Why are house prices in Tolleson so low? (Phoenix, Chandler: renting, school)

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by artvandelay

I live in Tolleson and am currently trying to short-sell.

It hasn't been too bad crime-wise, but it's not great either. On my street, property and nuisance crimes were replaced with vacancies. The homes here were affordable, and in my opinion, affordability is related to lower classes of people.

Schools here are poor. I always intended to pay for private school, but those who don't care much about education may choose a location like Tolleson.

About 1/3 to 1/2 of my neighborhood is distressed in some way: vacant, foreclosure process, etc. The only buyers I've noticed are landlords or flippers. It really does take just a few years for a neighborhood to tank dramatically.

I like the access from this area, but if it doesn't come with a premium, the class of people can keep it down.

I wanted to say that. I think that is what much of the problem is. People are looking for bargains and see these low-priced houses and jump at them. You gotta keep in mind the kind of people that can get a 50K home. It's just about anyone with minimum wage jobs in the family. I think people ought to be looking at the most house they can afford not the cheapest thing they can find. The savings will mean years of regret. It happened to me when I first came here. I bought cheap in South Phoenix. Same house as over in Mesa for thousands less, I told myself. I learned the lesson that you get what you pay for in homes and neighborhoods.

For someone who is looking to stay maybe a couple years and then move up, maybe these super deals make sense. But when I see people asking about schools, or Canadians looking to retire in one in 5-10 years, I get really concerned that they are not going into this with eyes wide open.

[Java Jolt]

Originally Posted by TVofM

I went to the shopping center near Tolleson (Best buy, Borders, etc.) and the area seemed o.k.

I see online that the houses are going for pretty reasonable or better.

What's the deal? What's the downside to the Tolleson area that I didn't get to see??

Most of it is dumpy.

Tolleson is much like a smaller version of Avondale, north of I-10 isn't too bad but south of there is sketchy. The problem is there isn't much happening in Tolleson even in the better part.

If you want a better suburban location in the southwestern valley area try northern Avondale, Goodyear, or Litchfield Park.

[KatrynS]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I wanted to say that. I think that is what much of the problem is. People are looking for bargains and see these low-priced houses and jump at them. You gotta keep in mind the kind of people that can get a 50K home. It's just about anyone with minimum wage jobs in the family. I think people ought to be looking at the most house they can afford not the cheapest thing they can find. The savings will mean years of regret. It happened to me when I first came here. I bought cheap in South Phoenix. Same house as over in Mesa for thousands less, I told myself. I learned the lesson that you get what you pay for in homes and neighborhoods.

For someone who is looking to stay maybe a couple years and then move up, maybe these super deals make sense. But when I see people asking about schools, or Canadians looking to retire in one in 5-10 years, I get really concerned that they are not going into this with eyes wide open.

Although I agree you have to look at how a neighborhood may be shifting due to the collapse of the housing bubble, I don't agree with the "ought to be looking at the most house they can afford." IMO that's EXACTLY what got us in this mess. That and the [effective] deregulation of mortgages. People fear big gov't when they should fear big business.

People wanted to buy the most they could afford, so went to the bank and said, "how much can I afford?" The banks loaned more than reasonable since they were just going to sell the mortgage to someone else anyways so what did they care?

Of course, I'm over-simplifying, but perhaps my point is that to go for the "cheapest" or "the most you can afford" are too simplistic. If you are buying into a neighborhood built during the boom and is now full of foreclosures, you should expect the neighborhood demographics will shift. If you find a stable neighborhood with a few foreclosures, you can probably get a good deal. If you want to "look for all you can afford", al you can afford should be what you could afford if all reasonably possible bad stuff happens, not just the rosy-colored "I can afford this if we never have a medical bill, or lose a job, my kids never take a music lesson or participate in an after-school activity, I keep getting 10% raises every year, the house never needs maintenance, and the cost of utilities and food drop!"

I know a lot of people that bought "all they could afford" and managed to tread water for 8 years. But now that the lack of maintenance is starting to show and the mom's hours are cut at work so she pulls the kids out of private school, they-re $100K under-water on their house, and the parents are fighting in the front yard over money....aren't they glad they bought all they could afford? I'm sure those kids would rather have a peaceful home than live in a McMansion with stressed out parents.

