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The Conservatives currently have 311 members of Parliament and the DUP have 10 and the Ulster Unionist Party have a further 2.
Labour have 247
SNP have 35
The Liberals have 12
Sein Fein don't take their 7 seats in the House.
There are 16 Independent MP's many of whom support various causes including Brexit, whilst the rest are fairly small political parties with very few MP's.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon
Not all conservative MPs are worried about Farage. Some of them will change to Liberal Democrats, some of them are not planning reelection, some of them think stopping no-deal is more important and some of them are in Remain constituencies and will be punished if they let no-deal happen. There are already some tories who promise they will vote down the government if they let no-deal happen. We also have DUP members who do not want a hard border to Ireland.
There won't be a hard border, Britain won't police the border and neither will the Irish or EU. As for the DUP they are a unionist party there main priority above anything else is keeping Northern Ireland in the United Kingdom. They would probably welcome a hard border.
Yopu seem to have a poor grasp of British politics if you think members of the Conservative Party a party of the right will just defenct to the Liberal Democrats, a party of the left.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon
The conservative coalition majority is not big, we only need a few rebels to bring down the government. If the parliament has voted for Johnson to go to Brussels and negotiate an extension and he refused, then the same MPs will vote for a no-confidence. That should be obvious to anyone.
He probably will. Boris Johnson knows that whatever happens he will win. If some tories betray the party and join Liberal Democrats and Labour, then he will blame them for stopping brexit. If the tories do not stop brexit, then he will be the prime minister who managed to get UK out of the EU.
Either way he will do well in the next election.
See Above.
Boris Johnson is 10 points ahead in the polls and if an election was called he could significantly increase the Tory vote. Johnson wants Brexit done before he calls an election and any attempt to bring down the Government would be pointless. Labour tried a no confidence in terms of Mays Government and it failed and Johnson is a lot more popular now than May was when she won her confidence vote.
Last edited by Brave New World; 07-30-2019 at 08:42 AM..
The Conservatives currently have 311 members of Parliament and the DUP have 10 and the Ulster Unionist Party have a further 2.
Labour have 247
SNP have 35
The Liberals have 12
Sein Fein don't take their seats in the House.
And the parliment has 650 members. The conservative coalition majority is tiny.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave New World
There won't be a hard border, Britain won't police the border and neither will the Irish or EU. As for the DUP they are a unionist party there main priority above anything else is keeping Northern Ireland in the United Kingdom. They would probably welcome a hard border.
That is not what EU says
Spokesman for European Commission president says Irish border infrastructure would be necessary in the event of a no-deal Brexit
...
Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, was caught on tape last week indicating his fellow ministers should not talk about the resumption of border checks publicly for fear of a backlash.
Its kind of obvious, ireland has a responsibility to protect the single market. In addition, EU want to use the border as a leverage against the UK.
DUP will definitely not welcome a hard border, they will get destroyed in the next election if they let that happen.
Quote:
Yopu seem to have a poor grasp of British politics if you think members of the Conservative Party a party of the right will just defenct to the Liberal Democrats, a party of the left.
Not all tories are created equal.
There are rumours the unnamed Conservative Party MP plans to join the Liberal Democrats at their autumn party conference. New Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson is said to be actively wooing a number of Tory MPs.
Its kind of obvious, ireland has a responsibility to protect the single market and UK need to follow WTO rules. In addition, EU want to use the border as a leverage against the UK.
DUP will definitely not welcome a hard border, they will get destroyed in the next election if they let that happen.
Not all tories are created equal.
There are rumours the unnamed Conservative Party MP plans to join the Liberal Democrats at their autumn party conference. New Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson is said to be actively wooing a number of Tory MPs.
It doesn't matter, Johnson has nothing to fear in terms of an election, he's 10 points ahead in the polls and will do well in an election as things stand, as for an election it would take tmonths just to organise one and Johnson will set the date which is likely to be after the 31st October, when we leave.
Parliament doesn't retuen from recess until the 3rd September, and even if a vote of no confidence were to take place, Johnson would have 14 ays to convince MP's to change their minds, before having to go to the Queen. Which would be the 17th September, and then you have to allow time for preparations and camaigning. So the idea of a general election before the 31st October is very unlikely given the timeframe, and Parliament can't stop Johnson from simply leaving Brexit to happen by default and then having an election.
As for Tories defecting on mass to the Liberal Democrats, it's more likely that Labour MP's would defect to the Lib Dems as both parties are left wing indeed Chuka Umunna and a few othere did that.
As for Labour they are currently in crisis and racked by anti semitism scandal and have a Marxist Communist leader who Trump refused to meet and has said he won't share intelligence with, so once Brexit is out of the way, Boris can finally have an election and get rid of Corbyn and his anti semitists.
Last edited by Brave New World; 07-30-2019 at 09:17 AM..
It doesn't matter, Johnson has nothing to fear in terms of an election, he's 10 points ahead in the polls and will do well in an election as things stand, as fr an election it would take three months just to organise one and we leave by default on the 31st October.
So any election would now have to be after we leave and will not be before the 31st October.
As for Tories defecting on mass to the Liberal Democrats, it's more likely that Labour MP's would defect to the Lib Dems as both parties are left wing indeed Chuka Umunna and a few othere did that.
As for Labour they are currently in crisis and racked by antise
This makes no sense. If they vote down the government, then they will make a new coaltion that has one goal, to ask for another extension. Once they get that, then they will vote to get another election.
Also, defecting to Liberal Democrats was only one of the reasons some tories will vote against the government. Others are representing remain constituencies, some are not standing for election, or they think no deal is damaging that they will lose anyway. They will first vote for Johnson to go to Brussels and get another extension, if he refuses then they will bring down the government and find someone that will.
