Let's go Bucs!!! (Pittsburgh: building, trading, expensive)

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by sskink

I'm confident they'll go hard after Martin with an aggressive offer. All that cheap pitching isn't worth anything without a decent catcher. There's at least $20 million coming off the books in 2015, not including Martin, so they can easily bump him to $12 mill/year deal with expected big arb raises for Walker, Pedro, Harrison, Melancon & Watson and still be below this year's $78 mill payroll, leaving room for a 1b acquisition and a back-end reliever.

I'd expect either a 3/$36 or 4/$42 with a team option and high buyout on the final year of the latter.

That won't stop somebody like the Dodgers making a ridiculously obscene offer to Martin no other team in their right mind would match. And if that happens, I'm sure there will be complaints. But the Bucs could also go the QO route. I don't see Martin refusing that if it happens.

Hope you're right, and it's what they should do but I don't see it happening.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by sskink

I don't see any rush/need to extend Walker at all. He's still under control for a couple more years and he'll make a ton in arbitration. I'd wait until next year when I'd move him back to his more natural position of 3b, as Hanson will take over 2b. Pedro either goes to 1b or gets unloaded for a pitcher. I have zero use for either Gaby or Ike at this point - not that Hurdle is doing either of them a favor by using them in situations counter to the concept of the platoon they're supposed to be. Why does Gaby have more ABs vs. RHP than LHP? I'd rather see Vanimal at bat than watch Ike flail at a LHP (.269 OPS!!!). Hell, Bucs would be better off teaching Tabata to play 1b.

Forgot to address this. I disagree. Sign Walker long term while he still wants to be here. Time ticks everyday on this team. Cole, Polanco, Cutch, and anybody of any significance is going to stay here the minimum amount of time unless they fall on their face. I don't see them paying Martin so they may as well pay a quality player like Walker, now.

[sskink]

Originally Posted by erieguy

Forgot to address this. I disagree. Sign Walker long term while he still wants to be here. Time ticks everyday on this team. Cole, Polanco, Cutch, and anybody of any significance is going to stay here the minimum amount of time unless they fall on their face. I don't see them paying Martin so they may as well pay a quality player like Walker, now.

I'll stick with my original statement. There's no need. Hanson will come up to take 2b at some point next year, if not at the start.

Walker is only arguably in top 10 at his position, and in the bottom half of that 10. Certainly not top 5. He's missed more than 100 PAs most seasons due to injury. His last/only full season was 2011. He's valuable right now as the Bucs don't have options at 2b, but once Hanson comes up, Walker transitions to 3b (or 1b).

Lots of yinzers want to see the local boy resigned long term. With the way the Pirates are being built for the next 5-6 years, there's simply no need to do anything with Walker right now. He'll get paid in arb. The boy will probably make $8 mill in arb this offseason and $10+ in his walk year. Whatever happens with him, his future is not at 2b, so he's going to need to up his power numbers as a corner IF to justify a long-term contract with any team.

Regarding Martin, this will be the one time the Bucs surprise even you.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by sskink

Regarding Martin, this will be the one time the Bucs surprise even you.

Hope you're right but I wouldn't bet any money on it

[Gee Whiz]

The Bucs at center of trade talks. The trading deadline is July 31 at high midnight.
Bold predictions as Trade Deadline nears | MLB.com: News Click on the vid.

[erieguy]

Every year the Bucs find a way to inject their name into big name possible trades and every year its lip service.

Time is ticking, however, and if this team is really going to go anywhere in the postseason, it needs to make big moves to win and the time is now.

[Gee Whiz]

I hate to give up any of the top prospects named in the vid. Will Alvarez get us anything? He should because he is still relatively young and has potential to be forty homer a year guy. I just have seen enough of him. People want to trade guys like Sanchez and a couple scrubs for a starting first basemen. It does not work that way.

[erieguy]

Prospects? When will now ever get here?

The major players on the team now will be gone in the next 1-4 years.

People think that a bunch of scrubs are worth something to other teams, but again, not reality. Alvarez will likely go somewhere else and shine. Somebody will pay for him.

At some point one has to go all-in and trust your future picks combined with the MLB talent you have. Playing cheap and conservative will never get this team anywhere deep into the postseason.

