Phx metro 2014 housing predictions (Peoria, Taylor: new home, neighborhood, wedding)

[grassfeeder]

How do you see the lower FHA pricing taking effect this year play into things? Having it down to $271k I believe really limits most people to conventional loans only - which for some aren't the best option, or an option at all.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by Salam5

I'm a potential homebuyer moving to the Phoenix area in February. I'll post my thoughts here -- it might give another view to this discussion.

I've been watching and learning about the market since about November and signed up for listings via a couple agents. I'm looking to buy a 4 bdm 2.5 bath in the 150-250K range and have a family, so like many, I've been concentrating in Gilbert and Chandler. But am basically keeping tabs on all areas of the market, including those further out. I'm hoping to pay cash for a home in the 150-200K range.

My impression is prices in Gilbert and Chandler are inflated some and that a lot of people saw the market go up and are listing their homes to meet that demand. If I had to buy today I'd probably look west -- Avondale, Surprise, Peoria -- where homes seem to be listing closer to their true market value.

In any event, since the first of the year 80% of the listings coming across are price reductions. I'm assuming these are people that really are trying to move and want their home to stand out among those who are trying to catch the wave of the rise in prices that's been happening since 2011 or so. My feeling is the longer I wait in 2014 the better price I'll get.

I dont watch Chandler or Gilbert, and your impressions may be correct there, but my gut tells me that isn't a winning strategy - especially for a primary residence that you intend to keep for a while. Chandler & Gilbert are both "favored" areas in the valley- they will appreciate first & drop in value last amongst most valley cities. December/January/February *always* post the lowest prices of the year in the valley - and if you look back through the history of this board, you'll see "doom and gloom" posts in January & irrational exhuberance postings in September..

Looking for a house in the valley in the summer is an ordeal - even if the economy is tanked, you'll still have lots of competition in that price range from investors with more money than brains. If you can find a house you like, in an area you like & lock in a 4%~ish mortgage at current pricing, you arent going to get hurt. If everybody only bought homes based on income/appreciation potential, we would all live in multi-family housing.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

I dont watch Chandler or Gilbert, and your impressions may be correct there, but my gut tells me that isn't a winning strategy - especially for a primary residence that you intend to keep for a while. Chandler & Gilbert are both "favored" areas in the valley- they will appreciate first & drop in value last amongst most valley cities. December/January/February *always* post the lowest prices of the year in the valley - and if you look back through the history of this board, you'll see "doom and gloom" posts in January & irrational exhuberance postings in September..

Looking for a house in the valley in the summer is an ordeal - even if the economy is tanked, you'll still have lots of competition in that price range from investors with more money than brains. If you can find a house you like, in an area you like & lock in a 4%~ish mortgage at current pricing, you arent going to get hurt. If everybody only bought homes based on income/appreciation potential, we would all live in multi-family housing.

Sound advice!

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by grassfeeder

How do you see the lower FHA pricing taking effect this year play into things? Having it down to $271k I believe really limits most people to conventional loans only - which for some aren't the best option, or an option at all.

the median home value in phoenix is $200k, so you can't say "most" people and $271k in the same breath. $271k would buy 10 decent & livable homes in my old hometown, as it would in *most* of the country. - there isn't (and never was) a sane reason to inflate the loan limits for the whole country based on a half-dozen overpriced cities. If you're looking at $500k homes, you should have the income & assets to put $100k down, or rent until you can - or just lower your expectations a bit & you can put 3% down on a "tiny" $270k home. There's a societal benefit to helping someone get into a $50k home. There is no societal benefit to helping well-paid people get their first mansion with no money down.

[grassfeeder]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

the median home value in phoenix is $200k, so you can't say "most" people and $271k in the same breath. $271k would buy 10 decent & livable homes in my old hometown, as it would in *most* of the country. - there isn't (and never was) a sane reason to inflate the loan limits for the whole country based on a half-dozen overpriced cities. If you're looking at $500k homes, you should have the income & assets to put $100k down, or rent until you can - or just lower your expectations a bit & you can put 3% down on a "tiny" $270k home. There's a societal benefit to helping someone get into a $50k home. There is no societal benefit to helping well-paid people get their first mansion with no money down.

True, and I agree. I don't currently live in PHX - I'm in Portland, Oregon and we've been looking to make the move. Just seems like everything I look at is $275 and above for what I would want and up here $275 doesn't buy your squat. I'm still learning to adjust my mindset to local PHX pricing.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by grassfeeder

True, and I agree. I don't currently live in PHX - I'm in Portland, Oregon and we've been looking to make the move. Just seems like everything I look at is $275 and above for what I would want and up here $275 doesn't buy your squat. I'm still learning to adjust my mindset to local PHX pricing.

