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Also note that the article says shootings are way up this year. This is another one of those concrete bits of evidence that seems to run counter to the soft statistics otherwise presented. It's slightly easier to hide bullets than bodies, but not much.
Also note that the article says shootings are way up this year. This is another one of those concrete bits of evidence that seems to run counter to the soft statistics otherwise presented. It's slightly easier to hide bullets than bodies, but not much.
Exactly. Murders were up almost 6% in the city, and neighborhoods like Mott Haven also saw murder increases. Add in that there were more shootings, stabbings, and less drug and gun arrests, things are pointing down. There is absolutely no way around this.
Diexie cup you are choosing to see what you want to support your opinion. With just about all crimes at record lows for 2008, you choose to focus on the one that is SLIGHTLY up (up from the record low of 2007 I might add) and then huff and puff and claim "it ain't all what they say it is." Seriously people...unless crime goes down 10% per year every year you will complain? And then if it goes down "only" 9% people will jump and scream "see I told you so the city is reverting back to the 70s." Some people just like to focus only on the negative. And SuperMario....murders were up MARGINALLY...that is a NORMAL variation...but hey you can look at just 1 stat, and ignore everything else..who cares right? Murders are up SLIGHTLY from the record low therefore the city will be on the verge of a collapse and "all things are pointing down." What a joke. There are normal variations from year to year..kinda like housing prices, stocks....they change from year to year..up and down...but it is the LONG TERM TRENDS that matter..and in the long term..housing and stocks have been going UP (although lately they have been down), and CRIME has bee going DOWN, and lately it has STILL been going down, although murders are up slightly from the record low of last year. That is normal....you expect crime to go down 10% per year, every year? And unless it does "there is no way around this." Right.
I think they just enjoy everything that is negative....and take some sort of strange comfort in bad news/doomsday scenarios. It's scary...the city has never been safer..and actually has a LOWER crime rate than last year, which was the record (2007), and yet they still find SOMETHING, ANYTHING to be negative about...amazing. Imagine if crime actually went up .00001% versus last year...they would think the city will become a warzone.
You yourself have said that crime is going to increase. Nobody is saying it's going to be 1990 again. Is it really that hard to believe that crime will increase? The city IMO bottomed out in murders in 2007. That 496 is the lowest it can go in a city of 8,000,0000. Even criminologist (?) have a hard time believing that this nuumber can get any lower unless you start putting cops inside peoples homes. Remember there are very few homicides between strangers. Most occur with people who know each other. That's the best they can do. That is how you get 523 last year. And it's not any normal increase. If it increased 6%, which is significant, but if our economy was great, and we still had the same number of drug and gun arrests, shootings and stabbings where at their normal level, and we still had the same amount of cops on the streets, then I would just categorize the increase as a yearly fluctuation. But this increase accompanies many negatives in todays NYC, all of which I mentioned above. This is why I think crime will not fluctuate, but it's going to be creeping upwards in the years to come.
I do not know whether crime will increase anymore than you do, or anyone else for that matter. We have tow issues here..1-SuperWario you have been claiming the city will go into a downward spiral of crime for years now....so what you are saying NOW is the same thing you said last year, and the year before, and on and on. This is not your honest opinion based on fact..it is the rhetoric you keep using over and over again. It just so happens to SOUND more reasonable today to SOME people....but despite whatever is occuring, you would still be saying the same doom and gloom, so let's not pretend that you are actually thinking and using balanced thought to come to this conclusion. This is further supported by your "496 is the lowest it can go" rhetoric...the lowest it can go is ZERO. People have been saying the lowest number was 1,500, then 1,200, then 1,000 for sure..never under 1,000 that's the lowest it can go! Then 900, then 800, then 700, then, 600 for sure..now THAT is the lowest it can go! Then it hit 496 and now everyone is jumping on the "this is the lowest it can go" rhetoric as usual. Last year was 523...a NORMAL variation..crime rates do not go down forever and it is NORMAL to have an up year..it is the LONG TERM trends that count..not the year over year variations. 2- I understand what the reasons are for crime to "have to increase" this year...the economy, the deficit, foreclosures, the aliens invading, the T-Virus escaping from the hive...we get it. SO WHAT IF CRIME INCREASES THIS YEAR? It is NORMAL! If crimes goes up 100% THAT is a problem..if crime goes up this year..that is okay...and NORMAL. I don't see why though you are SPELLING DOOM? All signs SO FAR, and over the last 15 years have pointed to a decreasing LONG TERM crime rate....and as soon as 1 stat increases marginally from the record low of last year...you scream "downward spiral." Give me a break.
