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The point again is not over individual comps. Offhand, I am not aware of any area along any part of Cedar Lane that could be called comparable to Metro West.
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Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
Its a good bit larger (2000 sq feet) but its not only lived in, but its built in 2002 - it will be over 10 years old when the metrowest product is actually completed.
What is the overall life expectancy of a reasonably well-built, ten-year old towhnouse? What wonders of the place that existed in 2002 will have evaporated by 2012?
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Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
It lists for 589k. on a sq ft basis, that would be just under 450 k for the smaller THs.
It would be just over $426K (589 x 1448 ÷ 2000). Your Cedar Lane unit meanwhile works out to about $295 per sqft versus the $345 per sqft just down the road at Metro West.
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Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
Clearly a good bit more than what the THs in Fair Oaks are selling for, which makes sense given the price gradient. A 50k premium for convenience to metro, AND 10 years newer and never lived in, AND for the metrowest amenities?
As noted earlier, the prices asked are the prices asked because Pulte believes that it can sell all the units that it has at those prices. They believe that many people are willing to pay a premium of your $50K and perhaps much more for the product they have described and touted but not yet built. I am only trying to understand what the true level of that premium actually is.
I agree with BBD that Fair Oaks TH are not comparable to those in MetroWest. Even if one is working in Fair Oaks or the Gov't. Center area, a larger proportion of people will be working closer in toward DC or Tysons or wanting close access to the Metro, making it more appealing and driving the price higher.
According to 2009 county data, 53% of employed Fairfax County residents work in Fairfax County. 18% work in the District. 9% work in Arlington County. 4% work in Loudoun County.
The point again is that the Fair Lakes area is in many senses comparable to what Metro West will offer, EXCEPT for the much easier Metro access. The question is in determining what the level of premium being charged for that access might be.
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Originally Posted by michgc
No one has discussed the school district comparison, which, whether we like it or not affects values quite a bit.
Good point and a broad one. Developers are typically required to make contributions toward the costs of accommodating new demand for schools and those costs are passed on to buyers. Such costs not picked up by developers are of course ultimately passed on to taxpayers as a whole.
first off its not a 3 to 5 year difference. The metro west THs arent even being built yet - I am not sure when they will be delivered, but assume no deliveries before 2012 at the earliest. Thats compared to 2002 THs for the the FO THs.
Second systems that begin aging (and are probably still original in the circa 2000 houses) include roofs, heaters, etc, etc. The life expectancy of the house "bones" isnt really relevant.
As for the latest uptodate things, I dont know for sure, as I havent been in the market for post 2000 housing product. I know that things from kitchen layout to number of outlets can change - I ASSUME there are contemporary features that MetroWest THs will have that the FO ones will not, but absent actually looking at detailed listings, or better, walking through a model, its hard to say.
And having looked at listings, I pretty sure, whatever equivalencies of price there are between Great Falls and Mclean, and whatever distinctive qualities lower prices in South Arlington, its generally a fact that prices are lower for similar units in Fair Oaks than in the area of Vienna close to MetroWest, for units a good bit further from the metro than the farthest parts of metrowest. I can't of course say conclusively what drives that, though my strong belief its the further distance out I66. I do not think you can estimate the premium without taking that difference into account.
As for Lindenbrook, of course I cant comment on all the details of each house - but one thing I would note is that the houses in Lindenbrook generally have absurdly small and poorly placed windows in the upstairs back - even in houses backing on the playground/park. Typical (if a bit extreme) for the era - not something I see in newer TH's.
As for walking to the metro from Lindenbrook - the walk along blake is in fact rather long (its a huge circuit out of the way) The buses arent that frequent - you can spend more time in the howling wind waiting for one than walking - the best way is the trail through Blake park, if you are hardy - but thats not a good idea after dark - not because of crime - because unlit, its actually hard to find your way (though I suppose one could carry a flashlight).
As for globetrekkers, of course not everyone will want to walk. TOD is represents a very small proportion of the total housing in that price range in the metro area, and especially in NoVa. Its a niche market.
I don't think that TH's in Fair lakes is doable for people who work in DC.. unless you have flexible hours.
Quite so. Outside of traditional rush hour, access to Metro from the Fair Lakes area is relatively easy, but as a daily 9-to-5 commute option, it's not that good. Which is part what makes Fair Lakes a good alternative in trying to estimate what the Metro-access premium at Metro West is.
I agree with BBD that Fair Oaks TH are not comparable to those in MetroWest. Even if one is working in Fair Oaks or the Gov't. Center area, a larger proportion of people will be working closer in toward DC or Tysons or wanting close access to the Metro, making it more appealing and driving the price higher. No one has discussed the school district comparison, which, whether we like it or not affects values quite a bit. For MetroWest, the pyramid is likely to be Marshall Road/Jackson/Oakton. Not sure what the Fair Oaks schools are or how they compare to those in MetroWest, but I would think an address feeding into Oakton HS would be a pretty good draw.
The school pyramids strike me as pretty comparable. If you're in the Fair Oaks/Government Center area, you're assigned to Waples Mill, Navy, Eagle View or Greenbriar East ES. You're then assigned to Franklin MS or Lanier MS, and then to Oakton HS, Chantilly HS or Fairfax HS.
On balance, I think all the assigned schools for both areas are very solid, and that the school assignments probably wouldn't have as big an influence on a decision to live at Metro West vs. Fair Oaks than the greater proximity to Metro, Tysons and DC, as well as the appeal of a new transit-oriented development. What one sees in Arlington is that these attractions will pull people to a relatively convenient/walkable area even if some of the schools aren't quite considered the "top schools" in the jurisdiction (in particular, the schools in the Washington-Lee HS pyramid aren't quite as highly rated as those in the Yorktown HS pyramid, but the greatest growth in the ACPS enrollment in recent years has been in the W-L zone). Just my two cents.
