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A few of us on the 1st page picked the Falcons. I'm not convinced of Seahawks being a good road team this year, too much up and down play.
I picked the Falcons on the 2nd page, and I'm also not convinced Seahawks are a good road team. Also, they were beaten in Seattle by the Cardinals (34-31).
I can agree with the school of thought that the Seahawks aren't a good road team, no problem with that commentary whatsoever. I'm not sure, however, where this thought of Atlanta as a dominant home team comes from. Twelve teams had a better home record than Atlanta this year, so certainly, they aren't a dominant home team, and they lost at home to San Diego, a team even worse than the Cardinals in the standings. Both Atlanta and Seattle lost by three, so do these things even matter?
14 teams had a better road record than Seattle this year. All things considered, that's not a helluva gap, and out of all the talking points we can make, this may be the most insignificant of them all...
I can agree with the school of thought that the Seahawks aren't a good road team, no problem with that commentary whatsoever. I'm not sure, however, where this thought of Atlanta as a dominant home team comes from. Twelve teams had a better home record than Atlanta this year, so certainly, they aren't a dominant home team, and they lost at home to San Diego, a team even worse than the Cardinals in the standings. Both Atlanta and Seattle lost by three, so do these things even matter?
14 teams had a better road record than Seattle this year. All things considered, that's not a helluva gap, and out of all the talking points we can make, this may be the most insignificant of them all...
Its not insignificant at all....
Seattle is 5-0 at home during the playoffs since 2013, 2-2 on the road
They enjoy a huge home field advantage that doesn't typically carry over to the road very well for them.
Seattle is a good team but has been incredibly inconsistent this season particularly on offense
Seahawks have scored over 30 points 5 times all season, Falcons have scored over 30 11 times
I don't think Seattle can hang with the Falcons offensively on the road
Seattle is 5-0 at home during the playoffs since 2013, 2-2 on the road
They enjoy a huge home field advantage that doesn't typically carry over to the road very well for them.
Seattle is a good team but has been incredibly inconsistent this season particularly on offense
Seahawks have scored over 30 points 5 times all season, Falcons have scored over 30 11 times
I don't think Seattle can hang with the Falcons offensively on the road
Conversely, you have a team like Atlanta that does NOT have a huge home field advantage (5-3 this year) who typically lays eggs in the postseason...
But point taken, but if we're in the mood to analyze different statistics, Atlanta hasn't even been in the playoffs in four years. The Falcons are 1-4 in the Matt Ryan era. If all things are on the table, it has to be said that there is a collective dearth of playoff experience on the Falcons side. The last time the Falcons were in the playoffs, they allowed a 20-0 lead to evaporate to Seattle before kicking the game winning field goal, then the very next week, they blew a 17-0 lead to the 49ers, who advanced to the Super Bowl...
You have a team in Seattle that had struggled on the road, but they've won playoff games on the road, and they've come from down 2-3 scores in playoff games to either win (GB 2014) or lose by one score (Atl 2012, Car 2015). I seriously doubt this team is worried about how they'll play on the road. Not even mentioning the back-to-back Super Bowl runs, this team knows how to win in the playoffs...
The same cannot be said of Atlanta. If there is a psychological edge to be had, it decidedly points in the favor of the team that's done it before, and the team that won the earlier game this year. They withstood a full-strength Falcons team in Week 6, while missing five key players and lost Michael Bennett after halftime to that knee injury. If I'm the Falcons coaches, I'm drilling into our guys that the Seahawks beat us at ~75% health. They can play better. I would not put a whole lot of stock into the road record---that's irrelevant to the postseason. If Seattle brings their A-game, like they did on the road at New England, Seattle is gonna win...
My underlying point is for as inconsistent as Seattle was this season, is there a playoff team remaining that dealt with more injuries this year? The Packers are the only team that can make a case, meanwhile Atlanta was probably the healthiest team in the entire league this season and maxed out at 11 wins. Seattle won 10 and their division with crippling injuries that would have caused other franchises to tank...
