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Unlikely as general elections tend to be very different to local elections and European elections which are based on proprtional representation rather than first past the post.
Furthermore May definately won't fight another election and the grass roots Tory Party, who have a lot of influence want a Brexiteer to replace May.
Wht would be the pint of voting for Farage if the Tories had a leader who held similar views to Farage.
Also by diluting the Tory vote in key marginals you could end up with Corbyn's Labour Party in a coalition with the SNP rather than Farages party which currently has no seats at all in coalitio n with the Tories.
That's the real problem with splitting the Tory vote.
Six months ago you might have been right.
But you'll note I didn't say a Hard Brexiteer as leader - the Tory party will elect someone like Jeremy Hunt who is a bit wishy-washy on Brexit rather than a Boris who is slightly less wishy-washy.
Once Tories voters taste huge success in the European elections I think they'll be reluctant to go back to a party that is clearly dying on its arse.
TBP is also taking a lot of votes from Labour in the north.
This idea that it will let in Corbyn won't wash either because he is toxic on the doorstep.
What you're seeing now is the beginnings of a momentum gathering behind TBP which will be hard to stop,
Six months ago you might have been right.
But you'll note I didn't say a Hard Brexiteer as leader - the Tory party will elect someone like Jeremy Hunt who is a bit wishy-washy on Brexit rather than a Boris who is slightly less wishy-washy.
Once Tories voters taste huge success in the European elections I think they'll be reluctant to go back to a party that is clearly dying on its arse.
TBP is also taking a lot of votes from Labour in the north.
This idea that it will let in Corbyn won't wash either because he is toxic on the doorstep.
What you're seeing now is the beginnings of a momentum gathering behind TBP which will be hard to stop,
It's the grass root Tory membership who vote on who will be the leader.
The vote will probably be between a hardline Brexiteer and a more moderate candidate.
The vast majority of the Tory Grassroots are Pro-Brexit and people like Hunt wouldn't stand a chance.
The Tory Grassroots have indicted that unless May goes they will instigate their own vote of no confidence such is the high levels of Pro-Bexit feeling amng the grassroots.
In terms of splitting the Tory vote, who ever wins an election generally relies on the 100 plus marginal seats, any reduction in a Tory vote in these seats could see the real propsect of a Corbyn Government, who might very well form a coalition with the SNP, which is something that could put the future of the UK in doubt never mind the future of Brexit.
Splittng votes and playing populist politics is very dangerous and you can easily end up with the exact thing you don't want.
It's also worth noting that there is no remain opposition party, and it looks like Labour which is now offering a second referendum could secure the vast majority of the remain votes, whilst the Tories vote would be divided by Brexit parties, which is why it is important for the Tories to get rid of May and select a Brexit candidate, who can reclaim any lost votes.
Which is an oxymoron if, as you say, everything is negotiable.
Everything is indeed negotiable.
UK and EU have negotiated down to these three choices. If there are other choices available, please list them.
That's what negotiations are. You start out with each side wanting to have their own way, and then negotiate to a middle ground and look at the choices there.
May started out wanting to negotiate a trade agreement prior to Brexit. EU said that first we negotiate Brexit, then we negotiate a trade agreement. They compromised with a transition period.
UK voted on Brexit but without an idea of what that would involve. Now they realize that some of what they were told was inaccurate. Not knowing the consequences makes negotiations and compromising more difficult, but certainly not impossible.
It's the grass root Tory membership who vote on who will be the leader.
The vote will probably be between a hardline Brexiteer and a more moderate candidate.
The membership vote on whichever two candidates win the ballot amongst Tory MPs.The chances of Tory MPs voting in a Hard Brexiteer as a candidate are remote considering most of them have been trying to thwart Brexit altogether and I can't see one of them being Boris,probably the only one at the moment who could claw back those Tory leavers.
It'll be a Brexiteer-lite against a Remainer.
I've said consistently it's hard for TBP to gain a foothold in a general election but their numbers after just a month in existence and hardly any national TV prominence are impressive.
You've got to remember that unlike us most of the electorate have tuned out of politics altogether.
UK and EU have negotiated down to these three choices. If there are other choices available, please list them.
That's what negotiations are. You start out with each side wanting to have their own way, and then negotiate to a middle ground and look at the choices there.
May started out wanting to negotiate a trade agreement prior to Brexit. EU said that first we negotiate Brexit, then we negotiate a trade agreement. They compromised with a transition period.
