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Old 04-16-2016, 11:42 AM
 
46,963 posts, read 26,005,972 times
Reputation: 29454

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank DeForrest View Post
I look out the window.
Of course. After all, it's a well known fact that variations in air pressure and humidity are visible to the human eye, and that nothing beyond the horizon can affect the local weather patterns. Very useful contribution, thanks.

 
Old 04-16-2016, 04:17 PM
 
17,842 posts, read 14,389,418 times
Reputation: 4113
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapperJohn View Post
Nevertheless, even if there is such decrease in the solar activity, there is a high confidence that the TSI RF variations will be much smaller in magnitude than the projected increased forcing due to GHG. – IPCC AR5 Chapter 8


Section 8.4.1 of the IPCC AR5 Report provides 2 pages of discussion on observations of solar irradiance. But they conclude that all this doesn’t matter for the climate. I agree that the TSI RF variations are much less than projected increased forcing due to the GHG. But the solar-climate connection is probably a lot more complex than this statement implies.

Climate Etc. has had 6 previous posts on the sun-climate connection [link]
What does your reply have to do with your false claim that 'models do not include natural variability'? I linked to WG1 Chapter 9 about climate models that showed your claim was incorrect.

Now you make yet another false claim "they conclude that all this doesn’t matter for the climate" that is shown to be false by your own reference to WG1 Chapter 8 (which you probably haven't read either).

What do contrarian conspiracy blog posts have to do with facts and evidence?

Last edited by Ceist; 04-16-2016 at 04:32 PM..
 
Old 04-16-2016, 04:27 PM
 
Location: StlNoco Mo, where the woodbine twineth
10,020 posts, read 8,641,644 times
Reputation: 14571
Out of all the weather forecasters in my town there is only one guy who will explain why his prediction didn't come true, all the others don't care to discuss it. They just move ahead to their BS for the next day.
 
Old 04-16-2016, 05:52 PM
 
Location: Palo Alto
12,149 posts, read 8,421,542 times
Reputation: 4190
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceist View Post
What does your reply have to do with your false claim that 'models do not include natural variability'? I linked to WG1 Chapter 9 about climate models that showed your claim was incorrect.

Now you make yet another false claim "they conclude that all this doesn’t matter for the climate" that is shown to be false by your own reference to WG1 Chapter 8 (which you probably haven't read either).

What do contrarian conspiracy blog posts have to do with facts and evidence?

It's not a false claim. They admit they do not include solar or cosmic radiation or even volcanoes in the models. You posted a link which you obviously didn't read.
 
Old 04-16-2016, 05:59 PM
 
Location: Sun City West, Arizona
50,833 posts, read 24,347,720 times
Reputation: 32965
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronic65 View Post
For a week or more they have been predicting increasing percentages of rain. Yesterday it was 100% for Saturday night and Sunday. "The computer models all agree" Lots of rain, rain and more rain. I just now looked at the forecast. Percentages down, amounts of rain significantly down. This goes on day after day after day. They never know. Most of the rain we gets comes rather unexpectedly. They are idiots and I am an idiot for putting in credence in their "forecast".

Well, the point I want to make is these are the same people that are so dang certain the mankind is causing global warming or cooling or oceans rising or drought or you name it.

They don't know squat!
Assuming you don't set an alarm clock or some such situation, you can't even predict the time you'll wake up. Yet you think something as complex as weather can be totally accurately predicted. Weather is extremely complex. And yet, OFTEN I've seen weather forecasts that pinpoint the time that precipitation will begin or end, and be right within 10 or 15 minutes.
 
Old 04-16-2016, 06:00 PM
 
Location: Sun City West, Arizona
50,833 posts, read 24,347,720 times
Reputation: 32965
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank DeForrest View Post
I look out the window.
That's not a prediction of future weather.
 
Old 04-16-2016, 06:08 PM
 
17,842 posts, read 14,389,418 times
Reputation: 4113
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrapperJohn View Post
It's not a false claim. They admit they do not include solar or cosmic radiation or even volcanoes in the models. You posted a link which you obviously didn't read.
Try actually reading the IPCC report yourself instead of unsceptically swallowing and repeating whatever some conspiracy blog claims.
 
Old 04-17-2016, 06:10 AM
 
27,307 posts, read 16,230,847 times
Reputation: 12102
IPCC? Already guaranteed to a monstrous lie.
 
Old 04-17-2016, 06:13 AM
 
Location: Londonderry, NH
41,479 posts, read 59,799,372 times
Reputation: 24863
Unfortunately for many the Weather Service is required to practice science instead of magic. That disappoints a lot of people that really believe they can get god to give them sunshine or rain as they want.
 
Old 04-17-2016, 01:38 PM
 
Location: Long Island
57,315 posts, read 26,228,587 times
Reputation: 15648
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronic65 View Post
For a week or more they have been predicting increasing percentages of rain. Yesterday it was 100% for Saturday night and Sunday. "The computer models all agree" Lots of rain, rain and more rain. I just now looked at the forecast. Percentages down, amounts of rain significantly down. This goes on day after day after day. They never know. Most of the rain we gets comes rather unexpectedly. They are idiots and I am an idiot for putting in credence in their "forecast".

Well, the point I want to make is these are the same people that are so dang certain the mankind is causing global warming or cooling or oceans rising or drought or you name it.

They don't know squat!
The seem to forecast hurricanes, tornadoes and other weather events very accurately, what's with the NOAA hatred.
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