Now that Phoenix is #1 again for growth, will this continue? (Mesa: 2015, cheap home)

[azriverfan.]

As all of you are aware, Phoenix metro just overtook Houston metro for #1. This is really good news, and I'm not sure we would have ever regained the #1 spot again. Now that we are #1 again, do you see the Valley remaining in the top 1 or 2 position for approximately 10 years? What are the economic indicators that suggest we can retain this growth?


The Census Bureau says Arizona's Maricopa County has replaced Texas' Harris County as the county with the nation's highest annual population growth. Maricopa County gained more than 81,000 people between July 1, 2015, and July 1, 2016, an average daily increase of 222 people. Harris County had an increase of nearly 57,000, or about 155 per day on average.

[locolife]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

As all of you are aware, Phoenix metro just overtook Houston metro for #1. This is really good news, and I'm not sure we would have ever regained the #1 spot again. Now that we are #1 again, do you see the Valley remaining in the top 1 or 2 position for approximately 10 years? What are the economic indicators that suggest we can retain this growth?


The Census Bureau says Arizona's Maricopa County has replaced Texas' Harris County as the county with the nation's highest annual population growth. Maricopa County gained more than 81,000 people between July 1, 2015, and July 1, 2016, an average daily increase of 222 people. Harris County had an increase of nearly 57,000, or about 155 per day on average.

When we are adding jobs, then yes people come. When we are not adding jobs the growth slows way down.

But regarding your estimates, Phoenix is not number 1 by any stretch of the imagination. Houston is made up of more than just Harris County and the Houston region added significantly more people then Phoenix did. DFW was number 1, then Houston, Atlanta, LA and then PHoenix.

- Greater Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex (CSA): + 148,413
- Greater Houston (CSA): + 126,610
- Greater Atlanta (CSA): + 99,328
- Greater Los Angeles (CSA): + 96,038
- Greater Phoenix (MSA): + 93,680

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by locolife

When we are adding jobs, then yes people come. When we are not adding jobs the growth slows way down.

But regarding your estimates, Phoenix is not number 1 by any stretch of the imagination. Houston is made up of more than just Harris County and the Houston region added significantly more people then Phoenix did. DFW was number 1, then Houston, Atlanta, LA and then PHoenix.

- Greater Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex (CSA): + 148,413
- Greater Houston (CSA): + 126,610
- Greater Atlanta (CSA): + 99,328
- Greater Los Angeles (CSA): + 96,038
- Greater Phoenix (MSA): + 93,680

Still to be in that conversation is impressive. To only gain 3 K less people than the LA is impressive.

Also keep in mind that our economic resurgence is in its infancy. Imagine next years numbers. Thank goodness, they are building the South Mountain freeway.

But I agree with your implicationl. Where are the jobs? I certainly hope this growth isn't fueled by the "cheap homes" effect ie people with no skills or education who move here to work retail because the cost of living is low. That being said, this seems much different than early 2000's. It seems like a lot of our growth is fueled by quality job so it's "quality growth"

There is a certain romanticism associated with a tourist warm weather city like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami, L.A. etc. If Miami had more land, you would see more growth there. In a sense, people have always wanted to move to Phoenix but the jobs were not there. Once more jobs particularly high paying jobs come here, you will see more people move here than those cities.

[locolife]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

Still to be in that conversation is impressive. To only gain 3 K less people than the LA is impressive.

Also keep in mind that our economic resurgence is in its infancy. Imagine next years numbers. Thank goodness, they are building the South Mountain freeway.

But I agree with your implicationl. Where are the jobs? I certainly hope this growth isn't fueled by the "cheap homes" effect ie people with no skills or education who move here to work retail because the cost of living is low. That being said, this seems much different than early 2000's. It seems like a lot of our growth is fueled by quality job so it's "quality growth"

We have been adding jobs and along with that has been the population growth. There's a direct correlation between jobs and population growth here, in 2016 we ranked in the top 10 for job growth and the top 10 for population growth.

Our housing is still affordable, for now, which combined with the QOL Phoenix offers makes us ripe to compete for both jobs and employees. Especially when you consider what you can get here versus places like SF, Seattle, LA, etc.. I don't think the jobs have been low quality but I still am not satisfied with our lack of investment in education, Arizona needs to fix this quick!