[Ponderosa]

Well, I'm not changing my point of view which is buy the best neighborhood you can afford. Skimp on the car or some other depreciating asset or a vacation. I think the word "afford" is self-explanatory but maybe people need to be more honest with themselves about it. Of course, they should not overreach and be overly optimistic about what the future will bring. I think your examples are of people who bought places they could NOT afford.

[TVofM]

Is Avondale not full of foreclosed houses going for rock-bottom $$ ??

[sh9730]

Ponderosa -

I understood what you were saying perfectly. I agree 100%. I did make that decision back when I bought in '08 (not here to debate whether buying then was a good or bad move). I work from home so commute is not an issue for me and I can basically live almost anywhere, yet I still made the decision that although Casa Grande was about 10-15% more to purchase a new build than QC or Maricopa were even at that time, that the fact that there was infrastructure already in place in CG (mall, hospital, shopping, freeway access etc) that I would spend the extra money to stay here rather than buy more house in the less expensive areas.

I think even though CG has definetely gone through its share of problems even since 08, it has been LESS impacted than QC and Maricopa. We are also starting to see some signs of life coming back here lately which is positive (new commercial building taking place, empty storefronts filling up, couple of churches being built, our new Police HQ and a new Fire Station going up - even a new Ashley and Roomstore furniture stores have opened up in the last few months).

So, just buying "cheap (or less expensive if you prefer)" is not always best.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by sh9730

Ponderosa -

I understood what you were saying perfectly. I agree 100%. I did make that decision back when I bought in '08 (not here to debate whether buying then was a good or bad move). I work from home so commute is not an issue for me and I can basically live almost anywhere, yet I still made the decision that although Casa Grande was about 10-15% more to purchase a new build than QC or Maricopa were even at that time, that the fact that there was infrastructure already in place in CG (mall, hospital, shopping, freeway access etc) that I would spend the extra money to stay here rather than buy more house in the less expensive areas.

I think even though CG has definetely gone through its share of problems even since 08, it has been LESS impacted than QC and Maricopa. We are also starting to see some signs of life coming back here lately which is positive (new commercial building taking place, empty storefronts filling up, couple of churches being built, our new Police HQ and a new Fire Station going up - even a new Ashley and Roomstore furniture stores have opened up in the last few months).

So, just buying "cheap (or less expensive if you prefer)" is not always best.

I wouldn't put Casa Grande in the same league as Tolleson. Casa Grande is not adjacent to any bad areas, so I don't see the decline spreading there as quickly, if at all. It's just my guess though. My crystal ball is no better than anyone else's.

[TVofM]

Originally Posted by sh9730

Ponderosa -

I understood what you were saying perfectly. I agree 100%. I did make that decision back when I bought in '08 (not here to debate whether buying then was a good or bad move). I work from home so commute is not an issue for me and I can basically live almost anywhere, yet I still made the decision that although Casa Grande was about 10-15% more to purchase a new build than QC or Maricopa were even at that time, that the fact that there was infrastructure already in place in CG (mall, hospital, shopping, freeway access etc) that I would spend the extra money to stay here rather than buy more house in the less expensive areas.

I think even though CG has definetely gone through its share of problems even since 08, it has been LESS impacted than QC and Maricopa. We are also starting to see some signs of life coming back here lately which is positive (new commercial building taking place, empty storefronts filling up, couple of churches being built, our new Police HQ and a new Fire Station going up - even a new Ashley and Roomstore furniture stores have opened up in the last few months).

So, just buying "cheap (or less expensive if you prefer)" is not always best.

What is "QC" ??

(I'm not from AZ, I was out there visiting a while back)

[sh9730]

TV, sorry QC is Queen Creek, and I actually the specific area I am talking about is the Pinal County portion which has now been renamed San Tan Valley.

[crapture]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

This was mostly south of I-10.

99% of Tolleson is south of I-10. I love when people say things to the effect of 'if you want to live in Tolleson, make sure it's north of I-10'. A misnomer, as there aren't any houses in Tolleson north of I-10.