Any predictions on Phx area home values next 12 months? (Phoenix: sale, 2014)

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by JGMotorsport64

And to attach to this.

Despite a recession, which we seem due for at some point, I don't see Phoenix getting klobbered like it did last time. Growth has been modest, job growth has been steady and consistent and housing prices, although a little high in some areas, aren't approaching levels they came close to the last time. We seem to be doing pretty decent economically and a lot of our growth lately has been the right kind of growth, especially in our urban trio (Phx, Tempe, Scottsdale).

I think we've all learned a lesson.

The most important thing IMO is that we're not in the oil patch or otherwise commodity-based here. The next recession around 2018 or so will be mostly about commodities IMO and the real estate markets from Alaska thru Texas and of course Canada will be in crash-danger. This in turn is another plus for us as we are consumers of energy rather than producers.

[John7777]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

The most important thing IMO is that we're not in the oil patch or otherwise commodity-based here. The next recession around 2018 or so will be mostly about commodities IMO and the real estate markets from Alaska thru Texas and of course Canada will be in crash-danger. This in turn is another plus for us as we are consumers of energy rather than producers.

I hate to break the news, but we're in a recession right now. The government statistics are lies.

[stevek64]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

The most important thing IMO is that we're not in the oil patch or otherwise commodity-based here. The next recession around 2018 or so will be mostly about commodities IMO and the real estate markets from Alaska thru Texas and of course Canada will be in crash-danger. This in turn is another plus for us as we are consumers of energy rather than producers.

If only it were that simple.

2 Ways Plunging Oil Prices Could Threaten the U.S. Economy -- The Motley Fool

[Greeniis78]

Originally Posted by John7777

I hate to break the news, but we're in a recession right now. The government statistics are lies.

John thats what I said on one of my previous post on this blog. Lol..And Im sure someone thought I was crazy. I agree with you and as I repeat it just baffels me how the true reality is kept from us. Dont know how far we are in but we are in a downfall. And the government down plays it for all its worth.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by John7777

I hate to break the news, but we're in a recession right now. The government statistics are lies.

You have an interesting point of view. Albeit a year old, read http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/20...ame-them/?_r=0

"American adults found that 57 percent still think the economy is in recession.
It’s not hard to see why. People don’t take this as a technical economic research question; they take it to mean, “Is the economy good?” And for much of America, despite years of modest gross domestic product growth and strong stock market gains, the economy isn’t good."

From a technical perspective we are NOT in a recession. No-way-no-how. We all judge things with our own experiences. As far as I am concerned, the economy feels pretty darn good. From 2004 to 2009, my luxury item/sales business plummeted 8X. The good news is I am fiscally conservative. When I was printing $$'s, I didn't p_iss it away so I weathered the storm with ease. Now I am up 5X from 2013 and paying too much in taxes again. But I am still far short of the bubble era sales volume and I don't see that happening for me again. Nor do I care to go back to working 110 hours a week. But make no mistake; the rich are richer (which isn't a good thing). Most wealthy people I sell to are spending more carefully.

Re: PHX Real Estate. I use to study it with intensity but I no longer follow it very closely. I stil know it well enough to understand we are NOT in a bubble. I could come-up with scenarios where PHX housing goes stagnate or drops some. But no way is it going to go up fast and I just don't see it plummeting anytime soon.

[borninsac]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

You have an interesting point of view. Albeit a year old, read http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/20...ame-them/?_r=0

"American adults found that 57 percent still think the economy is in recession.
It’s not hard to see why. People don’t take this as a technical economic research question; they take it to mean, “Is the economy good?” And for much of America, despite years of modest gross domestic product growth and strong stock market gains, the economy isn’t good."

From a technical perspective we are NOT in a recession. No-way-no-how. We all judge things with our own experiences. As far as I am concerned, the economy feels pretty darn good. From 2004 to 2009, my luxury item/sales business plummeted 8X. The good news is I am fiscally conservative. When I was printing $$'s, I didn't p_iss it away so I weathered the storm with ease. Now I am up 5X from 2013 and paying too much in taxes again. But I am still far short of the bubble era sales volume and I don't see that happening for me again. Nor do I care to go back to working 110 hours a week. But make no mistake; the rich are richer (which isn't a good thing). Most wealthy people I sell to are spending more carefully.

Re: PHX Real Estate. I use to study it with intensity but I no longer follow it very closely. I stil know it well enough to understand we are NOT in a bubble. I could come-up with scenarios where PHX housing goes stagnate or drops some. But no way is it going to go up fast and I just don't see it plummeting anytime soon.

Thank you for your insights, both the personal finance and real estate perspectives. With regard to the latter, you'll never go wrong living below your means. Let's say one lives 25% below their means and then hard times arrive resulting in a 25% decline in whatever you want to call economic such as personal earnings. That person who has lived below their means to the tune of 25% less is now even with regard to his/her relationship between the cost of living and earnings. With a little deflation, he/she might be slightly ahead.

I also enjoy what others (presumably natives) have contributed in their crystal ball forecasts. As an outsider who may one day live part time and own Phoenix real estate, these insights are helpful. For those coming from the outside in areas with higher real estate prices like California, for example, high is relative so buying high in Phoenix if you've sold high in California still may be a satisfactory outcome particularly if the purchase is for a long term hold and personal use.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by stevek64

If only it were that simple.

2 Ways Plunging Oil Prices Could Threaten the U.S. Economy -- The Motley Fool

Sure the commodity bust is a problem in the oil patch or similar areas but in Phoenix we are only consuming and not producing. So for Phoenix and AZ it's a plus. For Alaska it's a disaster. Of course the biggest winner is Europe where almost all energy & many other commodities are imported. But Phoenix comes out ahead big time too. China could build even more ghost cities (LOL) but that type of pretend economy will see the biggest bust ever from maybe 2017 on.
Not sure how copper-based our economy still is state-wide but I think it's neglect-able, certainly in the Phoenix metro area.

[autism360]

Once the obama /jarrett regime is out of office the housing industry and many other industries will explode, especially in AZ where obama has focused on hurting AZ to punish our last governor and sheriff Joe.

[DavidBilly]

While looking for a new home I noticed there are relatively few homes built from 2008 to 2012/3(recession)
And now there are many new homes all over the valley. This being said if you are selling a home
that was built from say 1990 on you have to compete with NEW homes. New homes are more energy
efficient, are ALL new, and have all new stuff. Buyers will gravitate to the new homes for obvious reasons.
If you are selling now your home has to stand out(school, upgrades, location???).
This is just my opinion take it for what it is worth..

[JGMotorsport64]

Originally Posted by DavidBilly

While looking for a new home I noticed there are relatively few homes built from 2008 to 2012/3(recession)
And now there are many new homes all over the valley. This being said if you are selling a home
that was built from say 1990 on you have to compete with NEW homes. New homes are more energy
efficient, are ALL new, and have all new stuff. Buyers will gravitate to the new homes for obvious reasons.
If you are selling now your home has to stand out(school, upgrades, location???).
This is just my opinion take it for what it is worth..

There are three rules in Real Estate

1. Location
2. Location
3. Location.