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I'm in Southside Jamaica, Queens and there's 3-4 huge helicopters flying around flashing Rochdale buildings & Farmers Blvd, there's 2 of them big police trucks in Rochdale Circle 2. There's stuff blocked off, it's crazy. They're hunting somebody/people down.
It looks like something out of Batman the way they're flashing the buildings, I'm not gonna lie but it looks cool because it's so dark outside. Now I'm just gonna find out what happened.
Hehe...I hear helicopters very rarely..maybe once a year and I am in Woodstock (just north of Mott Haven). Does anyone know what the end of year stats were for 2009? Any predictions for 2010?
My prediction: I think we will see more of the same, a general trend of crime reducing in NYC. There may be a higher number of murders this year vs 2009, but I suspect it will remain at 500 or less, which is essentially supporting the decreasing trend of crime. There will no doubt be the usual graphic crimes and scary headlines, but at the end of the day I see the trend continuing. With the near total collapse of the economy in 2009 and still with a reduction in crime, 2010 (with its forcast of stabilization and economic growth) should maintain the status quo barring any unforseen major event/catastrophe.
I'm in Southside Jamaica, Queens and there's 3-4 huge helicopters flying around flashing Rochdale buildings & Farmers Blvd, there's 2 of them big police trucks in Rochdale Circle 2. There's stuff blocked off, it's crazy. They're hunting somebody/people down.
It looks like something out of Batman the way they're flashing the buildings, I'm not gonna lie but it looks cool because it's so dark outside. Now I'm just gonna find out what happened.
I believe that overall crime will go up this year. It's just a gut feeling... With all the foreclosures, fires gutting bronx businesses and the usual fires in the other boroughs, high unemployment, stalled construction sites, which are EVERYWHERE in W'burg and Greenpoint and are clogged with squatters and drug addicts, a lot more homeless on the streets, and not to mention that NY state is almost broke There going to make cuts to the schools and further cuts to the NYPD and FDNY, and some hospitals. The reason crime did not go up in 2009 is because the recession just has not done enough damage to New Yorkers. I was just reading a very depressing Times article titled "In the Shadows, Day Laborers Left Homeless as Work Vanishes". I'm just saying the FDNY and NYPD will definitely have their plates full this year.
Jaged I certianly believe that is possible, but that's exactly the same prediction and reason why crime was supposed to skyrocket in 2009. It was also the same prediction (on this site) for different reasons of course (like crime CANT go any further down, impossible, it's time) in 2007/2006/2005/2004 and on and on...
So although I agree that it is possible for all those reasons your stated, and it was possible for all those other reasons stated every year before, NYC has proven the skeptics wrong, year after year after year. Crime MAY increase for 2010, but what does that really mean? 1 year does not make a trend, some years are up, some years are down, but the longer term trends have crime decreasing...and I see nothing to indicate a reversal YET.
And my opinion is from living in a notoriously higher crime community..so spikes in crime happen here first. Any inkling of a spike in crime will no doubt be squashed quickly with a sever clamping down of cops....the days of just ignoring crime are over. So this is wh I don't see any substantial increases in crime..the city, and residents won't allow it to get out of hand...things have changed.
Well, first of all it's the NYPD that keeps the city safe. And guess what? Some think-tank up in Albany wants to freeze the pays of police officers among other government services in order to cut $30 billion of debt that has surmounted to over $100 billion.
I never thought that crime would go up 2004/2005/2006/2007 because we were not in a recession. We were also still in a real estate boom up.
Long term trends in crime usually begin with something, such as a recession.*There is a checklist for a declining city, such as unemployment, homelessness, rise in welfare checks, etc. Luckily we have not checked off everything yet to cause this chain reaction. However, if you take cuts out on the police, which is very possible, then there is a high chance of the city's crime increasing.
Once NYPD pays are frozen, if they are, I guarantee you they will stop caring as much about patrolling. Do you really believe that this city has changed that much? The monster is just hiding underneath and I know it is still there. Take away the police and the monster will come out.
Well if we go by your standard of frozen pay, what happened a couple years ago when pay was REDUCED for incoming recruits? Did this lead to an increase in crime because cops didn't care? Nope...crime kept falling. What happened when year after year since 2000, the police department kept shrinking to around 36,000 currently. Crime continued to go down. What happend at the near total collapse of our economy in late 2008 and through 2009....crime declined.
So although I agree that you have good rationalizations for why crime SHOULD go up...there have always been those crying wolf with seemingly great reasons...and what has been the end result? Crime continues to go down..again and again.
I really believe the city has changed that much. Why do I believe that? When the last blackout occured I guess it was August 2003 or 2004...what happened in the city? NADA..nothing..zilch..there was no crime spree, there was no looting, there was no crime. The people came together, helped eachother out, haung out with their neighbors on the stoops like things used to be back in the day. Sure there were a few isolated knuckleheads doing what kids do..but overall..it was a non-event. That clearly demonstrated to me that we have turned a corner...and nobody wants to go back to the way things were.
Furthermore, the community is now in control and are the ones demanding changes, and making things happen...and the residents are seeing the changes and are benefitting from them. Instead of the higher-crime communities being ignored, which is the source of the bulk of the crime in NYC, there is profound investment in them, much of which is community driven, and residents have taken notice. Ultimately, if the city chooses to pursue a policy of disinvestment/abandonement, then yes, I would agree that crime would increase..and dramatically. But that is not the case, and the city is committed to making a difference in these higher crime communities of color, and THAT is why crime has gone down dramatically, and stays down. You focus on proactive investment, policing, and work with the community, as they have been doing for 20 years, and you will reap the benefits..and that is exactly what is happening.
You should note that communities in the Southern Bronx, while still higher crime than most other NYC areas, are now dealing with quality of life issues, with crime taking a backseat. We want trees, parks, access to the waterfront, more trash cans, more middle income "green" housing, more retail/amenities, instead of the old focus of we need safety because crime is out of control. That is a monumental mentality change, and indicative of what is happening across the city. I see no signs of that changing.
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There going to make cuts to the schools and further cuts to the NYPD and FDNY, and some hospitals. The reason crime did not go up in 2009 is because the recession just has not done enough damage to New Yorkers. I was just reading a very depressing Times article titled "In the Shadows, Day Laborers Left Homeless as Work Vanishes". I'm just saying the FDNY and NYPD will definitely have their plates full this year.