Bottom line, Seahawks have a winner's pedigree. Atlanta doesn't. Can they win? Of course they can, wouldn't be a surprise. But as someone mentioned upthread, I have virtually zero reason to believe a)the team with the veteran QB with only one career playoff win; b)the team with the coach in his first playoff game as the head guy; c)the team that hasn't been to the playoffs in four years; d)the team with the exploitable defense; e)the team that lost to Seattle playing it's B-game at 75% health just this year---I have zero reason to believe that team can finish the job before the team that's done this before. I can't wait until this game...
That PI was bad and should have been called, it was an easy call and difficult to see how they missed it. That ain't why they lost the game, though:
Atlanta had a 24-17 lead heading into the fourth quarter, when the offense went stale. The Falcons D still held Seattle scoreless until 3:51 left, and when Seattle scored, they missed the PAT so Atlanta's vaunted offense got the ball back with 3:51 up 24-23. Ryan threw an interception, truly it was a drop by Julio Jones that caused that pick. Seattle kicked game winning FG. But the story of the 4th quarter was Atlanta's offense going missing after playing a very good game, blowing a 24-17 lead on the road in less than 4 minutes...
In that 4th Quarter, Matt Ryan went 3/8 for 32 yards and an interception. He took one 13 yard sack. The Falcons had five rushing yards. Atlanta had three offensive possessions in the 4th, only possessed the ball for 3:45 and scored 0 points. Atlanta had 8 penalties that game to Seattle's three. They turned it over twice to Seattle's zero. So let's talk about why and how they really lost the game. Seattle's offense kept the Falcons off the field, and Seattle's defense held serve on three Falcons 4th quarter possessions. Seattle only had 72 rushing yards on the day but kept with it and Wilson played a brilliant fourth quarter. Yes, the missed PI was horrible, but that was the Falcons last play of the game. They had 3 possessions before that where they did absolutely nothing...
Now, without question, it can be assumed it will be improbable that Seattle can duplicate that 4th quarter success in the Georgia Dome, the venue makes a huge difference. Let's also not forget that Wilson was pretty much immobile that day, deep in the throes of his injuries. Some of the players missing that day for Seattle: Rawls, Prosise, Richardson, Clark, Chancellor. Thomas is gone but all these other players are suiting up on Saturday. Specifically, we know Chancellor is a game-changer, and if both running backs are available, it presents a dynamic Seattle didn't have in Game One...
So, I think closer inspection at the circumstances of that game presents a different picture than Atlanta just running away with this. Atlanta was pretty much full strength, they were missing no key players in that game, whereas Seattle was missing a bunch. Truth, the team got better as the year went on and a full strength Falcons team at home cannot be discounted. But this is hardly the same Seahawks team they played in Week 6, and not just because Thomas is gone. To look at Seattle's late-year inconsistencies and declare an automatic Falcons win is fools gold and Atlanta will lose if they have the attitude of "if that PI was called, we would have won the game". They played a good game and still lost to a Seattle team with far more injuries than they had...
Atlanta was in field goal range, that bad call basically decided a close game that's why it was controversial. Also Atlanta improve as the season went on that wasn't a one sided thing. Matt passed to 13 receivers for tounch downs that's a NFL record, and the Falcons are the eight highest scoring team. This game could go either way I believe the game will be close game, but your speaking as if Falcons got here by luck.
Of course with the Falcon schedule against poorer opponents they can score more points. The last six Falcon opponents/wins all have losing records.
That still doesn't comply with the score, it's one thing to win its another to blow out teams. Atlanta definitely got the advantage but I wouldn't Underemtimate Seattle to give an upset. But you can't discredit Atlanta season.
Of course with the Falcon schedule against poorer opponents they can score more points. The last six Falcon opponents/wins all have losing records.
What about the Seahawks last 6 games....4-2
Beat the 4 teams that had losing records
Lost to the only 2 teams they faced that had winning records down the stretch both on the road....one VERY badly to GB
Of course the Seahawks could win this weekend, 3 of the 4 games could go either way very easily, only 1 game is a near lock.
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