Labour MPs defecting to Liberal Democrats will not hurt the remain movement.
Quote:
Parliament doesn't retuen from recess until the 3rd September, and even if a vote of no confidence were to take place, Johnson would have 14 ays to convince MP's to change their minds, before having to go to the Queen.
They don't need to wait 14 days
"The other is that the government is brought down by a vote of no confidence, in which case an alternative government can be formed within 14 days (including weekends)."
Spokesman for European Commission president says Irish border infrastructure would be necessary in the event of a no-deal Brexit
...
Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, was caught on tape last week indicating his fellow ministers should not talk about the resumption of border checks publicly for fear of a backlash.
Its kind of obvious, ireland has a responsibility to protect the single market. In addition, EU want to use the border as a leverage against the UK.
DUP will definitely not welcome a hard border, they will get destroyed in the next election if they let that happen.
The British and Irish PM;s have said there will be no hard border.
If the EU want to send troops to police the Irish border then best of look to them, it took Britain 50,000 police and troops and constant checkpoints across the 300 miles of border as well as lot of body bags, so I hope the EU are prepared. The Irish paramilitaries have some very good snipers operating in those hills.
This makes no sense. If they vote down the government, then they will make a new coaltion that has one goal, to ask for another extension. Once they get that, then they will vote to get another election.
Also, defecting to Liberal Democrats was only one of the reasons some tories will vote against the government. Others are representing remain constituencies, some are not standing for election, or they think no deal is damaging that they will lose anyway. They will first vote for Johnson to go to Brussels and get another extension, if he refuses then they will bring down the government and find someone that will.
Labour MPs defecting to Liberal Democrats will not hurt the remain movement.
They don't need to wait 14 days
"The other is that the government is brought down by a vote of no confidence, in which case an alternative government can be formed within 14 days (including weekends)."
There is a 14 day stipulation, and Johnson would fight an election and most likely increase the Conservative Majority, as for the timeline it's so tight that any election could now be after we leave.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBC News
If such a vote was called, MPs would have to decide whether they want the current government to continue. For the vote of no confidence to succeed, it might require some Conservative MPs to vote against their own government.
If this passes, the government can stay on for 14 days to try to persuade MPs to change their minds.
Other parties might also try to come together to form a government during this period - but this would require the current prime minister to resign.
If nothing is resolved after 14 days, a general election is automatically triggered.
If such a scenario plays out, Boris Johnson would have to advise the Queen when the election would happen.
Traditionally, this would be as soon as practically possible.
Once the date is known, Parliament shuts down - or dissolves - 25 days before the poll. This allows MPs to campaign for re-election.
Even with a successful no confidence motion, it would be extremely tight to organise a general election before 31 October.
MPs did not call a confidence vote before Westminster went on its summer break. That means 3 September, when Parliament next sits, is now the earliest opportunity to do so.
The British and Irish PM;s have said there will be no hard border.
If the EU want to send troops to police the Irish border then best of look to them, it took Britain 50,000 police and troops and constant checkpoints across the 300 miles of border as well as lot of body bags, so I hope the EU are prepared. The Irish paramilitaries have some very good snipers operating in those hills.
What Ireland means by that is that hard border will never be a permanent solution. Ireland does not have a choice, they have to follow EU rules. Also, they think it is temporary border, so its not that big of a deal.
Things have changed quite a lot since there were Irish paramilitaries. And if were to happen, EU will send in the army. Some snipers are no match for a modern military.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave New World
There is a 14 day stipulation, and Johnson would fight an election and most likely increase the Conservative Majority, as for the timeline it's so tight that any election could now be after we leave.
That is only if the go the general election route. The reason BBC mention that option is because some people are talking about bringing down the government now, and then force a general election. I don't believe that will happen.
Another option is for another government to get a vote of confidence, and they do not have to wait 14 days for that.
What Ireland means by that is that no deal will never happen. Ireland does not have a choice, they have to follow EU rules. Also, they think it is temporate, so its not that big of deal.
Things have changed quite a lot since there were Irish paramilitaries. And if were to happen, EU will send in the army. Some snipers are no match for a modern military.
WTO rules state that trasde should be unhindered and there shoud be no hard borders in such circumstances and the EU must adhere to WTO rules.
If the Irish want to do checks on their side of the border then that's up to them but Britain is not obliged to do anything and the Irish PM has already stated he won't enforce a hard border and there's nothing legally the EU can do about it.
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has said that there is nothing in its rules that would force either the EU or UK to erect a hard Irish border after Brexit.
What is relevant is EU rules, and after EU rules countries outside the single market must comply with EUs import laws. As long as UK do not have a deal with the EU, then ireland cannot have open borders to the UK.
Quote:
If the Irish want to do checks on their side of the border then that's up to them but Britain is not obliged to do anything and the Irish PM has already stated he won't enforce a hard border and there's nothing legally the EU can do about it.
I never said UK is forced to have a hard border, and most likely they won't. It is the EU who will set up border controls.
And when did irish PM say that he won't enforce border controls if a no deal happen. He has in fact said the opposite.
Things have changed quite a lot since there were Irish paramilitaries. And if were to happen, EU will send in the army. Some snipers are no match for a modern military.
Haaaaaaaaaaaaa har........ Now, you have made my day, you really have. The EU will send in the army? Whose army, would that be then? Inform me. The EU doesn't have an army.
So, you think some French soldiers? Maybe some Italians? On Irish soil, trying to stop the IRA? Now, that would be real interesting to see.
The Irish government would collapse if they allowed one foreign soldier on Irish soil. There would be riots.
Think again.
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Now, you have made my day, you really have. The EU will send in the army? Whose army, would that be then? Inform me. The EU doesn't have an army.