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"2. A large percentage of Asian immigrants came illegally (all refugees, if given refugee status, came legally by definition)."
Isn't large percentage = majority by definition?
OK, I can see how you took it that way, although I'm not sure that's the actual definition.
But if you look at what I wrote, I also said that I think there are a little over a million Asian illegal immigrants. Since there are about 15 million Asian immigrants, that would be 1/15, which is much less than majority. I was comparing the claim that all Asian groups had come here legally v. my assertion that a million or so came illegally. So compared to 0%, even 1/15 seemed like a large percentage. But yeah, I should have worded it better. I definitely didn't mean majority.
I guess it all depends on what units of population you look at. According to the 2010 Census data, there's not a single census tract in Annandale/22003 that is less than 10% Asian. Quite a few are over 25%. I do think some of the inside-the-Beltway tracts, at least in the short term, are likely to see growth in the percentage of Hispanic residents, a decline in the percentage of white and Asian residents, and a basically flat percentage of AA residents.
The areas in NoVa with the highest concentration of Asian residents are now in either western Fairfax or eastern Loudoun, along with a couple of census tracts in the Dunn Loring/Merrifield and Lorton areas. There are census tracts in Ashburn, Centreville, Chantilly, and Dunn Loring/Merrifield, for example, where the percentage of Asian residents was between 40-50% in 2010.
Yes, you are right with the numbers. I was thinking "Korean," but wrote "Asian" instead. Mea culpa.
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Originally Posted by FC Merrifield
I can't disagree too much with people's opinions on the future demographic makeup of Annandale, but anecdotally, I just don't know of any Korean-Americans that want to move to Annandale. School systems are too important for families and younger Korean-Americans prefer the "hipness" of Arlington. This is a generalization, but new construction homes in good school districts are favored over the "charm" of older homes in closer suburbs. So those with enough money prefer Fairfax/Oakton, etc. while those with less money prefer Centreville, Chantilly, etc.
Absolutely. And don't forget places like Ashburn in Loudoun which is very popular with South Asians and to a slightly lesser extent East Asians.
I've mentioned this before. There is a national trend toward residential polarization -- the affluent singles and childless to the urban core and the affluent families toward the outer suburbs and exurbs, confirmed by the migration numbers nation-wide. Annandale is, from this perspective, caught between a rock and a hard place. It's neither as "hip" as the core nor affluent with good schools like wealthier exurbs. The good thing going for it seems to be the relative affordability and geographical propinquity to the core. Unfortunately for Annandale, since core people want to live in the core, not "close but distant" and exurb people increasingly have jobs in the exurbs and stay where they live, that's a niche with a diminishing value, I think. Again, because of this and other reasons, I suspect it will be increasingly less popular with Asians in this region.
OK, I can see how you took it that way, although I'm not sure that's the actual definition.
But if you look at what I wrote, I also said that I think there are a little over a million Asian illegal immigrants. Since there are about 15 million Asian immigrants, that would be 1/15, which is much less than majority. I was comparing the claim that all Asian groups had come here legally v. my assertion that a million or so came illegally. So compared to 0%, even 1/15 seemed like a large percentage. But yeah, I should have worded it better. I definitely didn't mean majority.
Let me try to play an uninvited referee here.
How about this? A large majority of Asians came to the States legally and have the highest naturalization rate among all the immigrant groups. While a sizable number either came illegally or overstayed their visas, that number is a relatively small minority within the overall group, certainly a much lower percentage than that for Hispanic immigrants. And Asian refugees who came as a part of the communist-driven exodus during the 1970's from what used to be French Indochina form only a small cohort within the overall group.
How about this? A large majority of Asians came to the States legally and have the highest naturalization rate among all the immigrant groups. While a sizable number either came illegally or overstayed their visas, that number is a relatively small minority within the overall group, certainly a much lower percentage than that for Hispanic immigrants. And Asian refugees who came as a part of the communist-driven exodus during the 1970's from what used to be French Indochina form only a small cohort within the overall group.
