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I'm thinking the SB might not be some sort of proof of Peyton being dominating in the passing game. Moreno is maybe a little behind Marshawn Lynch, but if they get serious about using him like Brady used Blount, it could scramble the Seahawks game plan and make what passes Peyton throws more effective. The Seahawks might be tempted to flood the secondary with linebackers dropping back. Long drives involving running plays could eat up the clock. I'm not saying Fox will go that way. But its a credible scenario I think.
... Long drives involving running plays could eat up the clock. I'm not saying Fox will go that way. But its a credible scenario I think.
That's exactly what I'd expect. That has been the game plan for the last few games, and it's worked very well. It's worked well on offense, and it's given the defense time to catch their breath. They had two scoring drives that took over 7 minutes each in the Patriots game. I think there was only one Bronco punt in the whole game. The last Chargers game plan was very similar. I'd be very surprised if it changes much for the SB -- unless they either get way behind and need to pass or get way, way ahead and just want to eat the clock.
Let the countdown officially begin. NFL network is running a 30 minute show on every Super Bowl. I recorded XXXII and XXXIII, so maybe that'll help me get through the week.
Here is a pretty good write up about the Broncos defense. So much has been said about the matchup between the Seahawks defense and the Broncos offense. Overlooked by many is the fact this Broncos defense has overcome a lot of attrition and circumstances and is playing their best ball of the season over the past four games. So good, in fact, that their defensive production compares quite nicely even with the Seahawks defense, and that's after playing some pretty solid offenses in the Chargers and Patriots.
While we are talking about the Broncos defense... I just read this comment over on NFL.com...
Lynch could wear down the Broncos defense. Didn't they say the same thing about Mathews and Blount the past two games? Lynch is definitely better than both of those but Denver's defense has been playing outstanding the past 4 games. Denver's defensive plan the past few games has been to shut down the run at all costs and see if your QB can out-duel Manning (and few can). My guess is that will be the plan again. All the press (rightfully) has been on Manning and the offense but the defense has quietly been playing as well as anyone the last 4 games, and that includes Seattle. Here's the last 4 games defensively for both teams:
DEFENSE LAST 4 GAMES (including playoffs)
PPG: Denver=15; Seattle=14.5
YPG: Denver=268.5; Seattle=295.5
People shouldn't sleep on Denver's defense to hold Seattle's offense the same way they did San Diego and the Patriots.
Interesting eh? I don't want to surprise anyone but in a QB duel I'd probably take Manning over Wilson. The Denver D is playing their best football at the right time as well.
Kees, those comments about defense are valid. I posted some similar stats on the no closed SB thread. The new variable this week is that unlike Rivers and Brady, Wilson is a mobile QB. He is not as good a passer as those two, but he is mobile, so that introduces an interesting dynamic to the game plan. The Broncos biggest challenge is stopping the run. Lynch takes that to a whole new level. The second major challenge is to contain Wilson and make him beat you with his arm from the pocket, something two much more accomplished QBs were unable to do.
This sounds so easy, right? I have no doubt the Seahawks are going to have their moments in this game. The question is can the Broncos defense limit them? Can they shut them down entirely? I am certainly looking forward to finding out.
Denver's losses on the defensive side could hurt here. But Peyton is at least the best single guy out there now. So it seems audacious to assume he can't adapt to the forces he has at hand. Seattle may be the best TEAM on the field, but Peyton is the premier player. Nice mixture.
Denver's losses on the defensive side could hurt here. But Peyton is at least the best single guy out there now. So it seems audacious to assume he can't adapt to the forces he has at hand. Seattle may be the best TEAM on the field, but Peyton is the premier player. Nice mixture.
I'm not certain this is a fair statement. I see what you are trying to say, but consider this. Manning has been a premier player for many years. And he's had some pretty solid supporting cast over the years with Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Edgerin James. There were others, but those are the big three that come to mind with some of Manning's Colts teams. And during that time, he did not have a season that came even close to what he accomplished this season. The closest would probably be 2004, when he had 49 TD passes, and threw for 4,557 yards. But that team folded in the playoffs, going out with a 20-3 whimper against the New England Patriots.
Fast forward to 2012. Manning, older and having had four surgeries, returns to the game amid people questioning if he could even play. Furthermore they questioned who he would throw to on that Broncos team. People could not see the talent of Decker and Thomas just waiting to explode. People say that Manning elevated them to stardom and that is a fair statement. But Manning saw in them what a lot of sports analysts failed to see: teammates who could be major matchup problems for opposing defenses. Manning posted the 2nd best season of his career to that point.
Now think about 2013 and the record setting season that Manning has enjoyed. A record number of passing yards, record high completion, record number of touchdowns. And this is a guy who is no longer in his prime. The reason he has had so much success is the team around him. He is smarter now and he is surrounded by the best team he has ever been on. There is no other way to explain it.
The other idea behind the team concept is that a team that is built around one or two key players is in trouble if those players are missing. The Broncos have experienced a ridiculous amount of injuries this year, and some of them to pretty key players on offense and defense. A lessor team would have succumbed to these injuries. Yet the Broncos arrive at the Super Bowl playing their best ball of the season on defense and are more than capable on offense.
Sure, Manning is a major factor in this team's success. But the fact that the Broncos have built a great TEAM cannot be overlooked. And I'd bet Manning would be the first to say so.
It wasn't mentioned yet but Madden 25 has Denver winning by 3 in OT. I don't believe the OT is right but I do believe that Denver will win and 3 is about right. I'd love for a good ol' pasting like what Elway delivered to them in 1989, 41-14 but it probably won't happen. Looking at the stats, the Denver-Seattle game has very few blowouts. Most games had less than a 2 TD differential. When a blowout does happen (>14 PD), Denver won 9 of them and Seattle won 4.
Ah, the Madden simulation. I understand that thing has been pretty accurate over the years, but I consider it completely coincidence. There are so many variables and factors at play in a real game that a model cannot possibly be a reliable predictor. But I suppose it's as good as any of the "expert" picks, most of which I'm convinced are a combination of drawing names and numbers out of a hat, throwing darts at a dartboard, consorting with a fortune teller, or just all around blithering idiocy (Skip Bayless, I'm talking about you with that last one).
I'm wondering something about Peyton. On TV shows where they were talking about him, they say he loves repeatedly rehearsing passing plays to make sure the receiver goes exactly where he wants them to be. They say he runs practices and demands reruns. And afterward I'm thinking "Has he become OCD over the years?" He wants preparation that mirrors the game. They said he'll not find familiar conditions on Super Bowl day. What he practices will not show up in front of him. He's had unwelcome surprises and big disappointments, leading to a playoff won-loss record below 500. To me, this sounds like the kind of perfectionism that creates OCD. My wife had a boss like that. She was in the office at 2am, forcing an intern to rewrite reports. Now, luck is when preparation meets opportunity, I know that, but I'm wondering if winning is enough for the other players to live with this, especially if its another playoff run ending in losing The Big One.
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