I do not know whether crime will increase anymore than you do, or anyone else for that matter. We have tow issues here..1-SuperWario you have been claiming the city will go into a downward spiral of crime for years now....so what you are saying NOW is the same thing you said last year, and the year before, and on and on. This is not your honest opinion based on fact..it is the rhetoric you keep using over and over again. It just so happens to SOUND more reasonable today to SOME people....but despite whatever is occuring, you would still be saying the same doom and gloom, so let's not pretend that you are actually thinking and using balanced thought to come to this conclusion. This is further supported by your "496 is the lowest it can go" rhetoric...the lowest it can go is ZERO. People have been saying the lowest number was 1,500, then 1,200, then 1,000 for sure..never under 1,000 that's the lowest it can go! Then 900, then 800, then 700, then, 600 for sure..now THAT is the lowest it can go! Then it hit 496 and now everyone is jumping on the "this is the lowest it can go" rhetoric as usual. Last year was 523...a NORMAL variation..crime rates do not go down forever and it is NORMAL to have an up year..it is the LONG TERM trends that count..not the year over year variations. 2- I understand what the reasons are for crime to "have to increase" this year...the economy, the deficit, foreclosures, the aliens invading, the T-Virus escaping from the hive...we get it. SO WHAT IF CRIME INCREASES THIS YEAR? It is NORMAL! If crimes goes up 100% THAT is a problem..if crime goes up this year..that is okay...and NORMAL. I don't see why though you are SPELLING DOOM? All signs SO FAR, and over the last 15 years have pointed to a decreasing LONG TERM crime rate....and as soon as 1 stat increases marginally from the record low of last year...you scream "downward spiral." Give me a break.
C'mon, for years? You're making it seemed like I've been here for 10 years saying the same stuff. Last year I said it because we were up to a 20% increase in total homicdes in the city at one point, is it such a crime (no pun intended) to predict an increase? Moreso in the Bronx which was up to 50% at one point. And you're not paying attention if you think im not using stats. Of course I am! Or else I'd have no argument. LOL 0? I know you're an optimistic guy but that is impossible. A city this size will never drop to 0. You have too many loonies. And it was in an article I read, so criminologist are the ones saying it. And I agree with it. What are you going to do? Start putting cops in people's homes? lol. Remember when homicides were in the 1000's, people were just so used to that number that they never tought it could go any lower. But they were just speaking out of emotion. Alot of those homicdes were commited assailant on stranger, so it was plausible to see where the NYPD could go to lower it. And they did. They cut off almost all homicides to starngers, and now the 496 that's left is mostly by people who know each other. You can't do much else. And it's not a normal increase. Have you taken into account every other factor? This is why I believe it will continue to go up.
You do know, that what comes up, must go down, and up again. It wont always be this safe. Thats just silly.
Heheh..it is not a crime to predict an increase in crime..except that you ONLY say things are getting worse, regardless of what is actually occuring. It's not just crime rates with you, its schools, housing, communities, economy, jobs, everything....its silly to say the least. You are now doing Monday night quarterbacking (aka hindsight is 20/20).....people were speaking out of emotion, they were used to it..blah blah blah....you know what those are? EXCUSES. Guess what? You are giving the SAME excuses that you did last year...and what happened in 2008? SuperWario you are right.."the NYPD could not get it lower" and "you can't do much else". Right...more excuses...now where did I hear that before..oh right..'06,'05,'04,'03,02,01...and on and on and on. Your story is more of the same SuperWario...same old story..new excuses. Do I doubt that crime MAY go up this year? Nope..but that would be NORMAL.
Why is it that if someone disagrees with a particular point of view that they are suddenly espousing rhetoric and not using their brains? Hmm...that makes one wonder, since everyone has a different experience and knowledge-base from which to draw a conclusion about many topics, including crime and the particular way that they perceive the street to be turning in relation to crime.
Frankly, any murder rate increase is intolerable, since they are not merely statistics, but human beings who are being killed. And, don't discount medical science which has helped to make formerly fatal attacks survivable in recent years, so it's not merely a concerted effort to curb crime, which I do not deny has happened, that has helped to drop the murder rate so significantly. But can this continue with a shrinking city budget?
Shootings, stabbings, and armed robbeies tend to uptick before the murder rate begins to increase, and New York is generally much safer than it was in the past. But what of the future? Why is the muder rate increasing along with an economic downturn and spikes in other criminal behaviors that could lead to murder? It could be a variation, but why did it happen? What was different? Was there a reassignment of police officers, or does the city even have enough officers to adequately protect the city? That's what needs to be addressed to determine if any increase is the result of random occurrences, or if the data are pointing to a more troubling trend.
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