You really need to come here and look around for yourself in person - there are nice pockets of decent & affordable housing all around the valley - one thing you may want to try if you haven't yet is a "radius search" using the MLS - many times searching by zip-codes or city names will exclude some great subdivisions that are just across the street, or around the corner from your favorite areas. If you find your "ideal" location, you can search "within one mile", or two, or five miles to find prospects that might be just outside a zip-code or particular city.

[grassfeeder]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

You really need to come here and look around for yourself in person - there are nice pockets of decent & affordable housing all around the valley - one thing you may want to try if you haven't yet is a "radius search" using the MLS - many times searching by zip-codes or city names will exclude some great subdivisions that are just across the street, or around the corner from your favorite areas. If you find your "ideal" location, you can search "within one mile", or two, or five miles to find prospects that might be just outside a zip-code or particular city.

good advice. We've visited before as we have family in Peoria (Vistancia) and we'll be down again next month to explore other areas.

One glaring issue is that a lot of what I have see would be total interior gut jobs or I'm paying for someone else's renovation that would end up being a gut. I do design work as a trade so I'm over OCD and quite picky on that front. The typical PHX style doesn't jive well with my mid-century modern tastes.

This is perhaps why new builds have been appealing, at least then I can get pretty close to what I'd like from the get-go - at least within the color scheme.

We'll be visiting areas of Gilbert (Power Ranch) - Goodyear (Estrella - I really need to feel that distance - Litchfield Park and up towards Anthem.

Sadly, I am limited to FHA due to a Ch 7 BK stemmed from medical - nothing to do with irresponsible spending and make a decent $165k annual. However, just because I may make a good living - doesn't mean I feel the need to spend at my top dollar.

Rock and a hard place.....

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by grassfeeder

good advice. We've visited before as we have family in Peoria (Vistancia) and we'll be down again next month to explore other areas.

One glaring issue is that a lot of what I have see would be total interior gut jobs or I'm paying for someone else's renovation that would end up being a gut. I do design work as a trade so I'm over OCD and quite picky on that front. The typical PHX style doesn't jive well with my mid-century modern tastes.

This is perhaps why new builds have been appealing, at least then I can get pretty close to what I'd like from the get-go - at least within the color scheme.

We'll be visiting areas of Gilbert (Power Ranch) - Goodyear (Estrella - I really need to feel that distance - Litchfield Park and up towards Anthem.

Sadly, I am limited to FHA due to a Ch 7 BK stemmed from medical - nothing to do with irresponsible spending and make a decent $165k annual. However, just because I may make a good living - doesn't mean I feel the need to spend at my top dollar.

Rock and a hard place.....

Not to go back and forth too much - but once again, your perception of rehab costs may be influenced by where you're coming from. I can gut & rehab a 3 bedroom home (including both bathrooms and a kitchen) for less than my parents were quoted to build a nice deck back in Michigan. We have a lot of skilled laborers here & they compete against each other & do side jobs - that's a major bonus for those that might want a new looking home in an older area.. You can spend as much as you want in a rehab, but it doesn't have to cost a lot. Inexpensive tradespeople may be one of our biggest (hidden) assets.

[grassfeeder]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

Not to go back and forth too much - but once again, your perception of rehab costs may be influenced by where you're coming from. I can gut & rehab a 3 bedroom home (including both bathrooms and a kitchen) for less than my parents were quoted to build a nice deck back in Michigan. We have a lot of skilled laborers here & they compete against each other & do side jobs - that's a major bonus for those that might want a new looking home in an older area.. You can spend as much as you want in a rehab, but it doesn't have to cost a lot. Inexpensive tradespeople may be one of our biggest (hidden) assets.

You're 100% correct. Which is why I love these forums. They've been a wealth of information about the local area and expectations within.

[autism360]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

You basically said the same in the last post.

So you think builders are controlling the new housing inventory to raise the prices. Hum........... What do you think would happen if I wanted to buy 200 new homes? Will the builders refuse to sell them to me? You know the answer, they will build me 200 new homes. So it seems they are not controlling inventory!

If there is so much "pent-up demand",then why aren't they buying and why is the inventory rising daily? I've got tunnel vision so help me out.

Next topic: People who let their homes go are currently renting from investors. When those former owners buy a home by the thousands, the investors may not have anyone to rent them to. Hence, they will sell and the same amount of people will be in the Valley. there needs to be an influx. It's at a record low. Hence, the builders are not building. To me at least, your logic is flawed.

So you think builders are controlling the new housing inventory to raise the prices. Hum........... What do you think would happen if I wanted to buy 200 new homes? Will the builders refuse to sell them to me? You know the answer, they will build me 200 new homes. So it seems they are not controlling inventory!

You just revealed you have no understanding of how new home builders work, I have worked with new home builders in the past and currently am aware they are are only releasing a certain amount of lots each month to be sold. The answer to your question is no you cannot tell them you want 200 homes,they will not sell them to you for many reasons.
Go ahead call a new home builder and tell them you want to buy 200 homes and listen to them roll with laughter at you. Let me know which one you call and I will call them as well to verify your next post.