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NATO is a voluntary organization, that mean anyone can petition to join. Does Poutine know this? Yes.
Does Poutine know that simply petitioning to join does not automatically equate to membership? Yes.
Does Poutine know the entire NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP)? Yes.
Does Poutine know there is no set timeline for membership? Yes.
Does Poutine know that any NATO member can object to a candidate which would stop the MAP? Yes.
Does Poutine know that a country's internal corruption can stop a candidate? Yes.
Does Poutine know that in 2008 France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and The Netherlands objected to Ukraine's MAP? Yes.
Does Poutine know that the Republic of North Macedonia took 21 yrs to gain membership? Yes.
So how did the US 'poked the bear'? Poutine is more likely to die in office before Ukraine become NATO member. Does Poutine know this? Yes.
Ukraine never even made it into the MAP.
Ukraine didn't just voluntary ask NATO pretty-please to join. George W Bush advanced a plan during the Bucharest conference in 2008 where Ukraine and Georgia would eventually join NATO. Then in 2014, the democratically elected government of Ukraine was swapped (in what many observers called a coup, with CIA fingerprints all over it) with a pro-NATO/anti-Russian government.
When protests broke out in the east, they were often surrounded, and thrown out of buildings and burned to death. This is what led to a few eastern oblasts declaring independence, of which Poroshenko elected to shell school children while they went to school.
So what. What does this have to do with Putin thinking he still has control. He has no authority to demand another state to do what he wants.
The US has no authority to demand anything of other states. When we don't bomb or invade, we employ sanctions, our dominance of the financial system gives that type of aggressive action a long reach at times. Russia doesn't have that financial tool at their disposal, so they use what they have. Down the road as the world continues to move away from US institutions, we may no longer have much pull with non-military aggressive actions. If that becomes the case, the US will be forced to use even more military actions. If we are going to use all these types of actions, we shouldn't be too surprised when other powerful nations use what they have at their disposal.
Ukraine didn't just voluntary ask NATO pretty-please to join. George W Bush advanced a plan during the Bucharest conference in 2008 where Ukraine and Georgia would eventually join NATO. Then in 2014, the democratically elected government of Ukraine was swapped (in what many observers called a coup, with CIA fingerprints all over it) with a pro-NATO/anti-Russian government.
When protests broke out in the east, they were often surrounded, and thrown out of buildings and burned to death. This is what led to a few eastern oblasts declaring independence, of which Poroshenko elected to shell school children while they went to school.
So call it voluntary if you want.
NATO cannot force anyone to join, so yes, we can call it voluntary.
You ever got those AAA solicitation in the (snail)mail? How about AARP? Or insurance? All of them claimed to have you readied to join, all you have to do is fill out some forms and pay some money. The fact that in 2008 five NATO members objected to Ukraine means that what the US may have wanted turned out to be nothing. But at least we can agree that you cannot dispute what I said about how NATO get its members and that Poutine know the entire process.
The US has no authority to demand anything of other states. When we don't bomb or invade, we employ sanctions, our dominance of the financial system gives that type of aggressive action a long reach at times. Russia doesn't have that financial tool at their disposal, so they use what they have. Down the road as the world continues to move away from US institutions, we may no longer have much pull with non-military aggressive actions. If that becomes the case, the US will be forced to use even more military actions. If we are going to use all these types of actions, we shouldn't be too surprised when other powerful nations use what they have at their disposal.
If it ever comes to that, such will not happen in the Western Hemisphere, meaning if we believe that the only option is military, whatever geopolitical situation that prompted that response will be in either Europe or Asia. But not in the Western Hemisphere.
It's a pretty dangerous game you are playing. Figure the payoffs. If you're right, we let a mostly destroyed country into our club. If you are wrong? Armagedón. Would you play those odds in Vegas?
Indeed, the risk/reward calculation is not worth it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boss
Not really. Only a fool would light up the planet with Nukes. Putin would not have any support from China, India or any other country.
While I tend to agree with you, risking MAD would be more than foolish, it would be based on maniacal hubris and/or total insanity.
Yet, Putin does seem unhinged to some extent wanting to rebuild the former Soviet Union and expand it, after its humiliation when it all came crumbling down.
Not very much unlike Germany post WWI.
Frankly, I think it would take a lunatic fringe of the mullahs in Iran to decide to try and wipe out Israel and maybe other western infidels. They could be fanatical enough to allow their religious zealotry to override their will to survive.
Don't forget, the Islamic fanatics think of death for their cause as justified with many rewards in the afterlife.
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