Quite so. Outside of traditional rush hour, access to Metro from the Fair Lakes area is relatively easy, but as a daily 9-to-5 commute option, it's not that good. Which is part what makes Fair Lakes a good alternative in trying to estimate what the Metro-access premium at Metro West is.
not really - what I am trying to clarify is that there are two components to the "access premium" of metrowest. There is the general convenience of the area close to the Nutley entrance to I66 - and then there is the specific premium for easy walkability. Even the Lee highway side of metrowest will be more walkable than most properties within a mile or two of Vienna metro (at least the south side - I suppose the north side may be more walkable). The first component includes many factors - the bus ride or short drive to the metro, AND the short drive on I66 to the beltway (which eases the total commute to Tysons, for example). The second component is over and above that.
According to 2009 county data, 53% of employed Fairfax County residents work in Fairfax County. 18% work in the District. 9% work in Arlington County. 4% work in Loudoun County.
A very large number of those who work in FFX work in Tysons, which reinforces the price gradient, at least for the I66 corridor outside the beltway.
As an example there is now a TH on the market in Lindenbrook listed at 350k. Its renovated, but its 40 years old. Its about 2000 sq ft. Its an interior TH. Compare that to whats available in Fair Oaks. I think its clear that the area closer in commands a premium, quite apart from the kind of walkable metro access that Metrowest will have (since the walk from Lindenbrook is not as good, which I suspect is why few people do that walk)
theres another house nearby, on Miranda court that is less than 1400 sq feet, is 39 years old, is farther from the metro than Lindenbrook, and is listed at 366k.
Given THOSE comps, I think 500k for a 1450 sq foot TH, for delivery in 2012 at the earliest, and with far superior access to the metro for pedestrians, sounds to me on the conservative side.
The point again is not over individual comps. Offhand, I am not aware of any area along any part of Cedar Lane that could be called comparable to Metro West.
if we are trying to judge the "premium" for what metro west offers, the best way would seem to be to look for units within a mile or so, and of about the same age. But without the particular amenities (including an easy and attractive walk through the development to the metro) that metrowest offers. That was the best I could find.
Second, systems that begin aging (and are probably still original in the circa 2000 houses) include roofs, heaters, etc, etc. The life expectancy of the house "bones" isnt really relevant.
The life expectancy of the "bones" is what sets the outside limit of the unit as a whole. Once the "bones" start going, you've got a tear-down.
I'm familiar with depreciating systems, and to help with understanding the point being made, consider that depreciation runs from the moment the unit is completed, and that there is as a result a theoretical sinking fund into which even the original owner pays. Perhaps the average annual tab run up by that sinking fund is $5,000. If after ten years, the original owner has in fact spent nothing, he is going to lose something around $50K off the selling price he could have received had the unit been properly maintained. If the house has been well-maintained and is in prime operating condition, the owner will receive from a sale that $50K more than what he would have had he simply let the place go to seed. If you are the owner of a house and regardless of whether you are its original owner, you cannot escape the costs demanded by that sinking fund. You will pay them now or you will pay them later.
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Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
As for the latest uptodate things, I dont know for sure, as I havent been in the market for post 2000 housing product. I know that things from kitchen layout to number of outlets can change - I ASSUME there are contemporary features that MetroWest THs will have that the FO ones will not, but absent actually looking at detailed listings, or better, walking through a model, its hard to say.
I'm not sure what they would be. Tastes do not in my mind go through these sorts of fashion oscillations as have been suggested. Many buyers seem to focus on cosmetics, such as granite counter tops. Those are a non-issue. They can be swapped in and out almost at will. Things like the number of outlets will tend to vary according to the relatively static county code. The best way to get more outlets if you want them is to be there when the electrical crew is running romex through the studs. Piece of cake at that point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
And having looked at listings, I pretty sure, whatever equivalencies of price there are between Great Falls and Mclean, and whatever distinctive qualities lower prices in South Arlington, its generally a fact that prices are lower for similar units in Fair Oaks than in the area of Vienna close to MetroWest...
Yes, and it is the amount and logic of that premium that I have been trying to see estimated.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
I can't of course say conclusively what drives that, though my strong belief its the further distance out I66. I do not think you can estimate the premium without taking that difference into account.
The best thing you can do with 66 as a commuter route is to stay off it unless you have a reverse commute. For those with other than DC-centric lives, being further out 66 may actually be a plus.
The best thing you can do with 66 as a commuter route is to stay off it unless you have a reverse commute. For those with other than DC-centric lives, being further out 66 may actually be a plus.
for the very considerable number of people who live along the I66 corridor who commute to Tysons, being further out is no benefit, there are no good transit options, and the alternate auto routes are problematic, IIUC.
For those with jobs in Arlington, the situation is somewhat intermediate (there are usually transit options, but the lower cost of parking probably leads a larger number to drive than for the DC commuters)
also, my strong impression is that lots of folks who use the Orange Line to get downtown, drive along I66 to Vienna to get to the metro. I dont think the garages at the Vienna metro are mainly used by folk coming from north and south, as opposed to coming east on I66. The alternatives are to take the bus to the metro, which of course some do, but I think a lot of folks from Fair Oaks and elsewhere do not find convenient, or to drive an alternate route, which takes time as well.
Last edited by brooklynborndad; 06-15-2011 at 11:03 AM..
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