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Parliament can't demand anything, even if it passes motions the Goverment they are not law and can be ignored.
As for the extension, it's something the EU would only consider in order to tie up a deal and even if Johnson were to ask for an extension which he won't, the EU are unlikely to grant one.
Unless a new plan is agreed, the new prime minister does not need to do anything for a no-deal Brexit to happen. This is because the UK's departure on 31 October is already written into law. The prime minister could just run the clock down.
If Johnson refuses to do what parliament says, then parliament will make a vote of no confidence and replace Johnson with a remainer.
The new remainer pm will have no problems securing another extension.
If Johnson refuses to do what parliament says, then parliament will make a vote of no confidence and replace Johnson with a remainer.
The new remainer pm will have no problems securing another extension.
A vote of no confidence is unlikely, as is bringing down the Government and even in the unlikely situation this were to happen then Farage and his Brexit party are waiting in the wings.
Farage's Brexit Party is now the largest political party in trhe European Parliament, whilst Boris Johnson's approach has seen the Toiries gain massive support, and they are currently 10 points ahead in the polls.
As for MP's bringing down their own Government and disregarding the views of their own grassroots members, and then going back to them same member in their local constituencies and their local voters in order to be re-elected, it would be the end of their poilitical careers, but would be amusing to watch.
How they voted is made public, and the grasroots members of the Tory Party and very pro-Brexit and would call for deselection of candidates, in other words they would replace them and they would never be members of Parliament ever again, and on top of that the voters would punbish them, and as already pointed out the Brexit Party would stand in most seats, whilst Boris may also fight an election.
You are aware that every Member of the House of Commons is selected by the local area they serve and represent, in the form of the grassroot members of the party, and in terms of the grassroot members they were the ones who recently selected Boris Johnson as the leader of the Conservative Party by a massive majority.
The implicatins for Tory MP's are massive, and in terms of another election, Boris would probably win with the Brexit party in coalition, so things could be even worse for the remainers.
Also it takes at leadt 3 months to have an election, given the campigning and bureaucracy, indeed everyone has to receive a polling card etc, so we are likely to have left alreadt by default even if this unlikely scenario played out.
As for the prospect if the UK breaking up, it's also highly unlikely but if it did there would be no more British Army in Eastern Europe or Britain defending Europe, so that would be another own goal for the EU.
Last edited by Brave New World; 07-30-2019 at 06:46 AM..
It was not always like that. Boris slammed Trump in 2016.
They generally get along, indeed Trump has often been quoted as saying Boris would make a great Prime Minister and Trump's good friend Woody Johnson, who is the US Ambassador in London has publically stated that the relationship betwee the two men will be seansational.
????? Never said were would be. I was responding to the poster pointing out the Scotland's trade with Britain as a reason for Scotland staying with Britain during a Brexit. As if the Irelands won't consider their own interests. I'm going by what they said. I'm sure that the EU would prefer it if the UK didn't leave, but I really wonder why you think the rest of Europe would bend the knee to the UK. I don't think that's a given at all. When did Germany or France EVER consent to bend the knee to Britain???? Or Poland, or Italy? These are old divisions being stirred up. And don't pretend that these divisions haven't been a factor for those supporting Brexit Where did I ever say that I speak for anyone but me? Unless you think that me expressing my opinion means that I think I speak for the world. If that is what you think, might I suggest you look in the mirror? You apparently didn't read BraveNewWorld's post. That poster very clearly said that that the UK might withhold their troops from Europe if the UK doesn't get what it wants. I'm quite sure your prediction will have exactly zero effect on what happens in November 2019 and later. By fracture, I mean the breakup of the UK. Which, as I have said, I think is a real possibility. Northern Ireland voted against Brexit. Perhaps you missed "the troubles" when many people in Northern Ireland and the Brits, along with many other northern Irish, were bombing and shooting each other. You might want to read up on it. It seems to me that a lot of people think that come October 31, one way or the other the disagreements will be over. I think that they will be just beginning.
I don't read line by line rebuttal posts. But I will comment on your last sentence. You are making assumption as to what others "think", then giving that as fact that you are correct about whatever you said. Stick to what people say, not fallacious argument and you might get a point across.