[JimboPGH]

Originally Posted by Gee Whiz

I hate to give up any of the top prospects named in the vid. Will Alvarez get us anything? He should because he is still relatively young and has potential to be forty homer a year guy. I just have seen enough of him. People want to trade guys like Sanchez and a couple scrubs for a starting first basemen. It does not work that way.

Perhaps we can trade Alvarez in the offseason to replenish the farm system after we make a deal Lester or Price?

I'd love for us to land Price, but I'm sure the Rays will drive a hard bargain (probably two top pitching prospects AND a top outfielder) and with all offseason to move him, they have no real urgency to make a deal.

Lester doesn't thrill me as much since he'd be a two month (hopefully three month) rental, but Huntington seems to have a good working relationship with the Bo Sox front office and might be able to pull off something reasonable. If we could get him (and possibly a reliever) for Austin Meadows and a B-grade pitcher or two (Brandon Cumpton/Adrian Sampson), it'd be tempting. If it would take an elite outfield prospect AND an elite pitching prospect (i.e. Tailon or Glasnow), I think we'd have to pass.

Glasnow and Bell are the two guys I'd hate to see us lose in any deal. Glasnow has the highest ceiling of anyone in the system and projects to be a top ten prospect next year. Bell has elite power that isn't easy to find and could very well be our starting first baseman in 2016, if not next summer.

Really, the best bet would be to stick to a low leverage deal to sure up the bullpen without giving up any elite talent. As usual, Tim Williams from Pirates Prospects is the voice of reason.

[sskink]

Originally Posted by JimboPGH

Perhaps we can trade Alvarez in the offseason to replenish the farm system after we make a deal Lester or Price?

I'd love for us to land Price, but I'm sure the Rays will drive a hard bargain (probably two top pitching prospects AND a top outfielder) and with all offseason to move him, they have no real urgency to make a deal.

Lester doesn't thrill me as much since he'd be a two month (hopefully three month) rental, but Huntington seems to have a good working relationship with the Bo Sox front office and might be able to pull off something reasonable. If we could get him (and possibly a reliever) for Austin Meadows and a B-grade pitcher or two (Brandon Cumpton/Adrian Sampson), it'd be hard to say no. If it would take an elite outfield prospect AND an elite pitching prospect (i.e. Tailon or Glasnow), I think we'd have to pass.

Glasnow and Bell are the two guys I'd hate to see us lose in any deal. Glasnow has the highest ceiling of anyone in the system and projects to be a top ten prospect next year. Bell has elite power that isn't easy to find and could very well be our starting first baseman in 2016.

If the Bucs are going to pull the trigger on Price or Lester, it's a no brainer IMO that they go for Price because he'll be here in 2015. You're probably giving up two prospects for the last two months of this year whichever way you go. Price's additional cost is one prospect for next year. When you look at it that way, it becomes a non-issue.

That said, even if Price is unhittably outstanding, what's he worth in the final two months? Two incremental wins max, most likely. You have a better chance of getting 2+ wins from an everyday player. Especially a 3b who's not going to commit an error every other game.

Besides, the Rays aren't moving Price. They still think they're in it, and from the way the AL East has changed leaders all season, they're probably right. They're closer to a WC berth than the Reds are.

If you're going to make a deal for a frontline starter, go to Philly, get Hamels. Yes Hamels is expensive but you'd have him for a few years and you can always trade him. Besides, RAJ is probably the dumbest GM in baseball, so fleece him for cash back plus weaker prospects than what the Rays or BoSox would require.

What are the other ways the Bucs can get those two wins:

- Don't blow 14 saves in the 2nd half like they did in the first half. League average is 12 blown saves. Bucs have 15. Just being average would have Bucs in first place in NL Central. Hide Frieri, break his glove hand or something. Go get Andrew Miller or someone similar to shorten the game to six innings.
- Liriano pitches like 2013 Liriano. Bucs were 7-8 in his starts pre-ASG. If he goes 7-5 in final 12 starts, there you go. If his last start is an indication of what he could do, he'll be better than 7-5.
- Play the best lineup every day. Harrison should be in the lineup every day until he stops being 2014 Harrison. Michael Martinez & Brent Morel should not be in the lineup. Ever.