Quote:
Originally Posted by Carolina_native
I just disagree.
2008 was a unique election year, much like 1992. You have to think if Clinton really campaigned here it could have tilted the election in 1992.
In 1996 Dole won NC by 4 %. In 2000 Bush won by about 13 % , in 2004 Bush won by 12.4 %. Now that is definitely not rending blue at all. NC turned blue, barely, in 2008, by less than 1 %, and then trended back red in 2012 by 2.5 %.
Democrats also held the convention here in 2012, but still lost NC by more in 2012 than 2008.
I agree with you that time will only tell what the future holds, but I think NC is much more likely to stay red than blue.
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Alright where to start...
-You have to look at the difference between NC's vote and the national average. Looking at just one will tell you nothing.
-2008 was not unique. That kind of outcome happens all the time in US politics. It is only recently that we've begun getting closer elections like '00, '04, and '12, because of the way the parties have drafted their platforms and constituencies in recent years. They're more ideological and less flexible than before, so the number of states up for grabs is lower, and the US has settled into a pattern of long-term red and blue states. The kinds of landslides we used to get... where one candidate wins almost every state, 1964 LBJ or 1984 Ronald Reagan, are probably impossible now, as the two major parties are more careful to field viable candidates and the US public is more ideological and partisan than it used to be.
-Clinton won his elections by larger margins than Obama, and Bush won in '04 and '00.
-Reagan and Bush Sr both won their elections by even larger margins than Clinton.
-NC was at its most conservative during the Clinton years, when the rest of the country was heavily blue, including the mississippi delta states, georgia, and florida, but NC still refused to be won. The trend since then has been unmistakable. It's been much more rapid in VA and NV because of their smaller populations and close proximity to blue border states.
-Holding a convention here means nothing. Romney's from Massachussetts but did that do anything? Not even a little bump. The states are more about ideologies than favors at this point.
Parties realign, and over time states change allegiances.
I think what has happened is that the "Southern Strategy" pulled NC firmly into the red camp when it had been a relatively blue state from the Great Depression up to 1980. The southern democrats that controlled the state government for many decades are mostly republicans now, or out of office. Center-right conservatives who used to vote for southern democratic presidential candidates (like Clinton and Carter), and southern democratic politicians, are now voting solidly Republican. The Democrats' new contingent in the state is based on white liberals the cities, and minorities, instead of eastern NC like the old one.