation: 10695
Thanks for the info and taking the time to look it up!! A Thanksgiving weekend blizzard sounds good--except for those traveling! Here's crossing our fingers for some snow!
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Old 11-16-2007, 09:11 AM
 
Location: Brooklyn, New York
151 posts, read 157,774 times
Reputation: 36
North Central U.S. Long-Range Weather Forecasts & Predictions - Farmers' Almanac

This may help you.
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