Could Portland support an NHL team? (lease, buyers, income)

[CanuckInPortland]

Originally Posted by bler144

I don't think the economics even come close to working out. The Winterhawks aren't a particularly good comparison, since the cost structure is totally different with much lower ticket prices than an NHL franchise would have to charge.

Also notable that reported average Winterhawk attendance is under 8,000, and that's despite lower base prices and quite a few giveaways/deals that probably cut into revenue. That works because average player salary is around $400/week. NHL players make just a bit more than that. [Minimum to finance an NHL team you'd need attendance at least double that, and ticket prices likely 2-4x higher]

As for Vegas, I think the appeal there isn't just the lack of local competition from other pro sports but that the main drivers are actually:
1) Growing synergy between sports and gambling
2) Vegas has not just a local population but is a major tourism destination that's pretty easy to travel to from anywhere in the country, so you could synergize drawing fans of other teams to Vegas to take in a game either flying in cheap on Spirit air for one day, or tying a game into a longer visit.

Portland...does not have that.

Vegas is increasingly a not if but when scenario for the NHL, they're already allowing them to have fans put down money for season tickets even though the arena isn't even finished and there wouldn't be a team until 2017 at the earliest. But it looks like Vegas might be allowed to get an expansion team instead of having to wait for a relocated franchise.

Next in line after that is Seattle(who still needs an arena), Quebec City, maybe Kansas City, and then Portland is a possibility(and also a third team in Ontario)--but most likely these cities are looking at relocated franchises. But it really depends on how much Paul Allen might desire a team since he's the primary driving force and potential owner. Winterhawks attendence is good for WHL but not necessarily an indicator of possible NHL support(a lot of people just show up for the Hawks once they make the playoffs, but it's still junior league hockey). But Portland is sort of a wild card possibility, but still nothing that serious right now. Teams that might relocate could be the Florida Panthers, though there's a chance Quebec City might want them the most. The NHL isn't going to provide a bunch more opportunities for expansion though.

[bler144]

Originally Posted by CanuckInPortland

Teams that might relocate could be the Florida Panthers, though there's a chance Quebec City might want them the most. The NHL isn't going to provide a bunch more opportunities for expansion though.

Probably not.

I'm not even sure they're totally sold on expanding and that the chatter of doing so isn't a teaser - it gets them some free press attention, it advertises their current financial stability, and it's a way to screen potential relocation sites without highlighting the fact that the need to consider relocation for multiple teams pretty much constantly suggests some actual weaknesses in the league's prospects.

As for Canadian relocation, the shift in exchange rates probably puts a damper on some of those conversations moving forward with speed. A move that made financial sense when the exchange was even is going to be harder to make the numbers work when the CDN$ is losing 17% of its value, and either the players or mgmt end up eating that hit depending on how the contracts are written.

[CanuckInPortland]

Originally Posted by bler144

Probably not.

I'm not even sure they're totally sold on expanding and that the chatter of doing so isn't a teaser - it gets them some free press attention, it advertises their current financial stability, and it's a way to screen potential relocation sites without highlighting the fact that the need to consider relocation for multiple teams pretty much constantly suggests some actual weaknesses in the league's prospects.

As for Canadian relocation, the shift in exchange rates probably puts a damper on some of those conversations moving forward with speed. A move that made financial sense when the exchange was even is going to be harder to make the numbers work when the CDN$ is losing 17% of its value, and either the players or mgmt end up eating that hit depending on how the contracts are written.

The one thing Quebec has going for is an instant fanbase(and if they call them the Nordiques, they already sell the t-shirts and gear all over Quebec)--and a lot of local desire to see the team come back(and there's the old Montreal-Quebec rivalry). Though the exchange rate could lower their chances, and then they have to compete with the increasing number of cities who built brand new arenas before they landed a franchise(and then there's Seattle). Vegas could probably get a team, though they could do well or they could end up like the Florida Panthers(who couldn't fill an arena based on snowbird fans and tourists alone).

The NHL made a bunch of risky moves with Southern/Sunbelt teams in the last 20 years, and some have done okay, though others are constantly on shaky ground. Which is why even a very, very small market like Winnipeg with a very devoted hockey fanbase can potentially draw more revenue than a bunch of much larger market teams in the US.

[The Cactus Leaguer]

Could Portland support an NHL team? Absolutely yes. Will they get one? Maybe. Portland is a good candidate for a team due to the arena and the fan base. But there are other good candidates as well, and ultimately it depends on whether Paul Allen wants to either buy a franchise and/or allow NHL in the Moda Center (he's been in talks to buy NHL teams in recent years, notably the Penguins, but it fell through).