UK voted on Brexit but without an idea of what that would involve. Now they realize that some of what they were told was inaccurate. Not knowing the consequences makes negotiations and compromising more difficult, but certainly not impossible.
You're missing the meta-point.
If everything is negotiable, why are there only three options? Surely we could come up with a myriad of options through negotiation. However you're quite firm there are only three options.
If everything is negotiable, why are there only three options? Surely we could come up with a myriad of options through negotiation. However you're quite firm there are only three options.
Therefore either everything is not negotiable...
Or...
There are far more than three options...
Indeed.
We could leave with No Deal,go for WTO Article 24 which could give us two years tariff-free with the EU in order to negotiate a free trade deal.
The trouble is May has capitulated to the EU from the start rather than negotiated with a strong hand.
That's the problem with taking No Deal off the table.
If everything is negotiable, why are there only three options? Surely we could come up with a myriad of options through negotiation. However you're quite firm there are only three options.
Therefore either everything is not negotiable...
Or...
There are far more than three options...
Let me see if I can make this any clearer.
In the beginning there are multiple options. As negotiations proceed, and trades are made, options narrow down.
For example, couple decides to get a divorce. Wife wants the house, the investments, the kids, and monthly child support payments. Husband wants the kids when it is convenient, no child support payments, the house, and the investments.
As the negotiations proceed, they decide that child support payments will be part of the picture, the wife will get primary custody of the kids, the husband will get them every other holiday, summer vacations, and two weekends a month, the wife gets the house, they split their investments with him getting a larger share to compensate for his half of the equity in the house.
When they get down to the actual sign-the-papers time, the husband can, of course, say that he has changed his mind and now wants sole custody of the kids and the house as well. In that case, the negotiations and trades continue.
Everything is negotiable. You just don't get everything you want. Trades are made. Once those trades are made, the options narrow down.
UK wanted to exit the EU, keep the sweet trade deal, no Irish border, and not pay their share of projects they had already committed to.
EU had expectations as well.
Negotiations ensued, trades were made, and here's where things stand.
Those three are certainly not the only options, only the only ones on the table at the moment.
For example, Northern Ireland could join with the Republic of Ireland and either stay in the EU or with the UK, thus eliminating the Irish border issue.
If they want to be part of the single market but not part of the EU, they could explore joining European Economic Area (EEA).
If the UK wants to leave, they could certainly do that. They've already blown past two deadlines to do exactly that.
There are a lot of options to explore and negotiate between now and Halloween.
But UK is not going to get everything it wants. That's not an option.
Indeed.
We could leave with No Deal,go for WTO Article 24 which could give us two years tariff-free with the EU in order to negotiate a free trade deal.
The trouble is May has capitulated to the EU from the start rather than negotiated with a strong hand.
That's the problem with taking No Deal off the table.
Exactly, what "strong hand" did May have?
If the EU had negotiated a sweet deal for Brexit, other EU nations would have wanted the same.
In the beginning there are multiple options. As negotiations proceed, and trades are made, options narrow down.
For example, couple decides to get a divorce. Wife wants the house, the investments, the kids, and monthly child support payments. Husband wants the kids when it is convenient, no child support payments, the house, and the investments.
As the negotiations proceed, they decide that child support payments will be part of the picture, the wife will get primary custody of the kids, the husband will get them every other holiday, summer vacations, and two weekends a month, the wife gets the house, they split their investments with him getting a larger share to compensate for his half of the equity in the house.
When they get down to the actual sign-the-papers time, the husband can, of course, say that he has changed his mind and now wants sole custody of the kids and the house as well. In that case, the negotiations and trades continue.
Everything is negotiable. You just don't get everything you want. Trades are made. Once those trades are made, the options narrow down.
UK wanted to exit the EU, keep the sweet trade deal, no Irish border, and not pay their share of projects they had already committed to.
EU had expectations as well.
Negotiations ensued, trades were made, and here's where things stand.
Those three are certainly not the only options, only the only ones on the table at the moment.
For example, Northern Ireland could join with the Republic of Ireland and either stay in the EU or with the UK, thus eliminating the Irish border issue.
If they want to be part of the single market but not part of the EU, they could explore joining European Economic Area (EEA).
If the UK wants to leave, they could certainly do that. They've already blown past two deadlines to do exactly that.
There are a lot of options to explore and negotiate between now and Halloween.
But UK is not going to get everything it wants. That's not an option.
Not sure why this is so difficult to understand.
So then it's as I said, everything is not negotiable. Duh!
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