It is almost certain that Parliament will demand that Johnson ask for another extension, they did it to May just to make sure she keeps her promise. If Johnson refuses, then tory rebels will back a vote of no-confidence and get in someone who will do what Parliament says..
If by this you mean that Parliament, mainly the Tories, will use the only power at their disposal, dissolve the government and call for general elections, then.... Not Happening.
That is the nuclear option that none of them will take because they know by now, due to Farage, they will be eviscerated by their own constituents
I don't read line by line rebuttal posts. But I will comment on your last sentence. You are making assumption as to what others "think", then giving that as fact that you are correct about whatever you said. Stick to what people say, not fallacious argument and you might get a point across.
If by this you mean that Parliament, mainly the Tories, will use the only power at their disposal, dissolve the government and call for general elections, then.... Not Happening.
That is the nuclear option that none of them will take because they know by now, due to Farage, they will be eviscerated by their own constituents
This is Boris's game now, not Parliaments.
I agree that would be the nuclear option, as would reviewing our relationship with Europe in terms of defence.
The EU not negotiatring a trade deal would also be a nuclear option, as indeed would applying tariffs on each others good and could lead to millions of job losses in Europe as well as the UK, indeed Germany would be particuarly badly effected and it could cause a Europe wide recession.
However in the end it's elected politicians in the UK abd Europe that will pay the price of unlected Breussels bureaucrats, and it will be the EU that those who lose their jobs will be pointing at and more new populist Anti-EU politicians and leaders could well be the end result.
In terms of the current leaders, Macron is finished and needn't bother even standing in another election, as his days are numbered, whilst Merkel is stepping down, whilst the EU is increasingly disliked across Europe and increasingly divided, the South and countries like Greece were hung out to dry by the Euro crisis, the East wants no part of EU immigration and the Scandinavian countries have always been wary of the EU.
Even in France you have the rise of figures such as Marine Le Pen, and the rise of nationalist parties such as the AfD in Germany.
As Nigel Frage stated, every country in Europe now has it's own Nigel Farage.
TBH - the EU is gradually destroying itself, it's just to blind to even see it and the more arrogant the EU becomes the more it destroys itself.
If by this you mean that Parliament, mainly the Tories, will use the only power at their disposal, dissolve the government and call for general elections, then.... Not Happening.
That is the nuclear option that none of them will take because they know by now, due to Farage, they will be eviscerated by their own constituents
This is Boris's game now, not Parliaments.
No, I mean Labour, Liberal Democrats and a few rebel tories bring down the government. Labour and Liberal Democrats benefit by having Farage taking votes from conservatives. Most conservatives have strong incentives to support the government, but not all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave New World
A vote of no confidence is unlikely, as is bringing down the Government and even in the unlikely situation this were to happen then Farage and his Brexit party are waiting in the wings.
Farage's Brexit Party is now the largest political party in trhe European Parliament, whilst Boris Johnson's approach has seen the Toiries gain massive support, and they are currently 10 points ahead in the polls.
As for MP's bringing down their own Government and disregarding the views of their own grassroots members, and then going back to them same member in their local constituencies and their local voters in order to be re-elected, it would be the end of their poilitical careers, but would be amusing to watch.
Not all conservative MPs are worried about Farage. Some of them have talked about becoming Liberal Democrat MPs, some of them are not planning reelection, some of them think no-deal is so damaging that they will lose anyway and some of them are in remain constituencies and will be punished if they let no-deal happen. There are already some tories who promise they will bring down the government if they let no-deal happen. We also have DUP members who do not want a hard border to Ireland.
The conservative coalition majority is not big, we only need a few rebels to bring down the government. If the parliament has voted for Johnson to go to Brussels and negotiate an extension and he refused, then the same MPs will vote for a no-confidence. They do it because he does not respect the will of the parliament.
Quote:
The implicatins for Tory MP's are massive, and in terms of another election, Boris would probably win with the Brexit party in coalition, so things could be even worse for the remainers.
He probably will. Boris Johnson knows that whatever happens he will win. If some tories betray the party and join Liberal Democrats and Labour, then he will blame them for stopping brexit. If the tories do not stop brexit, then he will get the brexit that he wants.
Either way he will do well in the next election.
Last edited by Camlon; 07-30-2019 at 08:30 AM..
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