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Old 11-20-2013, 12:06 PM
 
Location: Central Maine
2,866 posts, read 3,614,000 times
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YES!!! Undoubtably!!!
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Old 11-20-2013, 05:29 PM
 
Location: Durham, NC
1,615 posts, read 1,953,761 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carolina_native View Post
I just disagree.

2008 was a unique election year, much like 1992. You have to think if Clinton really campaigned here it could have tilted the election in 1992.

In 1996 Dole won NC by 4 %. In 2000 Bush won by about 13 % , in 2004 Bush won by 12.4 %. Now that is definitely not rending blue at all. NC turned blue, barely, in 2008, by less than 1 %, and then trended back red in 2012 by 2.5 %.

Democrats also held the convention here in 2012, but still lost NC by more in 2012 than 2008.

I agree with you that time will only tell what the future holds, but I think NC is much more likely to stay red than blue.
Alright where to start...

-You have to look at the difference between NC's vote and the national average. Looking at just one will tell you nothing.
-2008 was not unique. That kind of outcome happens all the time in US politics. It is only recently that we've begun getting closer elections like '00, '04, and '12, because of the way the parties have drafted their platforms and constituencies in recent years. They're more ideological and less flexible than before, so the number of states up for grabs is lower, and the US has settled into a pattern of long-term red and blue states. The kinds of landslides we used to get... where one candidate wins almost every state, 1964 LBJ or 1984 Ronald Reagan, are probably impossible now, as the two major parties are more careful to field viable candidates and the US public is more ideological and partisan than it used to be.
-Clinton won his elections by larger margins than Obama, and Bush won in '04 and '00.
-Reagan and Bush Sr both won their elections by even larger margins than Clinton.
-NC was at its most conservative during the Clinton years, when the rest of the country was heavily blue, including the mississippi delta states, georgia, and florida, but NC still refused to be won. The trend since then has been unmistakable. It's been much more rapid in VA and NV because of their smaller populations and close proximity to blue border states.
-Holding a convention here means nothing. Romney's from Massachussetts but did that do anything? Not even a little bump. The states are more about ideologies than favors at this point.

Parties realign, and over time states change allegiances.



I think what has happened is that the "Southern Strategy" pulled NC firmly into the red camp when it had been a relatively blue state from the Great Depression up to 1980. The southern democrats that controlled the state government for many decades are mostly republicans now, or out of office. Center-right conservatives who used to vote for southern democratic presidential candidates (like Clinton and Carter), and southern democratic politicians, are now voting solidly Republican. The Democrats' new contingent in the state is based on white liberals the cities, and minorities, instead of eastern NC like the old one.
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Old 11-20-2013, 07:00 PM
 
4,539 posts, read 6,346,850 times
Reputation: 4155
Bloomberg has a great article that contains some analysis on why Virginia and North Carolina are trending to be swing states, whereas states like Missouri are not:

Quote:
Missouri looks like the American past. North Carolina and Virginia look like the future. The white share of Missouri's population, where Hispanics and Asians are few, dropped only about three percentage points from 2000 to 2010, to 80.6 percent. The white share of North Carolina's population fell almost six percentage points over the same time, from 70.2 percent to 64.7 percent. In Virginia, the drop was slightly steeper, from 70.2 percent to 64.1 percent. (Democrat Terry McAuliffe won Virginia's gubernatorial election with 36 percent of the white vote earlier this month.) Whites make up about 63 percent of the overall U.S. population -- a whopping 17 percentage points fewer than in Missouri....
Quote:
The biggest difference between Virginia and North Carolina and Missouri is those states continue to have large and growing minority populations and tech-based growth," Missouri Democratic Party chairman Roy Temple told me. "Missouri is staying the same."
Does Obama Need White People? - Bloomberg
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Old 11-23-2013, 11:47 PM
 
Location: The South
848 posts, read 1,112,938 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tarheelhombre View Post
Bloomberg has a great article that contains some analysis on why Virginia and North Carolina are trending to be swing states, whereas states like Missouri are not:





Does Obama Need White People? - Bloomberg
Makes senses...change is inevitable.
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Old 11-27-2013, 12:35 PM
 
Location: From the Middle East of the USA
1,536 posts, read 1,503,881 times
Reputation: 1915
no
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Old 08-31-2015, 05:50 AM
 
21 posts, read 23,889 times
Reputation: 46
To the people complaining about nc...go home..leave..then maybe our southern charm can return..so many of you northerners moving to the south is why our southern culture is in fragments in many places..don't complain about it if youre a northern transplant because you did it!!
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Old 08-31-2015, 06:28 AM
 
21 posts, read 23,889 times
Reputation: 46
CHarlotte still retains alot of southern culture..you can see it everywhere especially the cuisine. .livermush is more popular than bacon. Cherwine competes with coke..Carolina barbecue with slaw is available everywhere. And even with the influx of transplants from the north and elsewhere there are still plenty of the original families in charlotte whose roots go back to the civil war and before..including my family..and they still speak with a strong southern drawl.it will take decades of continued migration from other places before charlotte and the state loses its southern identity. But unfortunately that is probably what will happen eventually. Florida lost its southern identity long ago..but we still have a long way to go in the tarheel state....look away...dixieland..
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