In the current sports climate, if we get another major pro sports team it will be the NHL. Stadium and (for MLB) broadcast territory issues make MLB and NFL a longshot.

To the poster who said you can't have NHL and NBA in this size of a market - I respectfully disagree. We've had plenty of times where we had MLS/NBA/Winterhawks going on simultaneously and all sold out (about 50,000 fans). We can handle it and the people holding the purse strings know it too. Markets such as Minneapolis and Denver aren't that much larger than Portland and they handle NBA, NHL, MLB, and the NFL just fine.

[bler144]

Originally Posted by The Cactus Leaguer

We can handle it and the people holding the purse strings know it too. Markets such as Minneapolis and Denver aren't that much larger than Portland and they handle NBA, NHL, MLB, and the NFL just fine.

The Denver MSA is only about 17% larger, sure, but that obscures that a major sports league draws not just from the MSA but from the broader area (not to mention Portland doesn't have a CO Springs equivalent nearby), and TV revenue is as or possibly more important than filling seats.

And on that front Denver and Mpls are both 50% larger. The better comparison would be St. Louis or Pittsburgh, but both of those franchises are established, and remember that the prospects of the Penguins franchise have been dim several times over the decades, even playing in a region where hockey is more popular, and they've been "saved" largely by dint of having a few all-time greats to market.

[CanuckInPortland]

Originally Posted by bler144

The Denver MSA is only about 17% larger, sure, but that obscures that a major sports league draws not just from the MSA but from the broader area (not to mention Portland doesn't have a CO Springs equivalent nearby), and TV revenue is as or possibly more important than filling seats.

And on that front Denver and Mpls are both 50% larger. The better comparison would be St. Louis or Pittsburgh, but both of those franchises are established, and remember that the prospects of the Penguins franchise have been dim several times over the decades, even playing in a region where hockey is more popular, and they've been "saved" largely by dint of having a few all-time greats to market.

Denver is actually a good comparison to Portland though in terms of a hockey market--you have some interest, though it's not a true hockey town, and if the team does well you'll get good attendance, if the team doesn't do well interest will be low in a few years. A Portland NHL team would draw fans from all of the Willamette Valley and the rest of Oregon, but also SW Washington and even up into Puget Sound--there's more people from Seattle to Eugene than there is in the entire Front Range of Colorado. TV ratings vary a lot from market to market, but they're usually pretty low in the States as it is.

The nice thing about the remote possibility of NHL in Portland is that it's not going to cost anyone other than Paul Allen and local taxpayers aren't going to have to pay for any of it(most likely)---and I'd get to see NHL games without having to fly to California or spring an arm and a leg for Canucks tickets(most expensive in the league).

[bler144]

That assumes Seattle fans gravitate towards Portland vs. Vancouver which is actually a shorter drive. It's not out of the realm of possibility, but I think it's optimistic to think Seattle really turns on to hockey just because Portland picks up a team.

[bostonguy1960]

You'd think the NHL would test the market with a pre-season game. When did Portland last have that?

Even Kansas City had had a couple of them in recent years, but still no prospects for a team in their modern arena.

[urbanlife78]

Originally Posted by bostonguy1960

You'd think the NHL would test the market with a pre-season game. When did Portland last have that?

Even Kansas City had had a couple of them in recent years, but still no prospects for a team in their modern arena.

Apparently the Kings played in Portland for a preseason game in '92 and '93. Not sure if there were a more recent game, that is what I found on a quick internet search.

[The Cactus Leaguer]

Portland is a great hockey market and it has been for generations (Winterhawks, Buckaroos, etc. - very strong support). The NHL knows this, without question.

There have been preseason games at the Rose Garden/Moda Center since it opened in 1995. I don't know when the last one was.

Someone mentioned the media market beyond the MSA - this is a huge deal for MLB and is the main reason Portland has no shot at MLB in the next 10 years. Seattle "owns" the greater Northwestern US market (territory rights), we aren't big enough on our own, and we aren't provincial enough to turn off the Mariners when they come on the television.

However, this is not a deal breaker for hockey. Their structure is similar to MLS/NBA/NFL where the reliance is more weighted toward arena-related revenues and national (not local) broadcast revenues. So to me the unfavorable comparisons to Denver and Minneapolis are apples and oranges.

If Paul Allen wants the NHL and he feels like he can get a team to the Moda Center at a fair price, he will do it and we'll have the NHL in PDX. Until then it's NBA and MLS and that's it for major pro sports.