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So we are hoping a political system that hasn’t changed in decades somehow sees the light and does right by the city and it’s residents. That is a lot of blind faith put into a system that hasn’t worked. So I guess you keep going on and hoping it will someday change.
I don't think mediocrity characterizes my experience on Pittsburgh. I've prospered. It's been very good to me. I see plenty of threats from politics, but they are all because of national politics, not local.
Inverted treasury yields, market plunging on every whiff of economic weakness, job creation weakening, constant bickering over monetary policy, trade wars increasing
if interest rates get cut back you can almost certainly count on a further stretch of the bull market. As of now the vix is near its 10 year lows which is showing there is very little fear of a bear market.
this probably isn't the place to get into a lengthy discussion on the topic, but a lot of people have been trying to call the top of this run for at least the past 4 years and each time we end up rallying up and making new highs. I wouldn't be so quick to be short right now.
if interest rates get cut back you can almost certainly count on a further stretch of the bull market. As of now the vix is near its 10 year lows which is showing there is very little fear of a bear market.
this probably isn't the place to get into a lengthy discussion on the topic, but a lot of people have been trying to call the top of this run for at least the past 4 years and each time we end up rallying up and making new highs. I wouldn't be so quick to be short right now.
One of the ways I entertain myself is to read the headlines on CNBC. Although I take no interest in the market, the contradicting headlines and statements made daily are laughable. What used to be standard things to judge the health of the economy have been replaced by trying to gauge reality off the tweets of known liars. If the market is having a bad day, someone just tweets that "talks are progressing" or that "deal almost done" there is a rally (where i am sure people are using it to profit, and it's probably those tweeting), and then the next day it all falters again.
But I digress, back to the dead horse of a topic on Pittsburgh's population.
Psychologically I'm happy as long as the city's population doesn't dip below 300,000. With our latest 2018 estimate Cincinnati pulled ahead of us and is now the larger city. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are similar in many ways; however, their metro area is growing steadily and their city is growing modestly while our metro area is stagnant, and our city is still losing population. We should really study Cincinnati more to see why they're growing while we're in decline.
Oh, and there are plenty on this sub-forum who like what Pittsburgh is on its way to become---leaner, meaner, and more "efficient" (i.e. an inversion of pricing out the poor and working-class to our generally undesirable suburbs while attracting more affluent and educated transplants into the city in droves). I personally don't like this, as I want our city to have a place for anyone and everyone who wants to live here.
Pittsburgh seems to be like this each year (using imaginary numbers for easier math):
Again, this isn't exact by any means, but as long as our death rate is outpacing our birthrate, and as long as wealthier singles and DINKs are replacing larger lower-income households, then we'll continue to decline by at least a few hundred residents annually. When will we hit our "floor"? I don't know. I'm hoping our floor will be 300,000. I was hoping Erie's floor would be 100,000, but they're well below that now and still dropping. I was hoping Johnstown's floor would be 20,000, but they're well below that now and still dropping. Pittsburgh's "floor" might end up being 275,000 for all we know, and that would make us barely bigger than Buffalo. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
To those saying this is a "good" thing, won't we lose Congressional representation and funding via housing a progressively lower and lower population?
1. They can find a few million dollars in money for quatar, wow and one jet airlines. All of which are now defunct and money isn’t recovered. Yet it is a struggle to find money for a few million dollars in affordable housing.
2. They can find around a billion dollars to dig a tunnel under the river and extend the T one mile to Heinz Field. Yet they cannot find a billion dollars to do a better T system to the airport or communities needing transportation into the city.
3. They will raise taxes to pay for two stadiums voted down by the public costing a combined 2 billion dollars. Yet they cannot find two billion dollars to fix the water systems and redo PWSA.
4. An airport ranked one of the best in the nation now needs a total redo in the eyes of local officials. The redo will not benefit airlines as there will be new fees but no new ramps or access for plane arrival. The public and businesses that use the airport will be punished with higher fees for ticketing and parking. Making Pittsburgh more costly to do business. However this two billion dollar modernization is needed just because we retired debt and want to modernize the airport. How many other things could be paid for with this money?
I know I know you can’t take airport money to fund this or that. If anything it shows the flaw of where money is spent and where it really should be spent in the region. The fact the airport has all of this cash to spend freely while the drinking water system is failing shows the disconnect between state and local officials and public policy. And the public really is not holding them accountable either. Or the 6 billion dollars they can find to give amazon, but can’t find to fix the needs of the region.
And people wonder why businesses avoid or leave the area and in migration to the region is non existent. Pittsburgh wants to be a big city but it operates as a small town with the same people, policy and ideas getting recycled over and over.
I don’t know where the bottom will be with population decline, but I do know thriving cities don’t do what is mentioned above. The public policy has had a negative effect on basically everything including making the area desirable to move here. And yes 275,000 seems more realistic than changing the above any time soon.