Thanks. It was my mistake to use the phrase "large percentage." I should have said sizable number or something similar.
My intention was to play down some of the "model minority" perception that's out there. Yes, generally speaking, Asians came here legally and are thriving. But for all of those with kids who climb the ladder from TJ to the Ivy League, there are significant numbers who came illegally and get by with under-the-table payments for menial work, and whose kids end up in gangs or prostitution.
Thanks. It was my mistake to use the phrase "large percentage." I should have said sizable number or something similar.
My intention was to play down some of the "model minority" perception that's out there. Yes, generally speaking, Asians came here legally and are thriving. But for all of those with kids who climb the ladder from TJ to the Ivy League, there are significant numbers who came illegally and get by with under-the-table payments for menial work, and whose kids end up in gangs or prostitution.
This was much prevalent in the West coast when I lived there but don't forget that these people are likely to come from deeply impoverished and uneducated areas of the continent. This is much less the case here in the East, especially in the DC area because the majority of Asians here are in the STEM fields or business owners.
I've mentioned this before. There is a national trend toward residential polarization -- the affluent singles and childless to the urban core and the affluent families toward the outer suburbs and exurbs, confirmed by the migration numbers nation-wide.
Perhaps in absolute numbers, but locally many of the close-in suburbs are more than holding their own as places for affluent families to live (North Arlington, other parts of relatively close-in Fairfax), and some of the expensive outer suburbs are lagging (for example, FCPS is now projecting substantial enrollment declines in many of the Great Falls-area schools). The picture may be different yet further out, but I'd submit that part of the movement toward the outer suburbs and exurbs is based on the comparative affordability of housing, and is not simply cultural self-selection at work.
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Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta
Annandale is, from this perspective, caught between a rock and a hard place. It's neither as "hip" as the core nor affluent with good schools like wealthier exurbs. The good thing going for it seems to be the relative affordability and geographical propinquity to the core. Unfortunately for Annandale, since core people want to live in the core, not "close but distant" and exurb people increasingly have jobs in the exurbs and stay where they live, that's a niche with a diminishing value, I think. Again, because of this and other reasons, I suspect it will be increasingly less popular with Asians in this region.
I basically agree with this as support for the prediction that, in the short to medium term, Annandale's Asian population is likely to decline and a lower-income, primarily Hispanic population is likely to increase. But the area's Hispanics, as well as many others, need places to live, so areas "in the middle" like Annandale have a very important role to play, even if they aren't the types of trendy places that capture the attention of the Richard Floridas or Joel Kotkins of the world. In fact, I saw some numbers recently that suggested that the three-year appreciation in RE in Annandale/20003 had been quite high compared to many parts of the DC region. The prospect that Korean retailers may also stick around in Annandale for years to come may also shore up the area (going back to the OP, while it's a bit run-down, it's still a retail/dining destination) in a way that can't be said for every aging suburb.
My intention was to play down some of the "model minority" perception that's out there.
Why play it down? You can read the Pew Survey -- the numbers are what they are. By and large, they have thrived here in this country, outpacing native whites by many metrices. That goes for double here in NoVA which has fewer "fresh-off-the-boat" types and more doctor, lawyer, engineer types. Of course, no one is suggesting they are ALL like that, but by all statistical measure our area has attracted a fairly accomplished lot.
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Yes, generally speaking, Asians came here legally and are thriving. But for all of those with kids who climb the ladder from TJ to the Ivy League, there are significant numbers who came illegally and get by with under-the-table payments for menial work, and whose kids end up in gangs or prostitution.
Yes, of course, every ethnic group has people like that at the lower rung. It's just that, among Asians, that rung is very narrow. Asians have a fraction of the crime rates of other ethnic groups, including whites. It is not useful to speak as if ALL Asians are successful and accomplished, but it is also not accurate to portray that demographic slice as if it resembles every other slice.