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/n...tates-and.html

[locolife]

Here's more about the jobs we have been adding and just how fast the growth has been in the technology sector.

Tech sector leading the way for Phoenix job growth

The news was no fluke as others began to notice the trend for job creation here. Kiplinger magazine ranked Arizona as the state with the second-fastest projected job growth rate in the country for 2016 at 3.2 percent. Only Idaho was higher with 3.5 percent.

And where were those jobs taking shape? Of course, look to the tech community. In June, Forbes named the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale area as the “City Winning the Battle for Information Jobs” outside of San Francisco and Silicon Valley. (OK, we’ll excuse the fact that the distinction mentioned singular “City.”) Growth in the sector was 7.51 percent for 2015.
The research done for Forbes by NewGeography.com noted the action started earlier than just last year. The information workforce here has expanded by 39.29 percent since 2010, the third highest increase of any metropolitan area. Software employment has grown 28.8 percent since then while tech employment overall has expanded 78 percent since 2000.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/b...ob-growth.html

[locolife]

CBRE noticed the trend as well

Phoenix No.2 on CBRE

CBRE also analyzed the Tech-Thirty markets according to high-tech industry job growth. San Francisco topped the rankings for the fifth consecutive year; its high-tech job base has grown 47.0 percent between 2013 and 2015, while average asking rents increased by 22.7 percent from Q2 2014 and Q2 2016. Eighteen markets outperformed the U.S. average of 13.7 percent job growth in high-tech software/services, with Phoenix (44.5 percent), Austin (33.3 percent), Charlotte (33.2 percent), and Indianapolis (27.9 percent) rounding out the top five.

[azriverfan.]

Agreed about education! People in the tech industry tend to be highly education and want their children to have access to quality schools.

One thing we need to see more of besides quality public is more quality private schools. I've seen these other private schools and they are just not the same as a real private school like PCDS/Brophy/Xavier etc ie offering full facilities (gyms, performing arts center, labs, computer labs, full sized library). Not these half @ss private schools that have the private school label but are really just classrooms with no real facilities or support structure. A city this big should have more REAL private schools to choose from.

For many highly educated high wage earners, public school is not even an option for them. They want to send their kids to private school and there aren't many options here outside of the ones in Phoenix. That is a disappointment. If you look at cities like Dallas and Houston, they have top notch "REAL" private schools all over their cities. We should have a PCDS/Brophy type of school in every region of the Valley so that people have options if they don't want charter or regular public schools.

It seems like the best private schools are all in Phoenix (Phoenix Country Day, Brophy, Xavier). I would like to see a quality private school like that in the east valley so that people don't have to drive to Phoenix to send their children to a true prep school.

If you put a school like Phoenix Country Day in Goodyear or Chandler for example, that would definitely help that area attract more jobs as engineers and other high wage earners would pay to send their kids there.

[AZLiam]

Originally Posted by locolife

When we are adding jobs, then yes people come. When we are not adding jobs the growth slows way down.

But regarding your estimates, Phoenix is not number 1 by any stretch of the imagination. Houston is made up of more than just Harris County and the Houston region added significantly more people then Phoenix did. DFW was number 1, then Houston, Atlanta, LA and then PHoenix.

- Greater Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex (CSA): + 148,413
- Greater Houston (CSA): + 126,610
- Greater Atlanta (CSA): + 99,328
- Greater Los Angeles (CSA): + 96,038
- Greater Phoenix (MSA): + 93,680

If speaking specifically about MSA's, Phoenix ranked third behind Dallas and Houston:

Dallas - 143,435
Houston - 125,005
Phoenix - 93,680
Atlanta - 90,650


...Los Angeles - 41,619 (Riverside/San Bernardino really bumped up the LA CSA numbers)

[locolife]

Originally Posted by AZLiam

If speaking specifically about MSA's, Phoenix ranked third behind Dallas and Houston:

Dallas - 143,435
Houston - 125,005
Phoenix - 93,680
Atlanta - 90,650


...Los Angeles - 41,619 (Riverside/San Bernardino really bumped up the LA CSA numbers)

CSA makes more sense to me being that is representative of the consolidated MSAs that make up a region based on how connected they are. And even at the MSA level we're not #1 and that's fine by me.

[chellechic]

There is Basis and Great Hearts Schools in Goodyear, my kids attend and they are great! There is also more Montessori schools coming to the area.