Population decline will stop once they take care of the needs instead of the wants....
Inverted treasury yields, market plunging on every whiff of economic weakness, job creation weakening, constant bickering over monetary policy, trade wars increasing
First hurricane of the season this weekend, massive flooding yearly on various coasts, rising costs of insurance...trends like this are not sustainable, regardless how pretty the view.
I'm not going to start a global warming topic but dont throw out a few disasters out of the norm to show a trend. I'm not saying there is no climate change but natural events like hurricanes are cyclical and there is little evidence of new trends. I have worked in disaster management for almost 15 years. A storm now is not odd, we have even had hurricanes in Jan before. When things become regular sure make a point but nothing has pointed to a continued trend. Worst storm season really for east coast was back 2005. To say we have not seen things like this before means you just dont look back enough. 1933 was one of the worst years ever.
I'm not going to argue against what you are saying in terms of needs being more important than wants but the one point you miss is some of this spending is an investment with returns (which may or may not work out). Its like a business, you could just throw all of your money into increasing staff pay which might have a little impact on your business or you could speculate to provide a better or innovative product to your customer that in the long run would generate better ongoing returns (and also likely allow for staff increases). Might not work but the benefits might outweigh the risks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pittsburghaccuweather
1. They can find a few million dollars in money for quatar, wow and one jet airlines. All of which are now defunct and money isn’t recovered. Yet it is a struggle to find money for a few million dollars in affordable housing.
2. They can find around a billion dollars to dig a tunnel under the river and extend the T one mile to Heinz Field. Yet they cannot find a billion dollars to do a better T system to the airport or communities needing transportation into the city.
3. They will raise taxes to pay for two stadiums voted down by the public costing a combined 2 billion dollars. Yet they cannot find two billion dollars to fix the water systems and redo PWSA.
4. An airport ranked one of the best in the nation now needs a total redo in the eyes of local officials. The redo will not benefit airlines as there will be new fees but no new ramps or access for plane arrival. The public and businesses that use the airport will be punished with higher fees for ticketing and parking. Making Pittsburgh more costly to do business. However this two billion dollar modernization is needed just because we retired debt and want to modernize the airport. How many other things could be paid for with this money?
I know I know you can’t take airport money to fund this or that. If anything it shows the flaw of where money is spent and where it really should be spent in the region. The fact the airport has all of this cash to spend freely while the drinking water system is failing shows the disconnect between state and local officials and public policy. And the public really is not holding them accountable either. Or the 6 billion dollars they can find to give amazon, but can’t find to fix the needs of the region.
And people wonder why businesses avoid or leave the area and in migration to the region is non existent. Pittsburgh wants to be a big city but it operates as a small town with the same people, policy and ideas getting recycled over and over.
I don’t know where the bottom will be with population decline, but I do know thriving cities don’t do what is mentioned above. The public policy has had a negative effect on basically everything including making the area desirable to move here. And yes 275,000 seems more realistic than changing the above any time soon.
Population decline will stop once they take care of the needs instead of the wants....
I'm not going to start a global warming topic but dont throw out a few disasters out of the norm to show a trend. I'm not saying there is no climate change but natural events like hurricanes are cyclical and there is little evidence of new trends. I have worked in disaster management for almost 15 years. A storm now is not odd, we have even had hurricanes in Jan before. When things become regular sure make a point but nothing has pointed to a continued trend. Worst storm season really for east coast was back 2005. To say we have not seen things like this before means you just dont look back enough. 1933 was one of the worst years ever.
I don’t want this to be a climate change topic either, but I feel I’ve seen too many trend lines to believe that it isnt happening, so I make plans accordingly. I believe it even if others dispute.
if interest rates get cut back you can almost certainly count on a further stretch of the bull market. As of now the vix is near its 10 year lows which is showing there is very little fear of a bear market.
this probably isn't the place to get into a lengthy discussion on the topic, but a lot of people have been trying to call the top of this run for at least the past 4 years and each time we end up rallying up and making new highs. I wouldn't be so quick to be short right now.
Interest rates are at 2.5% and the economy is depending on a cut? If that doesn’t show weakness, I don’t know what does. Our economy is addicted to virtually free money. This is not a sign of strength. But I digress, Pittsburgh’s problems are decades in the making and while I think we’re turning a corner, it doesn’t mean substantial population growth is in our future.
Interest rates are at 2.5% and the economy is depending on a cut? If that doesn’t show weakness, I don’t know what does. Our economy is addicted to virtually free money. This is not a sign of strength. But I digress, Pittsburgh’s problems are decades in the making and while I think we’re turning a corner, it doesn’t mean substantial population growth is in our future.
I didn't say the economy was strong or not due for correction, but unfortunately the markets don't care what you or I think. Im just saying that calling a top or the next recession is very difficult. there have been countless people calling the top since before the dow hit 20k. Oh and what do we see today, dow hits all new high yet again of 27,092.
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