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Originally Posted by e30is
This was much prevalent in the West coast when I lived there but don't forget that these people are likely to come from deeply impoverished and uneducated areas of the continent. This is much less the case here in the East, especially in the DC area because the majority of Asians here are in the STEM fields or business owners.
Hmongs, for example, are notorious for low education levels, high crime rates, poverty, etc. NoVA has Koreans and (upper to upper middle-class) Indians who generally have very high education levels.
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Originally Posted by JEB77
Perhaps in absolute numbers, but locally many of the close-in suburbs are more than holding their own as places for affluent families to live (North Arlington, other parts of relatively close-in Fairfax), and some of the expensive outer suburbs are lagging (for example, FCPS is now projecting substantial enrollment declines in many of the Great Falls-area schools). The picture may be different yet further out, but I'd submit that part of the movement toward the outer suburbs and exurbs is based on the comparative affordability of housing, and is not simply cultural self-selection at work.
North Arlington is not "the middle." It's arguably a part of the core. I would actually put Great Falls as a part of the middle today.
While both relative affordability and cultural selection play important roles in the massive movement toward exurbs and outer suburbs (here and elsewhere), what also plays a strong role is the relocation of work places to those areas. And, in what would undoubtedly hearten another poster here, the importation of "new urbanist" aesthetic and style and even conveniences to the exurbs has made the latter much more attractive to todays Bohemian-Bourgeoisie upper middle class families. If affordability alone were the dominant factor, areas to the south of DC would have seen a lot more growth than the western exurbs/outer suburbs.
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I basically agree with this as support for the prediction that, in the short to medium term, Annandale's Asian population is likely to decline and a lower-income, primarily Hispanic population is likely to increase. But the area's Hispanics, as well as many others, need places to live, so areas "in the middle" like Annandale have a very important role to play, even if they aren't the types of trendy places that capture the attention of the Richard Floridas or Joel Kotkins of the world. In fact, I saw some numbers recently that suggested that the three-year appreciation in RE in Annandale/20003 had been quite high compared to many parts of the DC region. The prospect that Korean retailers may also stick around in Annandale for years to come may also shore up the area (going back to the OP, while it's a bit run-down, it's still a retail/dining destination) in a way that can't be said for every aging suburb.
Sure, of course. But let's be realistic here. No one is chasing the down market Hispanic residents. Everyone -- businesses, tax collectors, etc. -- wants the affluent, well-educated residents. That's just the reality of life. As for Korean merchants, I already noticed that quite a few have relocated to Centreville. It's been a trickle so far, but I suspect the flow will grow stronger in the next several years.
BTW, speaking of Florida and Kotkin, check out this piece from Kotkin which briefly mentions Fairfax and which savages Florida's idea but more salient to our earlier discussions mentions this:
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Perhaps the best that can be said about the creative-class idea is that it follows a real, if overhyped, phenomenon: the movement of young, largely single, childless and sometimes gay people into urban neighborhoods. This Soho-ization—the transformation of older, often industrial urban areas into hip enclaves—is evident in scores of cities. It can legitimately can be credited for boosting real estate values from Williamsburg, Brooklyn, Wicker Park in Chicago and Belltown in Seattle to Portland’s Pearl District as well as much of San Francisco.
Yet this footprint of such “cool” districts that appeal to largely childless, young urbanistas in the core is far smaller in most cities than commonly reported. Between 2000 and 2010, notes demographer Wendell Cox, the urban core areas of the 51 largest metropolitan areas—within two miles of the city’s center—added a total of 206,000 residents. But the surrounding rings, between two and five miles from the core, actually lost 272,000. In contrast to those small gains and losses, the suburban areas—between 10 and 20 miles from the center —experienced a growth of roughly 15 million people.
Some gain for the core, similar loss for the middle and massive gains for the suburb/exurb.
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