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nevermind that the post you quoted was speculative and incorrect (the average % borrowed is down, for example), why must you persist in wishing everyone would be miserable as you seem to be?
You've openly hoped for a crash, despite the fact you never have and never will be a real property owner in the Triangle.
I don't see an overall bubble, but maybe localized "mini" bubbles. New immigrants to the Triangle seem to chase new construction in the Triangle area, and the area with more new construction sees the home prices inflated a bit. 10-15 years from now, once the new home construction has moved on to some new location, prices in those areas that were priced higher today will see the home prices settle to the mean. Pure speculation on my part, of course, but it seems to fit from what I've seen over my nearly 30 years of living here.
Some people go to see the race. Some go to see the wrecks.
Mike, there are 2 bubbles ready to burst, real estate and student loans. Only a question of time.
The greed now running our economy has passed the tipping point and we've pushed out many middle class families to minimum wage jobs by sending work overseas.
Just saw a Centex ad where mom tells the kids they will move to a new SFH because Centex made the financing work. The kids ask what changed since they were told the family couldn't afford a SFH. Here we go again.
All it will take is a tech/pharma slowdown to start an avalanche of foreclosures and business failures as transplants get dumped on NC's weak safety nets and learn about depressed wages in other fields.
I went through this in New Orleans when the oil industry tanked in the late 1990's. It wasn't pretty to see foreclosure notices on many homes in the West Bank where we lived.
This economy is so propped up and dependent on consumer spending, a crash is waiting to happen.
Sorry to be so negative but we again fail to learn from history such as the 1929 stock market crash, etc. When you don't learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it.
I lost everything in the Louisiana crash and filed bankruptcy. Don't wish this on others but want to warn them that boom areas may easily become Detroits.
This economy is so propped up and dependent on consumer spending, a crash is waiting to happen.
Sorry to be so negative but we again fail to learn from history such as the 1929 stock market crash, etc. When you don't learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it.
I lost everything in the Louisiana crash and filed bankruptcy. Don't wish this on others but want to warn them that boom areas may easily become Detroits.
You are right there is a serious need for caution and vigil. There might even be a reason to expect a crash, but why hope for one?
I am sorry you suffered a loss, but your two comments taken together sound like you like others to suffer what you suffered. You probably don't mean that, but it sure comes across that way.
Mike, there are 2 bubbles ready to burst, real estate and student loans. Only a question of time.
The greed now running our economy has passed the tipping point and we've pushed out many middle class families to minimum wage jobs by sending work overseas.
Just saw a Centex ad where mom tells the kids they will move to a new SFH because Centex made the financing work. The kids ask what changed since they were told the family couldn't afford a SFH. Here we go again.
All it will take is a tech/pharma slowdown to start an avalanche of foreclosures and business failures as transplants get dumped on NC's weak safety nets and learn about depressed wages in other fields.
I went through this in New Orleans when the oil industry tanked in the late 1990's. It wasn't pretty to see foreclosure notices on many homes in the West Bank where we lived.
This economy is so propped up and dependent on consumer spending, a crash is waiting to happen.
Sorry to be so negative but we again fail to learn from history such as the 1929 stock market crash, etc. When you don't learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it.
I lost everything in the Louisiana crash and filed bankruptcy. Don't wish this on others but want to warn them that boom areas may easily become Detroits.
One ad does not make a "bubble." Go get a mortgage and then come back and tell everyone how easy it was. You will be the first to say so in years.
Many people are concerned about the economy over the long term. It does run cycles, and if a stormcrow caws long enough, he will be right at some point. Just like a stopped clock is right twice a day.
This is not merely "negative." It is actually pretty crass and cruel:
Quote:
Originally Posted by saturnfan
Let's hope this crashes again soon.
One can surely reasonably hope that the college tuition bubble will burst, as college costs are out of control. Public and private colleges and universities have run costs so high that it has opened the door for for-profit schools to market overly-expensive "education" that is modeled on selling easy access to overpriced student loans to hopefuls.
But, whether talking about housing or education finance, one can only hope that consumers are making wise choices. Some do. Some clearly do not.
Mortgage qualifications are pretty strict now, but a lot of buyers don't have much money in the bank. Banks really focus on credit score and ratios, but don't care a whole lot about how much money the buyers have saved. The first time buyers under $250,000 are almost always asking sellers to pay closing costs because they don't want to drain their savings on the down payment and closing costs. This isn't everyone, but the majority are like that, and it's similar in higher price points. You also have buyers receiving gift money, or using NC housing for 3% towards their down payment. This means most of these houses have little equity in them, so if the market doesn't increase enough they wont be able to sell for quite a while. Or worse if it drops then you will see distressed sales.
Student loans are an enormous fiasco, but they have nothing to do with the topic - a real estate bubble.
I saw a stat yesterday that FHA (etal) loans were way down as a % of total loans made. When the real estate markets were as weak as they could be 4 years ago, and 80%+ of mortgages were FHA (etal) with very low down payment, that was the time to be most concerned.
As to a bubble, it's always related to a)prices rising at an unsustainable rate and now we've learned b) unqualified borrowers getting mortgages. And by unqualified, I mean "cannot afford the payment and won't make the payment".
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