Honestly, when will the Phoenix real estate market bottom out? (Mesa: rentals, mortgage)

[GoGoLucky]

or has it already?

i see builders been humble now, long gone are those: waiting-in-line, pick-a-raffle to get a lot times.

has it really bottomed out?

will early next year be a better time to get a new build?

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by GoGoLucky

or has it already?

i see builders been humble now, long gone are those: waiting-in-line, pick-a-raffle to get a lot times.

has it really bottomed out?

will early next year be a better time to get a new build?

My opinion only here: late 2008 earliest or more likely 2009-10.

I swear we are seeing a repeat of the mess of 1988-90-------which took over 10 years to recover from.

In all fairness; this last housing 'boom' was a little more than a legal pyramid scheme------those who cashed out early (2005) did well with many others (including the banks/mortgage companies) holding the bag.

Wages certainly did not keep up.

[GoGoLucky]

i cant wait to see it back when it was $115K for a "standard 3/2" new build...

[ivanabacowboy]

ArizonaBear, I work in commercial real estate financing (bank) and I think you are spot on. Overall those in our industry are saying Late 08 maybe early 09 before at least a turn to positive and activity picking up for consecutive quarters. Probably later in 09 maybe 10 before a semblance of "stability" (whatever that is lol!). Since we finance the BUILDERS, the "public side" at least on new construction will trail a few months behind.

That said, dont look for a return to the 04/05 "BOOM" again. Things imho will be a bit more subdued this time for a while. And I suspicion out here you will not see the $115K 3/2 regardless...

That said, some markets are in position to recover much faster than others. Some markets that never "boomed" arent really "busting" now and are still doing fairly well. (We do business across the US.) I give Arizona and Florida (parts) potential for quicker recovery than places like Michigan and Ohio.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by ivanabacowboy

ArizonaBear, I work in commercial real estate financing (bank) and I think you are spot on. Overall those in our industry are saying Late 08 maybe early 09 before at least a turn to positive and activity picking up for consecutive quarters. Probably later in 09 maybe 10 before a semblance of "stability" (whatever that is lol!). Since we finance the BUILDERS, the "public side" at least on new construction will trail a few months behind.

That said, dont look for a return to the 04/05 "BOOM" again. Things imho will be a bit more subdued this time for a while. And I suspicion out here you will not see the $115K 3/2 regardless...

That said, some markets are in position to recover much faster than others. Some markets that never "boomed" arent really "busting" now and are still doing fairly well. (We do business across the US.) I give Arizona and Florida (parts) potential for quicker recovery than places like Michigan and Ohio.

Add in my theory that we seem to have two housing markets here in the Phx area:

#1: Scottsdale S of Shea, Paradise Valley, N Tempe near ASU as well as the 'Arcadia' area of Phoenix may drop 10-15% in value, some of which will be due to lack of appreciation courtesy of inflation ($$$ numbers will hold somewhat steady but the actual values will drop). In other words; affluent areas near Sky Harbor.

#2: Buckeye, parts of Gilbert, Queen Creek, Maricopa, Peoria etc. will get slammed-------hard.

Anthem, Glendale, Mesa et al: split the difference between the two above scenarios.

[JasonS]

What do you think about Surprise? I am just about to close on a house,i know i picked a very bad time to buy.

[ibarrio]

Jason. Hope you are buying long term for your own family needs and for not a get quick money maker.

If you can afford it and plan in living in it and got a decent price you should be ok. I plan on living in my Surprise home for a while.

Unlike Maricopa, Buckeye, and Queen Creek the plans for Surprise are already in motion...plus we are closer to the city then those communities.

[ArizonaBear]

And; ironically enough, Surprise's proximity to the Sun Cities may help it------why I say that I am not sure.

[JasonS]

I do plan to live there for as long as i can handle the heat =)

Im not buying it to make money but i dont want to lose tons if i ever do sell. I have 3 rentals in CA i bought a few years ago that have doubled in price.

The house i bought is in Surprise farms,the current price on their webiste is the same as it was back in march when i bought it but i know the incentives have changed. But last time i checked the incentives were maybe $5000 better then what i got. the total price of my house is 435k, im putting down almost 40% so i dont think i will ever be upside down on my mortgage well at least i hope they dont drop that bad lol


Im set to close in 2 weeks. I know they have some big promotion that started today according to a post card i recieved in the mail. I will need to call later today to see what the new incentives are.

Do you think if they would give me a better price on my house if these new incentives are huge?

I am also building a pool on the property that is already started and i gave 7k to the home builder and 5k to the pool builder already,so i dont have much leverage to say i will back out unless i want to lose the 12k.

[ibarrio]

That what I was thinking as well. Sun City is a buffer...A buffer from a lot of things and a major reason why Surprise is prob. one of the safest areas in Phoenix.