Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The key to future economic growth and full employment is education and that means the NEA has to get out of the way.
First point: Any repetitive task type of job can be automated. That is the type illegals and rural Americans are most likely to be capable of. The illegals will accept Fair Market Value, the American won't saying, "My great-great-great grandpa got away with a 6th grade education and made 2.5 times minimum wage, why can't I?".
Second Point: I agree , education will determine which Americans win, but it will not solve the problem of far too few people needed for 21st century jobs. I anticipate, no matter what the government does, future layoff waves, bigger than the 8 million axed in 2008-09. And like that wave, those jobs will NEVER come back.
Now if we could only have another million or so people give up looking for work the rate would drop a whole precentage point. Add another million part time and temporary seasonal jobs and it would drop another point.
This recession is doing gangbusters.
It boils down to we simply no longer need all able-bodied/able mind adults in our workforce..permanently.
That is absolutely correct.
Like I said way back in 2007, everyone needs to get used to "house-husbands" because there isn't going to be enough jobs, and everyone needs to learn how to do less with less. [/quote]
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn
4 years ago, 8 million were axed. It should scare all of us that corps went on, without skipping a beat, nor missing out on all functions being covered.
Why would it? It's a global economy. You must think in those terms now.
To paraphrase George Taylor: "The Global Economy is boundless. It squashes an American worker's ego. I feel lonely."
Aping...
Mircea
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapperJohn
Our problems are structural and the result of years of bad policies and programs as well as demographics.
Housing prices are rebounding in some areas. They never really fell in my neighborhood. But there are plenty of areas they are still grossly overvalued.
The issues are far more complex than most people realize.
That is absolutely true, too.
The problem I see is most people erroneously believe the "housing bubble" caused the crisis. It did not. Structurally, the issues are declining value of the US Dollar, increasing competition for global resources, BRIC's rapid nation-building programs, declining wages, declining household income and [permanent] loss of jobs....
....and all of those things were taking place before the housing bubble, so it is absurd to say that housing will impact anything.
So long as those things to continue to take place....and they will...for a very long time....there is no happy ending here.
Like I said way back in 2007, everyone needs to get used to "house-husbands" because there isn't going to be enough jobs, and everyone needs to learn how to do less with less. [
Why would it? It's a global economy. You must think in those terms now.
To paraphrase George Taylor: "The Global Economy is boundless. It squashes an American worker's ego. I feel lonely."
Aping...
Mircea
That is absolutely true, too.
The problem I see is most people erroneously believe the "housing bubble" caused the crisis. It did not. Structurally, the issues are declining value of the US Dollar, increasing competition for global resources, BRIC's rapid nation-building programs, declining wages, declining household income and [permanent] loss of jobs....
....and all of those things were taking place before the housing bubble, so it is absurd to say that housing will impact anything.
So long as those things to continue to take place....and they will...for a very long time....there is no happy ending here.
Structurally...
Mircea
SOME of what you say is true - particularly in regards to the "Global competition" issue.
The dollar however is NOT "declining". The Dollar Index bounces between 90 and 70 and is now roughly where it was 10 years ago.
Our problems are structural and the result of years of bad policies and programs as well as demographics.
Housing prices are rebounding in some areas. They never really fell in my neighborhood. But there are plenty of areas they are still grossly overvalued.
The issues are far more complex than most people realize.
Well, it is complex but it has nothing to do with structural unemployment.
A few days ago, I read an authoritative-sounding paper in The American Economic Review, one of the leading journals in the field, arguing at length that the nation’s high unemployment rate had deep structural roots and wasn’t amenable to any quick solution. The author’s diagnosis was that the U.S. economy just wasn’t flexible enough to cope with rapid technological change. The paper was especially critical of programs like unemployment insurance, which it argued actually hurt workers because they reduced the incentive to adjust.
