So Where's El Niño? (Phoenix: school, landlord, university)

[JGMotorsport64]

Originally Posted by JustMike77

I'm confused. We've been told time and time again with all this global warming nonsense that climatologists couldn't possibly be wrong. So, if they were so wrong about El Nino which is happening NOW, how can we trust what they say about temperatures 50 or 100 years ago.

Because one looks forward, and one looks backward.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by JustMike77

I'm confused. We've been told time and time again with all this global warming nonsense that climatologists couldn't possibly be wrong. So, if they were so wrong about El Nino which is happening NOW, how can we trust what they say about temperatures 50 or 100 years ago.

If anything it is a confirmation for Global Warming now that not even a strong ElNino can break the pattern of drier and hotter weather in Arizona. How long until we become un-inhabitable?
The next test will be if we get the usually drier and warmer effects of the coming La Nina... if yes it is another clue. How long to wait until we take actions?

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

I'm sorry, but you are so way off that I think you could be a shoo in at the NWS (HA HA). December was slightly cooler than average, but the total rainfall for the month was 0.21 and the normal is 0.88. January was slightly cooler and wetter than average, but February has been one of the warmest on record, and the total precipitation is 0.00 (normal is 0.92). How has that been colder and wetter than average???

Even the NWS underestimates the strength of Global Warming apparently (just like you btw). Global Warming overrides the effects of El Nino and continues to deflate precipitation and inflate temperatures in Arizona. How long until you become concerned?

[JGMotorsport64]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Even the NWS underestimates the strength of Global Warming apparently (just like you btw). Global Warming overrides the effects of El Nino and continues to deflate precipitation and inflate temperatures in Arizona. How long until you become concerned?

I've also read that warmer Ocean temps in the Pacific would be beneficial (in terms of water coming down) for the opposite reason, given that El Nino is caused by a shift in Ocean temp moving from East to West. The Warmer area of the ocean is usually near Australia/Japan and moves closer to Hawaii during El Nino giving us big storms. Warmer Pacific Ocean=More Frequent and harsher El Nino seasons.




http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journ...imate2100.html

Sorry I can't link the paid version on here but here's a model on what actually would happen with Global Warming, supposedly.

That said, this drought isn't going away anytime soon.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by sloguy1496

Its not unusual to have a dry, warm spell during an El Nino Winter.

A week or two of dry, warm weather is not so unusual, but an entire month is. Even the warmest February on record (1991) had high temperatures close to 80 degrees practically all month long, but no records were set, and there was at least some rain. I have never seen the kind of mid to late spring weather consistently in February like we had this year ... EVER!

Originally Posted by sloguy1496

Looks like the pattern changes next week. March is normally the wettest month of the year. Winter isn't over yet, so I'm still holding out hope for some big late season rains to push the Southwest above average and push fire season off.

I'm also hoping that we'll get some much needed precipitation in March because it has happened in past years when much of the winter was rather mundane. That's the main reason why March is one of the wettest months of the year on average ... however, I'm definitely not counting on it. As of now, the forecast looks to be much the same into next week. I'd like to know where you're getting your info that the pattern is going to change. According to the forecast discussion, only slightly cooler temperatures are expected with no precipitation.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT COOLING WOULD BE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH FOR
FRIDAY...THOUGH EVEN THE LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES
WOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 80S FRIDAY/SATURDAY...STILL ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT SUNDAY WITH A
DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH. RAW AND POST-PROCESSED POP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE EXTREMELY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESSENTIALLY ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

National Weather Service Text Product Display

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Even the NWS underestimates the strength of Global Warming apparently (just like you btw). Global Warming overrides the effects of El Nino and continues to deflate precipitation and inflate temperatures in Arizona. How long until you become concerned?

I never said there wasn't global warming, but I think it's hyped up beyond reason just like this El Niño has been. Even if there is global warming, it's most likely a natural cycle rather than a man made one. Regardless of what it is, what can we do about it anyway???

[chaparrito]

Reading this thread one would imagine El Niño only affects the SW U.S. Ask the folks in the NW, MW and SE if they think this El Niño has been "over-hyped".
Most of AZ's wettest years haven't been El Niño years anyhow. Nobody can predict what will happen in an El Niño, only what might.

[ScottsdaleMark]

Valley Native, the latest update has some more info on the approaching low. But the discussion itself shows their heavy reliance on models, which use the past to predict the future. I guess models are kind of like analytics in sports ... numbers tell us a lot but sometimes you have to see the prospect in person to get the complete picture of whether they really can play or not.

"SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE REGIONAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A LARGE PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...THICK AT TIMES...AS WELL AS LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...
BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY...MODELS HAVE FOR SOME TIME BEEN FORECASTING A STRONG PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...HOWEVER
DAY TO DAY MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE INSPIRED LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ITS
TIMING...DEPTH...AND INTENSITY. FOR EXAMPLE...RECENT ENSEMBLE
SPREADS...CENTERED ON LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HAVE EVEN HAD A FEW
MEMBERS FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OVER CENTRAL BAJA CA. SINCE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT RESOLUTE AT THIS POINT...NOT MUCH FORECAST DETAIL
REGARDING PRECIP WILL BE GIVEN...EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS."

To me this kind of sounds like, well, we're waiting to see what the computer models tell us to think. Which is fairly understandable, I suppose, as it'd be hard to subjectively and individually predict what a storm system thousands of miles away is going to do in 10 days time.

Perhaps if they stuck to shorter-range forecasts, at which I think they excel, they wouldn't take so much grief from posters such as Valley Native. However, even though their long-range forecasts are often little more than a probabilistic guess, I appreciate that they make the effort.

Maybe they need to start listing a "confidence percentage" on all forecasts so people don't take as gospel that which is just a guess and so people don't blow off something that is a near-certainty.

EDIT -- I also think that all forecasters in general need to get away from doing these absolute forecasts that can be encapsulated in two numbers and a graphic/emoticon of a sun or a cloud or a rainy cloud or so forth, on the Weather app on someone's phone. It's too simplistic. People may want that easy quick answer but it ends up being misleading more than a few days out.

I think the NWS and other forecasters need to get back to greater use of the old weather charts with High, Lows and fronts clearly marked. Tell people why the weather is supposed to change and they'll better understand what happens regardless of what the numbers-only forecasts tell them.

[Ponderosa]

Model (GFS) output of precip (total) from 0600Z over the next 16 days:

Model Analyses and Guidance

Most of it is later in the period and therefore less confident. Still, there is a bit of hope.

[ajonesaz]

March looks rainy and even much cooler than February - lets hope for it. 90 degrees in February is way too much.

They blew those below average temperature projections.

However, I was in the Sacramento area at the beginning of February and it is amazing what El Nino has done over there. Every thing is bright green and looks better than it has in several years. They needed the rain more than we did.

[PhoenixSomeday]

I grew up in Silicon Valley and was in middle school when El niño was coming through in 1992-1993. I do not have fond memories of all that rain. My middle school was a mile away from home and I had to walk to it. I had no umbrella and no hooded jacket (and my mom couldn't/wouldn't buy either). It felt like it rained every single day during that winter for hours on end and that's how I was walking in it - completely soaked everyday to/from school and having to peel my jeans off when I got home like a damned fruit rollup.

There was a creek that ran next to my school, It must have been about 10-15 feet deep. It's always been bone dry, or maybe 10-20% full when rain comes through. During that El niño winter, it was full nearly to the top every day. It looked like one of those torrential flows where if you fell in it you were probably done.

All this talk of El niño coming through AZ had me thinking that's what it was going to be like.