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I agree that Chatham should be one to watch. I would also put Granville in the same boat to a lesser extent, being adjacent to Durham, Wake, and Northeastern NC (the latter of which has a pretty decent stretch of Majority African American counties.
Looking at the results for the last Presidential election, Jackson (Western Carolina University), Hyde, and Lenoir (Kinston), were pretty close. There were also a few other counties where one candidate beat another candidate by less than five percentage points, including New Hanover, which was the only "big*" county Romney was able to get in this state back in 2012.
McCrory seems a bit more vulnerable this time. Wake, Forsyth, and Mecklenburg counties all voted for him in 2012.
Chatham will definitely go blue, given the close proximity to Chapel Hill. I doubt Granville will go blue, even with the high African American population in Oxford. Vance might go blue with Henderson, plus it's a smaller county but I guess we'll see. On the other hand, Franklin County will likely go red along with Person.
Wake isn't super liberal like Durham and Orange, but it's still more blue than red without a doubt. Really, the only county in the upper Piedmont Urban Crescent that'll likely go red is Alamance.
I think the Politico article is not using the term "swing county" literally, as in, Wake is a swing county because it bounces back and for the between red and blue every election, but more figuratively, as in, if Trump is to win NC, he'll have to win Wake, because he isn't going to win Mecklenburg, and there aren't enough votes elsewhere to make up for losing both of them.
Wake and Mecklenburg vote nearly the same way in presidential elections. They're only a couple percent apart from each other at most. These are likely to remain blue counties unless the coalitions that form the two parties change majorly. They may not be as blue as Durham or Orange County, which routinely go 70-80% democratic. But 60-65% is still a pretty solid majority. Even if a Republican candidate won nationally in a landslide they would probably lose these counties now.
The urban vs rural dichotomy will play out in the next few elections. All the urban counties will be blue to some extent, except for New Hanover, which has been leaning red recently. It's just a matter of percentages. Romney won NC despite losing Wake and Meck by 10 points. If he lost them by 15+ points, the state might've gone blue. That's the difference now, basically.
A good example of a swing county would probably be Buncombe, because Asheville only barely cancels out the rural populations around it.
As for this election season... unless something big changes in the next few weeks, it's looking like Clinton will definitely win nationally, and she'll probably win NC by a larger margin than Obama did in '08. On the state side, Cooper will probably win by a landslide, and Burr/Ross is still a tossup. I expect dems to pick up a couple US House seats but still have a minority due to the intense gerrymandering. A big enough landslide for Cooper could cause them to retake the NC Senate but I don't see any way the NC House is changing hands ever... for the next 30 years. (The Senate gerrymandering is slightly less bad, because the districts have to follow county lines when possible. Only districts that are forced to break county lines can be gerrymandered).
Wake and Mecklenburg vote nearly the same way in presidential elections. They're only a couple percent apart from each other at most. These are likely to remain blue counties unless the coalitions that form the two parties change majorly. They may not be as blue as Durham or Orange County, which routinely go 70-80% democratic. But 60-65% is still a pretty solid majority. Even if a Republican candidate won nationally in a landslide they would probably lose these counties now.
In 2012 Obama got 60% of the vote in Mecklenburg, and 55% in Wake. Wake isn't as solidly blue as Meck. If Trump has a chance to carry NC, Wake is certainly one of a small handful of counties where he could possibly find enough votes to do so.
In 2012 Obama got 60% of the vote in Mecklenburg, and 55% in Wake. Wake isn't as solidly blue as Meck. If Trump has a chance to carry NC, Wake is certainly one of a small handful of counties where he could possibly find enough votes to do so.
Mecklenburg is a few percent more democratic, though not by much. That same year, Wake voted against Amendment 1 by 57%, vs 54% for Mecklenburg. Bernie Sanders also clocked in a stronger performance in Wake than in Mecklenburg, in the primaries. And Trump clocked in one of his weakest performances in Wake in the primaries (Cruz won the Triangle, while Trump won the Charlotte metro). Wake's voters are younger and the county's results tend to be more sensitive to changes in young voter turnout.
There is pretty much no chance Trump can win any of the five largest counties. Forsyth is the lightest blue out of those, and it's still unlikely.
Mecklenburg is a few percent more democratic, though not by much.
5% to be exact.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vatnos
There is pretty much no chance Trump can win any of the five largest counties.
That's not the issue. The issue is, if Trump can keep NC red, he will need to achieve at least the same level of success, or more, in Wake County as Romney did in 2012. The Politico article was simply stating that Wake is his best chance of finding the votes necessary to win NC.
Also, Mecklenburg and Wake Counties make up essentially half of all of North Carolina's growth this decade. They might make up even a larger percentage of the state's growth in the future because rural and non-suburban areas are largely declining in population to such an extent that about half of NC counties have declining populations. As such, Mecklenburg and Wake Counties may soon be the king/queen makers in presidential and state-wide elections to the same extent that NoVA is doing for Virginia.
No way Wake is a swing county. Metro areas blue, rural areas red.
THAT's a Swing county--which parts will predominate is (theoretically) up in the air. It wasn't that long ago that it would flip from election to election (remember the Republican takeover of the School Board in 2011?) Though Wake has pretty much moved into the Blue for all practical purposes, these days. But nowhere near as solid as Durham or Orange, nor all of the poor rural counties in the Northeastern part of the state.
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