How much slower is our Phoenix RE market Right Now? (Tucson: for sale, real estate)

[Potential_Landlord]

They call it in "tortoise mode", how cute I see less for sale signs in my area compared to the spring, but there also seems very little buying pressure going on. Lowest sales volume since 2008, anybody awake here? How serious do we have see the part of slower job and population growths here?
"Part of that stems from slow job gains and population growth. Wilcox shows Arizona’s monthly job growth averaging 2.1 percent so far this year. That’s better than during the recession, but down from 2.8 percent in 2013, 2.6 percent in 2012 and no where near the pre-recession growth. Slower job growth stunts population gains — long key to real estate and economic growth in Phoenix and Tucson."
Phoenix housing market in tortoise mode, slows across the board - Phoenix Business Journal

[Lovehound]

I found the market doing well enough that I bought 4 SFR properties this year between February and May, and have them all rented and making positive cash flow. I bought in nice HOAs east of downtown.

[PhxMan500]

The slower job growth and slower population increase seems to be a non-story - a page filler, IMHO.

ARMLS says that "home prices have been stable, remaining flat for the last 12 months." They expect a slight price decline in August. It is a bit of a strange situation that prices are expected to fall a little, while new inventory is decreasing.

They heyday for flippers and builders seems to be coming to an end, for now. Now appears to be a good time to buy for the long-term property owners.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by PhxMan500

The slower job growth and slower population increase seems to be a non-story - a page filler, IMHO.

ARMLS says that "home prices have been stable, remaining flat for the last 12 months." They expect a slight price decline in August. It is a bit of a strange situation that prices are expected to fall a little, while new inventory is decreasing.

They heyday for flippers and builders seems to be coming to an end, for now. Now appears to be a good time to buy for the long-term property owners.

It just seems that after frantic moves in the last decade or more we may enter a period of quiet with little price changes. Same seems to be true for mortgage rates too. I agree -with the prices I'm seeing it's still worth to buy for most people in Phoenix. Still quite a bit cheaper than renting. What are the trends for mortgage availability? Is it still very hard to get a mortgage? - Another anecdote: a friend of my wife's was laid off from Wells Fargo mortgage unit in Phoenix. She said mortgage applications are way down. Looks like less people are looking to buy.

[AlohaFriday]

I saw something saying the RE market is pretty stagnant nationwide.

It seems like real estate helped drive the last economic boon, and coming back out of the recession, the job and wage growth just isn't there. Not just in Phoenix, but nationwide.

I know flippers who got out of the business and are now doing other things, pawn shops, etc., because higher house prices were limiting profit.

While bad news for flippers, it seems good overall. I think a steady market is better than runaway growth. In Phoenix, the market slowed as soon as investors began stepping away. So much of our economy is dependent on construction, so I hope things pick up, though.

[grmi66]

I just saw a builder breaking ground for a new subdivision out here in Avondale. Maybe they know something we don't know. Houses in my neck of the woods seem to linger on the market for at least 2-3 months.

[sunluv]

Almost a slow as molasses...hope this helps.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by grmi66

I just saw a builder breaking ground for a new subdivision out here in Avondale. Maybe they know something we don't know. Houses in my neck of the woods seem to linger on the market for at least 2-3 months.

OK it seems far-fetched but then again... let me say it anyways. In Germany you can now get 30 year fixed financing for 2.5% (and the German 10 year treasury notes, so-called "Bunds" yield a whopping 1%). Who says it could not happen here? Let's say you could get financing for 2.5% so you can buy a 200k house (not too shabby in many valley areas) with 10k down for about $750 monthly (albeit plus PMI and property taxes). Still that beats renting by quite a bit. So maybe the valley builders know that rates are going to fall further and have the homes ready when affordability is even better than now.

[BestintheWest]

In my area, far southeast, nothing is selling and the majority of listings are expiring.
today current listings in the entire valley are 26,702, up about 1500 from mid July.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by BestintheWest

In my area, far southeast, nothing is selling and the majority of listings are expiring.
today current listings in the entire valley are 26,702, up about 1500 from mid July.

If I look at the deptofnumbers / housingtracker listing numbers they show valley listings as down from April. Not sure how exact they are. Year-over-year inventory has definitively grown.
Asking Prices and Inventory for Homes in Phoenix Arizona | Department of Numbers



Phoenix Asking Price and Inventory History
Date Single Family & Condo
Inventory 25th Percentile
Asking Price Median
Asking Price 75th Percentile
Asking Price
August 2014 22,235 $179,925 $269,900 $414,948
July 2014 23,110 $179,975 $269,723 $412,475
June 2014 23,934 $180,000 $272,880 $421,155
May 2014 24,783 $179,575 $272,470 $430,696
April 2014 25,160 $175,225 $269,100 $429,675