Oh, I forgot to tell you that the paper in question was published in June 1939. Just a few months later, World War II broke out, and the United States, though not yet at war itself, began a large military buildup, finally providing fiscal stimulus on a scale commensurate with the depth of the slump. And, in the two years after that article about the impossibility of rapid job creation was published, U.S. nonfarm employment rose 20 percent, the equivalent of creating 26 million jobs today. So much for structural unemployment. It's all about demand.
Well, it is complex but it has nothing to do with structural unemployment.
A few days ago, I read an authoritative-sounding paper in The American Economic Review, one of the leading journals in the field, arguing at length that the nation’s high unemployment rate had deep structural roots and wasn’t amenable to any quick solution. The author’s diagnosis was that the U.S. economy just wasn’t flexible enough to cope with rapid technological change. The paper was especially critical of programs like unemployment insurance, which it argued actually hurt workers because they reduced the incentive to adjust.
Oh, I forgot to tell you that the paper in question was published in June 1939. Just a few months later, World War II broke out, and the United States, though not yet at war itself, began a large military buildup, finally providing fiscal stimulus on a scale commensurate with the depth of the slump. And, in the two years after that article about the impossibility of rapid job creation was published, U.S. nonfarm employment rose 20 percent, the equivalent of creating 26 million jobs today. So much for structural unemployment. It's all about demand.
Except for the fact what took Remington Arms a 5 figure headcount to produce in 1942, could be produced with under 500 employees now.
Except for the fact what took Remington Arms a 5 figure headcount to produce in 1942, could be produced with under 500 employees now.
An argument often placed against computerization. Sure, a business may need fewer workers, but this situation also ties to businesses providing the tools, creating a chain of events that resides outside the roof of a single factory. THIS is why we need to recognize that some jobs aren't coming back but others we can work towards, but not without accordingly educated and skilled workforce, however (an area we're bound to lose as well, as we have been for a few decades now).
BTW, I have been driving past two trucking offices in Grand Prairie, Texas, and have noticed them "Wanted" sign on two big banners just outside. They have been hanging out there for at least a month now. You'd think that in an economy struggling with jobs, there will be takers? Or may be, there just aren't enough qualified technicians to handle diesel engines?
An argument often placed against computerization. Sure, a business may need fewer workers, but this situation also ties to businesses providing the tools, creating a chain of events that resides outside the roof of a single factory. THIS is why we need to recognize that some jobs aren't coming back but others we can work towards, but not without accordingly educated and skilled workforce, however (an area we're bound to lose as well, as we have been for a few decades now).?
Robots and other efficiency gains will occur, but it does not mean at the macro level, we will not end up in deep trouble. We simply do not need all able bodied/able minded people working. Ever again.
Yes, new occupations will arise, but they will not take up all the excess from occupations lost.
Well, it is complex but it has nothing to do with structural unemployment.
A few days ago, I read an authoritative-sounding paper in The American Economic Review, one of the leading journals in the field, arguing at length that the nation’s high unemployment rate had deep structural roots and wasn’t amenable to any quick solution. The author’s diagnosis was that the U.S. economy just wasn’t flexible enough to cope with rapid technological change. The paper was especially critical of programs like unemployment insurance, which it argued actually hurt workers because they reduced the incentive to adjust.
Oh, I forgot to tell you that the paper in question was published in June 1939. Just a few months later, World War II broke out, and the United States, though not yet at war itself, began a large military buildup, finally providing fiscal stimulus on a scale commensurate with the depth of the slump. And, in the two years after that article about the impossibility of rapid job creation was published, U.S. nonfarm employment rose 20 percent, the equivalent of creating 26 million jobs today. So much for structural unemployment. It's all about demand.
And how much was produced in other countries in 1939 ? We were a producer nation then.
If that happened today we'd still be exporting commodities and the producer nations would have rapid job creation. We are not a producer nation anymore..we are a consumer nation. We buy stuff and use stuff and service stuff that is made in other countries.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
